Geopolitical Monitor

Iran's selective passage list in the Strait of Hormuz reveals a logic that Alfred Thayer Mahan's framework cannot explain — but a ninth-century Islamic jurist anticipated with precision. geopoliticalmonitor.com/who-controls-t…

Examining the latest developments in the US-Israel Iran war; how President Trump’s latest attacks on NATO allies are producing a new response; and mounting global economic fallout from supply chain disruptions in the Persian Gulf. geopoliticalmonitor.com/geopolitics-we…

In the heartland of ancient Persia, the lines in the sand of West Asia’s geoeconomic map are being redrawn. geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-geoeconomi…

The security of a few narrow waterways underpins much of the global economy, and one of them has effectively been closed. geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-strait-of-…

Examining the cycle of accumulation, complacency, and disposal that characterized US strategic mineral stockpiling through the 20th century. geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-rise-and-f…

Recent history shows that durable security arrangements depend less on formal promises than on a combination of dense verification, credible sponsorship, and pre-agreed enforcement – all of which are proving elusive in the Ukraine war. geopoliticalmonitor.com/illusory-secur…

Structural constraints of an increasingly multipolar global system mitigate against the risk of the Iran conflict spiraling into World War III. geopoliticalmonitor.com/how-multipolar…

Domestic and external setbacks are mounting for the Kremlin, causing longtime supporters to jump ship. Putin is not performing strength. He is managing fear. geopoliticalmonitor.com/from-tehran-to…

The Iran war is not just a military gamble, but an inflation tax of Washington’s own making. geopoliticalmonitor.com/from-hormuz-to…

The future of the strait is not shaped by decisive breakthroughs. It is shaped by the continuous, indefinite management of a divide that cannot be closed, a delicate choreography that is at once necessary, strategic, and perpetually unstable. geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-enduring-d…

The Iran war is generating the high-inflation, low-growth environment that is a historical incubator for radicalized politics. Examining upcoming elections where these political forces could be decisive. geopoliticalmonitor.com/iran-war-will-…

Examining the latest developments in the US-Israel Iran war, including signs of possible TACO fatigue in the markets, the Houthis entrance into the war, and the increasingly scorched earth character of target selection. geopoliticalmonitor.com/geopolitics-we…

The petrodollar system has always hinged on a US security guarantee to Gulf states, but the durability of this guarantee is now being called into question by the Iran war. geopoliticalmonitor.com/sunset-over-bi…

Gulf leaders are being forced to decide whether to remain in a defensive posture or join offensive operations against Iran to reestablish credibility. The wrong move could lock the region into a cycle of infrastructure warfare that lasts years. geopoliticalmonitor.com/is-the-gcc-rea…

Despite its role as an essential input in ammunition manufacturing, antimony has not been mined in the United States since the mid-1990s. It is among the critical minerals earmarked for domestic procurement and stockpiling by the US government... geopoliticalmonitor.com/critical-miner…

Washington’s diplomatic outreach will discover to its detriment that there is no ‘right’ regime insider to work with in Iran. geopoliticalmonitor.com/washington-is-…

The evolving dynamics of the Atlantic–Sahel corridor highlight a fundamental shift in the nature of contemporary conflict, where strategic competition unfolds across fragmented actors and... geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-atlantic-s…

Indonesia is adapting to the new era of great power competition by openly engaging with all sides, but this balancing act is not without its risks. geopoliticalmonitor.com/geostrategic-h…

geopoliticalmonitor.com/geoeconomic-cr… The Ukraine war demonstrated how quickly neutral corners of global financial infrastructure can devolve into levers of geoeconomic influence. The lesson is not lost on Europe, but balances still must be struck between sovereignty and dependency.

The RSF has leveraged a combination of territorial control and family-based corporate networks to create one of the richest statelets in existence, with geopolitical weight that extends far beyond Sudan’s borders. geopoliticalmonitor.com/warlords-portf…