Gary Kavanagh

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Gary Kavanagh

Gary Kavanagh

@GL_Kavanagh

All tweets are a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Director of the Edmund Burke Institute. Deputy Editor of Gript.

Katılım Eylül 2014
1.9K Takip Edilen4.3K Takipçiler
David W. Higgins
David W. Higgins@higginsdavidw·
Galway West I asked Claude to run 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the PR-STV counts, from the partial FPV tally. Ran each under 4 different sets of transfer assumptions. Seán Kyne TD
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John
John@John_360__·
@GL_Kavanagh Yeah, fair. Although it looks to me as if plenty of FG voters have lend their vote to the SD’s in a bid to stop Hutch and SF.
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Gary Kavanagh
Gary Kavanagh@GL_Kavanagh·
So far Aontu are getting absolutely bodied in Dublin Central. Multiple boxes with a single vote for Smyth. The day may improve but it's looking like the sort of result which should cause a very serious internal discussion.
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Gary Kavanagh
Gary Kavanagh@GL_Kavanagh·
@jccfergie I meant having to deal with people asking you for money and then spinning out about it if you don't immediately say yes.
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Gary Kavanagh
Gary Kavanagh@GL_Kavanagh·
@Poachy51 @John_360__ The problem is expectations and internal options. FF have been beaten down by Martin so thoroughly that half them are thanking him for keeping them alive, and O'Callaghan is determined to miss his shot. SF expects to win, and they have competent alternatives to Mary Lou.
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Gary Kavanagh
Gary Kavanagh@GL_Kavanagh·
@John_360__ Fair, I should have said good day for Gary Gannon's organisational capabilities.
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John
John@John_360__·
@GL_Kavanagh They won’t even attempt 2 candidates next time. One will probably take a seat for the SocDems in the Dublin European Elections.
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John
John@John_360__·
@GL_Kavanagh I’m in 0 doubt at this point that Daniel Ennis hasn’t just won but won comfortably. Disaster for Mary Lou.
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Gary Kavanagh
Gary Kavanagh@GL_Kavanagh·
@anspailpin I think sometimes the better option, if you don't have a strong candidate, is not to waste money and time running.
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An Spailpín Fánach
An Spailpín Fánach@anspailpin·
@GL_Kavanagh I don't know what a serious internal discussion will do. Aontú might have no other candidate to run.
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Gary Kavanagh
Gary Kavanagh@GL_Kavanagh·
@fitzfromdublin I would say both Boylan and Steenson would expect some of their votes to have gone their way.
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Gary Kavanagh
Gary Kavanagh@GL_Kavanagh·
@John_360__ Although I'm not sure how many FF transfers there will be given their lack of first-preference votes.
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Gary Kavanagh
Gary Kavanagh@GL_Kavanagh·
I should clarify this to say that 'good' and 'decent' should be read as - one of these two is going to win.
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Gary Kavanagh
Gary Kavanagh@GL_Kavanagh·
SF looking good. SD's doing decently. Malachy Steenson getting a respectable vote but fatally undermined by Hutch, who is himself doing quite well. Multiple boxes where the Steenson and Hutch result, if it had been combined in a single person, would have been first.
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Gary Kavanagh
Gary Kavanagh@GL_Kavanagh·
On Galway what I want to particularly see will be the transfer patterns to Thomas/Independent Ireland. They're expected to be weak, but if that's not the case it will be an interesting signpost.
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Gary Kavanagh
Gary Kavanagh@GL_Kavanagh·
@John_360__ There's currently about 2% between Boylan and Ennis on first preferences, with less than half of boxes tallied. We'll see how it goes.
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John
John@John_360__·
@GL_Kavanagh How exactly are SF looking good when the SD’s are so obviously about to win?
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John
John@john_bravo6·
@griptmedia All very well. We do not need 55 euro discussion and canapes. We need to be working towards Monster Meetings again.
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Gary Kavanagh
Gary Kavanagh@GL_Kavanagh·
We're having a bit of a shindig.
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Gary Kavanagh
Gary Kavanagh@GL_Kavanagh·
We're told Dr Carpenter has an active warrant for her arrest, and that that warrant is tied to an allegation that she provided drugs to a parent who coerced her daughter to take them, so central to her medical practice, and yet she was able to register with the Medical Council.
gript@griptmedia

Dr Carpenter, now living in Dublin, is wanted in relation to providing abortion-inducing drugs to a minor across state lines. It is alleged she sent pills to the teen’s mother, and the girl wanted to keep the baby, calling 911 after taking the pills. gript.ie/us-abortion-do…

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Keşfet

@higginsdavidw @John_360__ @jccfergie @Poachy51 @anspailpin @fitzfromdublin @elonmusk @BarackObama