GammaReaper

💀☢️$NKE earnings - long vol worked I'm agnostic long vs short vol. I take what the market gives me. In this case, the odds-on favorite trade was to go long vol, so that's the trade I put on. $NKE beat, but weak fundamentals = stock tanks. My trade is to wait for the market to open. I never trade overnight because the markets aren't liquid and price discovery has not occurred. Position: IC (47.5/48.5/54/56) debit $0.41 at last night's close $NKE Move: ~10% vs 8.2% implied IV: Crushed from 115% to 34% IC in the money at open so time to exit: sl @ $0.79 ROI +93%, +93 bp portfolio return using my standard 1% alloc capital Stock continued to fall so I could’ve made more, but that's not the trade. Bulls. Bears. Pigs.

@Mr_Derivatives $SPX options pricing in 68% chance of +/-2.9% move between now and end of April. Seems like you are a better buyer than seller of vol

1) $SPX will need to drop 7.3% from current levels to break the March lows of 6,316. 2) $SPX will need to drop 4.25% from current levels to make April a red month. #1, probably unlikely to happen this month imho. #2, possible still imho.

@jimcramer Here we go again...

So why are the futures not down more? I think it is because there is a hopefulness that is dissipated by 4:00 a.m.

3/4 $NKE break-even move -7.8% to $48.7 / +8.5% to $57.31

$NKE earnings tonight AC. IV at 137.3%: ATM breakeven straddle move: -7.8%/+8.5%. Long vol or get crushed? Full 4-step playbook below in pictures. #OptionsTrading

2/4 $NKE 3 DTE ATM straddles cost = $4.31 with IV = 115.2%

@traderhc I'm seeing $VVIX at 133??

@traderhc Spot VIX isn't $VIX. $VIX is 30 days. You need to look at $VIX1D and $ViX9D to get a more accurate view for the VIX term current Structure: 30.4 30.6 31.5 respectively. Shows a much different picture.

$VIX at 31 and everyone's panicking. But the vol surface is telling a different story. The term structure stayed in contango. VIX3M sitting below spot $VIX by over 6%. That's the options market saying "I'm hedging, not fleeing." Implied vol is running nearly double realized vol right now. 91st percentile gap. Someone selling this fear is about to get paid. When $VIX spikes above 30 but the curve refuses to invert, it resolves lower about 75% of the time within a month. $SPY closed right on its session low at 633. I think we're looking at 650-660 inside two weeks. Backwardation is the real danger signal. We don't have it. Does anyone disagree with this read?

@traderhc Correction. $ViX1D is 34.3 not 30.3 backwardation 1d to 30D.

@k1rallik @grok is this a scam

What if you had 25 min and Claude on March 25? Google dropped the TurboQuant paper at 9am. Free. No code. Just math proving AI memory can be compressed 6x. By 9:15, anyone who understood the implications knew what was coming for memory stocks. The problem - most people can't read a 30-page quantization paper over breakfast. But AI can. You paste the paper into Claude. What if AI’s real edge isn’t explaining research, but turning it into a trading bot in minutes? A fresh wallet made 3,317 predictions in days and turned $1,500 into $83,115 in 72 hours on Polymarket BTC markets. That doesn’t look human. It looks algorithmic. And that is why this changes everything. The paper was free. Claude cost $20 a month. The bot took minutes to build.

@itsCblast Worst day as a % or $? Big difference

WORST DAY OF MY TRADING CAREER 🩸

$GME earnings tonight AC. IV at 102.9%: ATM breakeven straddle move: -7.2%/+7.8%. Long vol or get crushed? Full 4-step playbook below in pictures. Data h/t: @unusual_whales @MarketChmln #OptionsTrading