This is HUGE...
Today's daily volume on $SMH was bigger than any session in almost 2 years!
The last time this happened in August 5 2024 it marked the bottom low, will that happen again or is this the start of something bigger?
This is turning into of the worst days for Semis all year.
Market seems to be reacting to a few things:
- A Chinese state-backed company has started mass-producing its own DUV lithography machines. The market is worried that the development could reduce China’s dependence on Western suppliers like ASML and weigh on future equipment demand
- NVDA backstopping OpenAI’s new datacenter buildout with $250B is making the market think that things are getting a bit too circular
- NVDA investing $5B into a new AI startup once again is creating fears of circular financing
- China just had their second largest IPO ever and it was a memory company which is now making the market think that oversupply of memory and a peak in prices is underway
Trump tried to calm down markets by saying that the US and Iran are talking, which got Oil down 7%, but isn’t really helping the chip stocks. Usually, a drop on oil that big would explode high beta names like semis but the market seems to be taking the China buildout threat seriously.
Effectively, the market is saying that China supply coming through means the constraints that create the pricing/earnings power for the semis is diminishing. I’m not sure if this is actually true, especially given how new these reports are, but it goes to show how fragile the entire semi trade is if a headline like this can wipe out $500B+ from the entire sector today.
As always, if semis go down hard, the software names go up which is why software is rallying heavy today.
Are you buying the semi dip or is this a legitimate concern?
$MU $SNDK $INTC $NVDA $AMD
BREAKING: SpaceX hits a NEW ALL-TIME LOW, wiping out $1.515 trillion from its market cap in just 27 trading days.
IPO buyers are now sitting on an 18.5% loss.
🚨 US MEMORY STOCKS ARE CRASHING
$1 Trillion has been wiped out from US stocks in the last 3 hours, and 50% of that came from just 6 memory stocks.
US memory stocks are crashing on news that China has begun producing its own DUV chipmaking machines.
Investors worry China can now build more chip factories on its own, adding supply and pushing memory chip prices down, exactly the prices that have been driving these stocks higher all year.
- Nvidia: -4.37%, $300B wiped out
- SK Hynix: -9.48%, $95B wiped out
- Micron: -4.69%, $82B wiped out
- SanDisk: -10.42%, $26B wiped out
- Western Digital: -5.93%, $21B wiped out
- Seagate: -5.59%, $17B wiped out
In total, $541 billion has been wiped out from just these 6 memory stocks.