Geoff Brewer #FBPE #FBR #FBNHS #NAFO

NEW: Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russian forces intensified ground attacks across the theater in the last week, which is consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces have launched their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive. Syrskyi stated on March 23 that Russian forces intensified offensive actions across the theater between March 17 to 20, attacking 619 times over the four-day period. ISW assessed on March 21 that Russian forces likely began their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt after a significant increase in mechanized and motorized assaults in various sectors of the front since March 17, a period of intensified strikes, and the movement of heavy equipment and troops on the frontline. Syrskyi stated that the Russian military command is trying to bring up new forces and is counting on deteriorating spring weather conditions, like fog, to reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes for future assaults. Syrskyi stated that the Russian military command deployed tens of thousands of servicemembers into highly attritional infantry-led assaults that resulted in more than 6,090 killed and wounded during the four-day period, for a daily average of about 1,520 casualties. Syrskyi stated that Russian forces lost a total of 8,710 troops during the last week (between roughly March 17 and 23). Such a high casualty rate is unsustainable given Russia’s current recruitment rates and would likely degrade Russia’s ability to wage such large assaults in the mid- to long-term. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026 but will likely make some tactical gains at a significant cost. Russian officials are already setting expectations in the domestic information space for slow advances and high casualties, however, with one Russian State Duma deputy stating on March 23 that all wars have casualties but that Russian forces will try to minimize casualties by advancing at a “leisurely pace” toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.

Ukraine struck the Port of Primorsk, one of Russia’s largest Baltic oil export terminals.