IRAN—HORMUZ—UAE—TRUMP’S GENIUS
Channel 14: Tamir Morag @Tamir114
“If we liken the interaction between the United States and Iran to a game of poker, the breaking of the blockade by the U.S. Navy is not equivalent to Trump winning a round of the game. It is far more like the president simply snatching the cards out of Iran’s hands.
“Tehran has almost no additional cards left beyond Hormuz — except, perhaps, disrupting shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as well. That is a significantly weaker card, and its implementation depends on the Houthis’ willingness, which at the moment is far from certain. This is the reason for the Iranian frenzy in recent hours and for what currently looks like a desperate decision to reignite the region.
“It must be understood that even before the ace Trump pulled today — breaking the Iranian blockade while the American blockade on Hormuz continues to strangle Iran — the Gulf states had already managed to erode the effectiveness of closing the strait by roughly 25% to 30%.
“They achieved this by pumping millions of barrels of oil per day through overland pipeline infrastructure that bypasses Hormuz: approximately four million barrels of Saudi oil to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, and another roughly 1.5 million barrels from the UAE to the port of Fujairah [Me: Now on Fire after an Iranian drone attack] on the Gulf of Oman.
“If we assume that from now on the U.S. Navy will escort only a few individual tankers per day out of Hormuz, each such tanker carries on average between one and two million additional barrels — and that already significantly reduces the effectiveness of the Iranian card.
“The Iranian blockade of Hormuz, which some initially praised as “strategic genius,” is turning out to be a fatal mistake that may ultimately lead to the collapse of the regime. President Trump, whom certain circles love to mock, has turned the tables on the Iranians and pressed the very gun they tried to aim at America and the world against their own heads.”
English
