GeoShockwave — Markets & Geopolitics

@GlobeEyeNews Iran threatened Saudi Arabia directly last week. Saudi Arabia just expelled their diplomats. UAE is considering joining the Hormuz coalition. The countries Iran warned to “clarify their positions” just did exactly that — in the opposite direction Iran intended.

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia orders Iranian Embassy staff to leave the country within 24 hours.

@NoLimitGains The best thing about this post is the last paragraph. The worst thing about this post is everything between the first and last paragraph. The analysis stands on its own. It doesn’t need the résumé attached.

**IMPORTANT** The S&P didn’t drop because of the war. It was going to happen regardless, and the war just accelerated it. The debt, the overvalued markets, consumers living off credit cards, and private credit defaults hitting levels we haven’t seen since 2008. The Fed can’t even cut rates, they’re trapped. The market was broken long before the war even started. I’ve been saying this for months. Some people listened, but most didn’t. I’m not saying this to brag. I’m saying it because you deserve to know who you’re actually listening to. While everyone else was bullish and screaming for higher prices, I wasn’t, because there was absolutely no reason to be bullish. The people who followed me early and took the warnings seriously are sitting in cash right now, and they’re very happy. Even better, everything I said turned out to be true. Every stock I said would go up did go up. We didn’t just outperform the S&P, we actually made money during a time when 95% of people were losing money. Those who didn’t listen will probably panic-sell at the bottom, and I’ll happily buy their discounted shares, just not yet. I don’t do this for the money. I make enough from my own investments, and I think I’ve already proved that. Anyway, if you’re new here, don’t worry. I’ll keep sharing everything publicly because I genuinely want you to win. All I’m asking is that you turn on post notifications so you don’t miss anything important. On another note, enjoy your weekend.

@GlobeEyeNews If China brokers Hormuz, China owns the outcome. That’s not a favor — that’s a transfer of regional influence from Washington to Beijing wrapped in a ceasefire. The US might reopen the strait and lose the Middle East in the same deal.

President Donald Trump says he wants China to get involved in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

@NoLimitGains The ethanol link is the most underappreciated part of this thesis. It’s not just food inflation — it’s a structural demand floor that connects oil prices directly to corn prices. If E15 gets approved year-round, that’s a permanent demand increase baked into legislation.

🚨 Added CORN to my portfolio Everyone’s talking about oil. Nobody’s talking about food. Higher fuel costs hit farming and fertilizer prices are moving (we already hold NTR). Grain exports are getting disrupted. Corn goes into feed, fuel and food production. Remember what happened in 2022 during the Russia/Ukraine conflict? The options flow on CORN has been extremely aggressive. Big money buying calls at the 25 strike expiring August 2026. A third of US corn production goes into ethanol. Ethanol is blended into every gallon of gas you pump. Regular gas is already 10% ethanol. When oil gets expensive, demand for ethanol goes up. Corn follows. Gas is up 27% since Feb 28. Farm groups are now pushing Congress to approve year-round E15 sales, 15% ethanol blended fuel instead of 10%. Anyway, I like the setup here. Not a call. Just sharing my positioning.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ For those who don’t already know, I share all my moves here publicly. The market moves fast so my posts are very time-sensitive. Turn on notifications so you don’t miss anything, this is important.

@GlobeEyeNews The counterterrorism director resigned. NATO allies refused to help. Switzerland halted arms exports. At what point does the coalition of the willing become a coalition of one?

BREAKING: Switzerland officially halts arms exports to the US due to the Iran war.

@NoLimitGains Frozen housing market. Stressed consumer. Overleveraged corporate balance sheets. $9 trillion rolling over. $108 oil. A Fed with no good options. These aren’t separate problems — they’re the same problem with different labels.

Nobody can sell their house. Nobody can afford to buy one. Retail can barely afford groceries. Companies can’t afford to refinance their debt at current rates. $9 trillion of US debt rolls over this year. But sure, we’re good.

@GlobeEyeNews Every F-35 that lands damaged is a maintenance, parts, and readiness problem. The US doesn’t have an infinite supply of fifth-generation fighters. Attrition at this pace has a ceiling — and nobody’s talking about what happens when you approach it.

BREAKING: US F-35 fighter jet damaged by suspected Iranian fire makes emergency landing, CNN reports.

@NoLimitGains Europe said no to Hormuz coalition. Europe is now paying 32% more for gas overnight with storage at 27% heading into next winter. The countries that stayed out of the war are discovering there’s no such thing as staying out of the consequences.

🚨 European natural gas prices up 32% this morning. TTF was at €53 yesterday. It spiked to €70 at open after two waves of Iranian strikes caused extensive damage at Ras Laffan in Qatar. The world’s largest LNG hub. QatarEnergy’s 77 million tonne per year export system is effectively shut. That’s 20% of global LNG supply offline. Europe was already walking in with gas storage at 27%. Lowest for this time of year since 2022. Asia is now bidding for every available cargo on the spot market. Ships heading to Europe are being rerouted east for higher bids. Europe keeps losing. HSBC said this week European gas prices will be 40% higher than previously forecast for all of 2026 and stay elevated into 2027. The European Commission is already talking about emergency price caps. This doesn’t look good. I’ll keep you updated as things develop. Follow with notifications, this is very important.

@JacobElProdigy @NoLimitGains Holding for a month and then cutting anyway is just delayed inflation. The Fed doesn’t escape the dilemma — it just picks which quarter the pain lands in.

@GeoShockwave @NoLimitGains Odds are, they'll hold for a month or two and then push up inflation with cuts. Gotta keep the stock market happy. Higher gas is expected every summer anyways.

This is what $108 oil actually does to you.

@GlobeEyeNews The intelligence chief confirming Iran isn’t rebuilding nuclear capabilities removes the one justification that had bipartisan support for the war. If the nuclear threat is gone, what the US is fighting for now needs a clearer answer than it’s getting.

BREAKING: U.S. intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard says Iran is not rebuilding its nuclear enrichment capabilities that were destroyed last year.

@NoLimitGains The 18:1 liquidity mismatch is the number that matters more than the default rate. Private credit investors can’t exit. When defaults hit 9.2% in an illiquid market, the problem doesn’t show up gradually — it shows up all at once when a redemption gate gets triggered.

🚨 Private credit defaults just surpassed 2008 levels. 9.2% default rate. $1.8 trillion market. 18:1 liquidity mismatch. The rest writes itself.

@NoLimitGains 700 missiles. 3,600 drones. 2,200 dead. No NATO support. No deal. No Larijani. Trump threatening to leave the alliance that won the Cold War. And Vance just called it smart. History will have a lot to say about this week.

🚨 OVERNIGHT UPDATES JUST DROPPED: – Israel killed Ali Larijani. Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. The most powerful figure left in the regime. Iran confirmed it – Also killed Gholamreza Soleimani, head of the Basij. The paramilitary force that killed thousands of protesters in January. Iran confirmed that too – Netanyahu posted a photo of himself on the phone with one caption: “Prime Minister orders the elimination of senior Iranian regime officials” – Explosions reported near the Saadabad Palace complex in northern Tehran. Strikes also hit Karaj, Shahriar, and Shiraz – A 3-day-old infant, his 2-year-old sister, their mother, and grandmother all killed in one strike in Arak – Amnesty International confirmed the US was responsible for the school strike that killed 170+ people. Most of them schoolgirls – Trump slammed Joe Kent after his resignation. Called him “weak on security” – US dropped multiple 5,000-POUND deep penetrator bombs on hardened missile sites along Iran’s coastline by the Strait – More than a dozen MQ-9 Reaper drones lost in combat. Shot down by Iran or destroyed on the ground – Iran-aligned militia hit the US Embassy in Baghdad with drones and rockets. 6 of 7 projectiles intercepted. No injuries – A man and woman killed by shrapnel in Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv after Iranian missile launches overnight – IRGC started what it calls a “rapid phase” of airstrikes against Israeli and US targets – State Department ordered ALL embassies worldwide to immediately review security – Trump suggested the US might LEAVE NATO after allies refused to help with Hormuz – White House economic adviser admitted the war will “hurt” consumers but said that’s “really the last of our concerns right now” – 26 South Korean ships and 183 crew members stranded near the Strait – Red Cross said Iranian civilians are paying “a heavy price” – Israel’s UN Ambassador said there are “alternative leaders in Iran” who could open the door to diplomacy – Vance backed the war publicly for the first time: “We have a smart president. I trust Trump to get the job done” – Iran has now fired approximately 700 missiles and 3,600 drones total since the war began – Total death toll across the region now exceeds 2,200 Larijani is dead. The regime’s inner circle is being dismantled. Trump is threatening to leave NATO. And there is still no path to ending this. The next few days will be crazy, so I’ll keep you updated on everything. Turn on notifications, this is VERY important.

@GlobeEyeNews Russia sharing drone technology with Iran while Iran’s drone factories are being bombed is a logistics problem as much as a capability one. The question is whether the transfer happens fast enough to matter before the conflict ends or escalates further.

BREAKING: Russia is increasing military support to Iran by sharing satellite intelligence and enhanced drone technology, according to WSJ.

@GlobeEyeNews Iran threatened UAE ports directly two weeks ago. Now UAE is considering joining the coalition against Iran. Tehran may have miscalculated badly who it could afford to antagonize.

BREAKING: UAE could join the coalition led by the US to secure the Strait of Hormuz, says adviser Anwar Gargash.

@GlobeEyeNews Kent is out. Which means everyone who disagreed and stayed is now fully committed to the opposite conclusion. Resignations clarify who’s left in the room — and what they’re willing to sign off on.

BREAKING: Joe Kent Director of the National Counterterrorism Center officially resigns. “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

@NoLimitGains Selling a position that’s still in a clean uptrend with no resolution in sight is early. XLE hasn’t priced a 3-month closure yet. If Capital Economics is right about $150 oil, this trim looks premature in 30 days.

My portfolio says thanks for keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed 👏 Just sold a bit. I’ll reallocate it somewhere else later.

@NoLimitGains A Gold Star husband, 11 deployments, Trump loyalist just told the president this war is a repeat of Iraq — in a public letter on X. If that doesn’t move the needle in Washington, nothing will. And that might be the most important data point of the entire conflict.

🚨 THE DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER JUST RESIGNED OVER THE IRAN WAR: Joe Kent just posted his resignation letter to Trump on X. He said Iran “posed no imminent threat to our nation.” Said the US started this war “due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.” Called it “the same tactic the Israelis used to draw us into the disastrous Iraq war.” This is not some random critic… Combat veteran, 11 deployments, Gold Star husband, Trump appointee running one of the most sensitive national security roles in government. He told Trump directly: “You can reverse course and chart a new path, or you can allow us to slip further toward decline and chaos.” First major resignation from inside the administration over this war. I’ll keep sharing updates as things develop, just like I always do. Follow with notifications. This is EXTREMELY important.

@NoLimitGains The most bullish thing an exec can do is sell $1.7B and still be one of the largest individual shareholders in the company. That’s not an exit. That’s liquidity management.

Jensen Huang at GTC yesterday: “I see at least $1 trillion in revenue through 2027.” Nvidia executives over the past 12 months: sold over $1.7 billion in shares. Watch what they do, not what they say.

@NoLimitGains Private credit exists specifically because it’s less regulated and less transparent than public markets. Banks moving $257B into it isn’t a bug — it’s the feature. The question is who finds out what’s in there first when something goes wrong.

🚨 US banks have quietly funneled $257 billion into private credit markets Do I even need to say it?