Gabriel Dantas, CNPI

بعد قليل بيان هام للحرس الثوري الإيراني.

AI won't kill fundamental investing because more information doesn't kill alpha. We have decades of priors here (Excel, Bloomberg, alt data...all democratized analysis & information gathering, and didn't kill alpha). As measured by factor volatility, stocks are less efficient and more alpha-rich than ever (and empirically, the ability of multi-eight figure market neutral multi-managers to consistently grind out 10-15% returns in an idio-maximized way proves this point...15 years ago a $10bn hedge fund was considered to be impossibly large). Innovations in investment process have shifted alpha pools, for sure, and systematic investors have arbitraged many old, reliable fundamental alpha pools. But as the players at the poker table have shifted, the constraints of those new players have created new alpha pools. Long duration fundamental investing has been gutted, and definitionally competing against a group of non-fundamental (quants, factor/thematic investors, indexers) and duration-constrained (multi's) investors should be a huge competitive advantage, long term (however frustrating in the near term). To wit, a 9-month thesis where I "look through" the next two prints is now considered a long-term thesis. Rigorous investment process serves investment judgment, but the real alpha generation fits a power-law distribution and there is some ineffable "nose for money" that the great investors have, that cannot be trained necessarily. Investing is a very hard game, that cannot be distilled to a reinforcement learning sandbox (by the time it is, the regime will have shifted and new drivers move stocks). AI has no sense of materiality, no true discernment, and the lack of context of N of 1 situations (if you haven't noticed, we are living in an N of 1 world!). There is a irreducible element of humanness that is critical to success in fundamental investing, and that won't change. What does this all mean? In my opinion, there is no better time to be starting a careers as an investor. My first year on the desk, I spent a lot of time doing grunt work: updating Nielsen files, updating models for my PM, creating same store sales master files, building question lists for CEO meetings, etc. This is grunt work. I can automate this all now, and get more quickly to the deep, value added parts of learning the investment process. Will AI drive alpha? This is a debate people are having, which I find sort of silly. When used correctly, by the right investor, of course it will. Ask any great investor if they had another 4 hours of research time per day whether the quality of their research would improve? That's kind of a dumb question...of course it will. Compressing the mechanical part of your job to focus more on the artisanal part of the job is Step 1, and with agentic systems accelerating fast is now in the strike zone of possibility. This is before we start to layer in a broader monitoring net and use cases to go deeper and build more rigor, finding signals in unstructured data that were missed before, as well as turning your investment genius into a co-pilot pattern recognition system. The future is very bright for fundamental investing, in my opinion.

SHOW DE OFERTAS B3 🔥 Promoção do dia: EMBJ3. Quem gostava a R$ 105 em Janeiro, R$ 72 é preço agora. Desconto de 31%.

Soya Exports (Annual): 1. 🇧🇷 Brazil: $42.9 billion 2. 🇺🇸 United States: $24.6 billion 3. 🇵🇾 Paraguay: $3.2 billion 4. 🇨🇦 Canada: $2.5 billion 5. 🇦🇷 Argentina: $1.8 billion 6. 🇺🇦 Ukraine: $1.3 billion 7. 🇺🇾 Uruguay: $1.2 billion 8. 🇷🇺 Russia: $357.6 million 9. 🇳🇱 Netherlands: $233.4 million 10. 🇳🇬 Nigeria: $167.7 million 11. 🇭🇷 Croatia: $119 million 12. 🇷🇴 Romania: $117.5 million 13. 🇦🇹 Austria: $98.5 million 14. 🇧🇴 Bolivia: $81.1 million 15. 🇭🇺 Hungary: $76.3 million Note: Data for the year 2024. Source: World's Top Exports

Inflação do IBGE: 4% O que me pega é TV e Computador estarem com deflação de 50% CONFIA!!!!

🚨 MICROSOFT ABOUT TO SUE OPENAI & AMAZON >be microsoft >invest $1B in openai >gets exclusive azure cloud deal >invest another $10B+ >gets rights to 49% of profits +IP >Azure goes brrrrrr >Altman lies to board, quietly launches ChatGPT >board fires him for being a lying manipulative snake >Satya goes to war for Altman. saves his entire career >Altman retvrns in 5 days >immediately purges everyone who purged him >full control. no oversight. thanks Satya! >fast forward to 2025 >OpenAI restructures from non-profit to PBC >MSFT $13.8B is now worth $135B. 10x return >plus 27% of OpenAI >but gives up cloud exclusivity + profit share >KEEPS API clause >all API calls contractually MUST route through Azure >Satya thinks life is good lol >5 months later >Sam Altman becomes strong enough to betray you >"raises $110B round" >doesn't need satya daddy's money anymore >announces $50B deal with AMAZON >$138B in AWS cloud commitments >amazon and openai claim they built some cope called a "Stateful Runtime Environment" >Microsoft lawyers hmmm >Altman: it's not what it looks like. i can totally explain >so it's technically not an API call because it's "stateful" >and it's a... "Runtime Experience" >totally di!erent thing >pls ignore the TCP packets lol >Microsoft engineers look at the SRE architecture >"THIS IS NOT TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE without violating the contract." *Satya finds out he's been cucked* Microsoft exec literally tells FT: "We know our contract. We will sue them if they breach it." >AWS quietly gives employees a memo on which words are legally safe lmao >can say: "powered by" or "enabled by" or "integrates with" OpenAI >cannot say: "enables access to" or "calls on" ChatGPT >also cannot suggest frontier models are "available on AWS" Microsoft: "If Amazon and OpenAI want to take a bet on the creativity of their contractual lawyers, I would back us, not them." Scam Altman strikes AGAIN.