@PhilMickelson Hope everything is ok. Praying for you and your family.
Hope to see you at Shinnecock this summer and grab the Grand Slam!
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Gavbear90
13.9K posts
@aalex2 @ClayTravis Clay has a law degree from Vandy and just donated $10 million to the school.
I think he can parse the difference. If you have read his books he always clowns on the other SEC schools academically other than Florida.
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@ClayTravis No. Vanderbilt is a small, private school that has always been competitive. They are nothing like the rest of the SEC schools.
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Vanderbilt University announces they admitted just 1382 students out of 48,720 regular decision applicants. That’s an acceptance rate of 2.8%. SEC and southern ACC schools, led by Vanderbilt, are white hot when it comes to nationwide desirability.
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Next to president itself, AG is the most important position in the entire executive branch in our time. We must have a stone cold killer there.
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@magdajtaylor In your expert opinion, when was this window?
My take as a mid-30s male is 2012-2017 (Weinstein)
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there’s a lot of talk of hookup culture but my sense is that there was a very small window in which women could pursue genuinely casual, no strings attached sex. social media/dating apps do not allow for anonymous one night stands. we should be critiquing situationship culture
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Gavbear90 retweetledi
Jackson being the 1 in an 8-1 vote and writing a dissent longer than the opinion indicates no interest in even the pretense of legitimacy. She’s not preserving any capital because there’s no reason to do so. You can predict her vote on every case which comes before the court from now until we are liberated
All you have to do is ask yourself what ruling would best serve the interests of gay race communists. And then you can read forty pages of absolute nonsense about why she ruled that way
We don’t have to live under an illegitimate government. We don’t have to allow a barely literate baboon ideologue to desecrate one of our highest institutions. Don’t they like to say that when someone shows you who they are, believe them? Believe them
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"Median Ebitda multiples for $10bn+ RIAs swelled to 21x last year: Piper Sandler"
Same article, literally:
"Investment bank Piper Sandler says asset accumulation alone will no longer garner top-of-market multiples for RIAs, as buyers increasingly reward demonstrable organic growth and specialized services."
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@wealthMAinsider My bet is that we see one of these mega RIAs try their hand in the public market within 18 months
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"$34bn Allworth Financial pursuing new investor: Sources"
Multiple aggregators have tried to recap and have NOT been able to get the multiple/valuation they wanted.
So what does that mean for the equity? The equity Advisors took when the sold? Is it worth what they say its worth on paper? Or is it worth less?
Something is worth what someone will pay.
What if no one is willing to pay?
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@wealthMAinsider where's the valuation land for an RIA like that?
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$175m AUM advisor in Minneapolis who sold to PE in December 2025
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@Gavbear90 @TruthGundlach Happens to all prudent money managers during manias.
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The the incestuous relationship of private equity and private credit is not going to end well...it’s not a natural situation.
--@TruthGundlach speaking to all those who scoffed when I put the two intellectually proximate
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Private Equity is rolling up commercial Mechanical/HVAC, Electrical, & Plumbing (MEP)
Buy independents at 4x - 6x, integrate, and build a regional MEP platform
Exit at 9x - 11x EBITDA for the MEP platform
Same playbook as home services, different entry/exit multiples
With the MEP public comps on the rise (20x+ EV/EBITDA) due to data center exposure, the PE playbook is evolving
Now, I’m hearing more private equity backed-MEP platforms eyeing an IPO exit
Buy at 4x - 6x, build, and IPO exit at 15x+
Will Schryver@Will_Schryver
Private Equity-backed HVAC platform American Residential Services (ARS) is exploring a sale $3.5 billion expected EV, per Reuters ~17.5x 2026E EBITDA of $200 million ~20.0x 2025 EBITDA of $175 million Here’s why ARS might not get $3.5B: ARS started fireside chats so they’re early in the sale process ~$175 million Adj. EBITDA in 2025 and now mgmt is estimating $200 million for 2026E, or ~14%+ y/y growth That’s a lot, particularly if it’s all organic growth ARS would need a number of deals under LOI and try to get full credit for the pro forma adjusted EBITDA And ARS effectively stopped M&A two years ago, so it’s unlikely Second, ARS trading at a similar multiple as Sila (17x) Redwood (17x) and now Champions (18.5x) could be a stretch given their “big box” exposure Home Depot & Lowe’s are great for volume but its lower margin work and introduces concentration risks That’s another headwind to value Finally, estimated $1.5 billion 2026 revenue would only represent ~3.2% CAGR in top line revenue since 2022 ~13% EBITDA margins on a platform growing ~3% a year is not exactly a super compelling story Here’s an expected valuation range: $2.7B (15.5x @ $175M EBITDA) - Bear Case $3.4B (17x @ $200M EBITDA) - Bull Case
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Gavbear90 retweetledi
@Will_Schryver Think Apex Services will try and do a real exit soon. I know they are ~2.5 years into their CV.
My opinion too big for a new PE. But trying to go public would be very interesting.
Curious what your bear/bull case would be for both options!
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Private Equity-backed HVAC platform American Residential Services (ARS) is exploring a sale
$3.5 billion expected EV, per Reuters
~17.5x 2026E EBITDA of $200 million
~20.0x 2025 EBITDA of $175 million
Here’s why ARS might not get $3.5B:
ARS started fireside chats so they’re early in the sale process
~$175 million Adj. EBITDA in 2025 and now mgmt is estimating $200 million for 2026E, or ~14%+ y/y growth
That’s a lot, particularly if it’s all organic growth
ARS would need a number of deals under LOI and try to get full credit for the pro forma adjusted EBITDA
And ARS effectively stopped M&A two years ago, so it’s unlikely
Second, ARS trading at a similar multiple as Sila (17x) Redwood (17x) and now Champions (18.5x) could be a stretch given their “big box” exposure
Home Depot & Lowe’s are great for volume but its lower margin work and introduces concentration risks
That’s another headwind to value
Finally, estimated $1.5 billion 2026 revenue would only represent ~3.2% CAGR in top line revenue since 2022
~13% EBITDA margins on a platform growing ~3% a year is not exactly a super compelling story
Here’s an expected valuation range:
$2.7B (15.5x @ $175M EBITDA) - Bear Case
$3.4B (17x @ $200M EBITDA) - Bull Case
Will Schryver@Will_Schryver
At least 4 more private equity-backed residential HVAC platforms will trade this year >$20 million EBITDA platforms Bookmark it
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@DavidBCollum Gating redemptions is a feature of the asset class to prevent a run. Daily/unlimited liquidity doesn’t make sense for private market assets.
Retail didn’t understand what they bought and are now bitching.
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There is a total bankrun on private credit and probably private equity that is held in check by gating the redemptions. Within no time, the remaining assets will be easy to mark to market: it will be zero. I think it started when Harvard Management Corp began muttering about trimming their alternative investments. Were there earlier foreshadowings?
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This is a first
Broker: ~$450k EBITDA HVAC opportunity, asking $2 million
Me: Where are the rest of the financials? I only see 18 months.
Broker: He bought the business 18 months ago
Me: So he just bought it and is now trying to flip it for ~4.5x on <$500k EBITDA?
Broker: Yes
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@dealflow_guy Interesting we are still seeing robust activity in all 3 for now but AI comes up in every conversation obviously
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Talked with a buyer who has historically been very active in White Collar.
Billions in AUM.
Top buyers.
That sector now considered toxic for them.
Leaning heavier into Trades.
We all know why.
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People who say Ben or Bari are "Israel First" might not realize the history of why the US supports Israel to begin with, why they are such an important ally to the United States. I have never believed people who care about Israel don't care about America.
Noelle@Anita2422361806
@realsashastone Love Megyn Kelly. Think Ben Shapiro is Israel first, not America first. Candace Owens is a grifter and a mean girl.
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