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Sanikidze

Sanikidze

@GeorgeDeGeorge

Geopolitical analyst | Tracking Cold War 2.0, corridors & proxy wars | 30 yrs on the frontlines of global dysfunction

Tbilisi Katılım Ekim 2014
1.4K Takip Edilen798 Takipçiler
Sanikidze
Sanikidze@GeorgeDeGeorge·
That would be a profound shift in the EU’s political philosophy and practice. von der Leyen is actively pushing it and clearly sees recent political shifts, especially in Hungary, as an opening. But removing unanimity in foreign policy remains politically explosive. It would likely require treaty reform or aggressive treaty reinterpretation. Ireland, Slovakia and others will resist hard.
Chay Bowes@BowesChay

Ursula von der Leyen wants to move EU states away from unanimous voting "We need to use the momentum of the Hungarian elections to push for qualified majority voting.”

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Sanikidze
Sanikidze@GeorgeDeGeorge·
The louder the “BREAKING” headlines get, the less certain the situation usually is. This feels like one of those moments where waiting is smarter than forecasting.
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Sanikidze@GeorgeDeGeorge·
Ok, I’m going to do this too: 1. Pink Floyd 2. The Tiger Lillies 3. Portishead 4. Massive Attack 5. Tom Waits 5. Acid Pauli 6. Wax Tailor 7. Thievery Corporation 8. Ali Farka Toure 9. Gia Kancheli 10. Yann Tiersen 11. Vladimir Vysotsky 12. Metallica 13. The Doors 14. Deep Purple 15. Kochani Orkestar
Бианка@BiankaB12

Those are always tough to assemble 🤨 1. Tool 2. A Perfect Circle 3. Nine Inch Nails 4. Dépêche mode 5. Nightwish 5. Faith No More / Mike Patton 6. Massive Attack 7. Stromae 8. Chet Faker 9. Front Line Assembly 10. Soundgarden 11. Dropkick Murphys 12. Portishead 13. Thiery Corporation 14. Léonard Cohen 15. Paradise Lost Notable mentions for Björk, Joy Division, Aphex Twin, Nick Cave and John Coltrane.

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Sanikidze
Sanikidze@GeorgeDeGeorge·
As global fragmentation deepens, states sitting on critical geography, corridors, energy routes and logistics networks are becoming too strategically important for the West to seriously confront over democratic erosion. They may publicly say otherwise, but increasingly they prefer stability over pluralism, connectivity over liberalism, and strategic control over democratic standards. Because in periods of geopolitical stress, strong leaders are easier partners than unstable democracies, and strategic geography suddenly becomes worth more than Western lectures about democracy. Ankara, Baku and Tbilisi understand this very well. Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Georgia resemble different versions of the same political model: elections without meaningful institutional pluralism, shrinking political space, centralised executive power, and regimes built around stability, control and survival.
Gönül Tol@gonultol

In this short video, I explain what drove yesterday’s court decision targeting the CHP leadership, why it is happening now, and what it means for Turkey’s political future. A few key points: • The ruling could pave the way for the return of former CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who lost every major election during his 13 years at the helm of the party — precisely what makes him a convenient opponent for Erdogan. • Erdogan knows he can no longer win genuinely free and fair elections. And he realized that jailing Ekrem Imamoglu was not enough, because Ozgur Ozel kept pushing back relentlessly, holding more than 100 rallies across the country. • But this is about more than consolidating power. The CHP is not just another opposition party. It was founded by Atatürk, the founder of modern Turkey. By throwing the CHP into chaos, Erdogan is also trying to weaken Atatürk’s legacy and the powerful connection the party still has with millions of Turks. • The days ahead will be extremely difficult for the CHP. But things may not unfold as smoothly for Erdogan as he hopes. Listen here 👇

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Gönül Tol
Gönül Tol@gonultol·
In this short video, I explain what drove yesterday’s court decision targeting the CHP leadership, why it is happening now, and what it means for Turkey’s political future. A few key points: • The ruling could pave the way for the return of former CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who lost every major election during his 13 years at the helm of the party — precisely what makes him a convenient opponent for Erdogan. • Erdogan knows he can no longer win genuinely free and fair elections. And he realized that jailing Ekrem Imamoglu was not enough, because Ozgur Ozel kept pushing back relentlessly, holding more than 100 rallies across the country. • But this is about more than consolidating power. The CHP is not just another opposition party. It was founded by Atatürk, the founder of modern Turkey. By throwing the CHP into chaos, Erdogan is also trying to weaken Atatürk’s legacy and the powerful connection the party still has with millions of Turks. • The days ahead will be extremely difficult for the CHP. But things may not unfold as smoothly for Erdogan as he hopes. Listen here 👇
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Sanikidze
Sanikidze@GeorgeDeGeorge·
I wish he was. He is not.
Formula NEWS | English@FormulaGe

Zaza Shatirishvili, a pro-government commentator and philosopher associated with billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, has published another letter through Georgian government-aligned media outlets, reviving conspiracy theories about the so-called “deep state.” In the letter, Shatirishvili claimed it is now a “confirmed fact” that even U.S. President Donald Trump is controlled by the “deep state,” arguing that Trump’s supposed war against it had turned out to be “a complete farce.” “It is already clear to everyone that Donald Trump himself is directed by the deep state,” Shatirishvili wrote. “This is no longer just an opinion, but an established fact.” He argued that Trump had failed to expose “oligarchic families,” had not taken steps contradicting alleged “deep state” policies, had not fully defeated what he called the “pseudo-liberal agenda” and “LGBTQ+ propaganda,” and had failed to end military conflicts he once promised to stop. Instead, he claimed, Trump had “become an instigator of war himself” in line with the interests of a so-called “global war party.” Shatirishvili further alleged that the “deep state” was carrying out a “rebranding process” aimed at weakening Europe while preserving the United States as a global superpower. He also accused Washington of remaining silent over unspecified “inhumane events” taking place “in the middle of Europe.” According to him, the Georgian government is “obliged” to show society “the full truth,” which he described as “far more bitter and grave than the stench of decay coming from the European continent.”

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Sanikidze
Sanikidze@GeorgeDeGeorge·
🇹🇷 Domestic politics is centralising through growing authoritarian pressure on courts, municipalities, universities and the opposition itself. Markets are panicking because investors increasingly see political risk overwhelming economic orthodoxy. The state is defending the lira by selling reserves, burning FX liquidity and liquidating US Treasuries to contain panic. Erdogan is closing institutional space by tightening control over opposition municipalities, academia and political competition. NATO is treating Türkiye as indispensable because Europe’s southern flank, Black Sea security, Middle Corridor logistics and regional crisis management increasingly run through Ankara, whether Brussels likes it or not. Germany is sending Patriots. The military is displaying power at EFES-2026 as Türkiye positions itself as a central strategic actor in the emerging regional order. Meanwhile, foreign investors are being asked to believe in “orthodox policy” through high interest rates, fiscal discipline and technocratic messaging, while at the same time courts, decrees and political interventions continue to destroy predictability. That is modern Türkiye in one picture: geopolitically rising, financially strained, strategically indispensable and institutionally hardening.
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GermanForeignOffice
GermanForeignOffice@GermanyDiplo·
Germany is taking responsibility for leading this process within NATO. Our goal is a new burden shifting within NATO that reflects Germany’s and Europe’s economic and military potential. 2/4
Johann Wadephul@AussenMinDE

Deutschland stellt sich seiner Führungsverantwortung in der NATO. Unser Ziel ist eine neue Lastenverteilung im NATO-Bündnis, die Deutschlands und Europas wirtschaftlichem und militärischem Potenzial entspricht. 2/4

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Sanikidze@GeorgeDeGeorge·
NATO’s centre of gravity is shifting south whether many Europeans fully realise it yet or not. The proposed NATO fuel pipeline through Türkiye, Bulgaria and Romania is one example of this shift from symbolic alliance politics toward operational strategic infrastructure. Ankara is now better positioned than many European actors to give NATO renewed strategic direction at a time when NATO and European security are becoming almost indistinguishable.
Levent Kemal@leventkemaI

My latest: Türkiye appears ready to offer NATO and its European partners a reflection of the proactive regional policies it has pursued in recent years: a new strategic architecture, more functional partnership, and a vision of multi-centered stability. turkiyetoday.com/opinion/ankara…

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Sanikidze@GeorgeDeGeorge·
Energy, food, rare earths, Hormuz, Taiwan, Ukraine and trade are one simultaneous pressure system.
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Reuters
Reuters@Reuters·
President's Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin signed a joint statement on strategic coordination, with President Xi warning of a return to the ‘law of the jungle’ and urged China and Russia to oppose unilateral actions and promote fair global governance system reut.rs/4eY95qd
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Sanikidze@GeorgeDeGeorge·
While previous presidents failed America in the face of systemic confrontation with China and Russia, Trump’s America is behaving suicidally by weakening America’s own alliances.
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Sanikidze
Sanikidze@GeorgeDeGeorge·
Europe may be weaker than America materially, but right now it may be strategically more capable of listening to reality. The problem is not that debates about China, Russia and systemic confrontation are absent in the US. The problem is that Trump’s White House appears incapable of absorbing them. For years, I criticised Europe for complacency, fragmentation and strategic weakness. That criticism still stands. But Europe may retain one advantage over Trump’s America: serious debates about Russia, China, security, industrial decline and systemic confrontation still have some chance of influencing political decisions and state institutions. The same debates also exist in the United States. The difference is that Trump’s White House appears insulated from expert advice, institutional memory and strategic correction.
Clash Report@clashreport

Former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken: If we're competing with China one-on-one, that's a game that we may lose. Their market's much bigger, their manufacturing is three times our manufacturing. Purchasing power parity is greater than ours, more papers, more patents, a bigger navy — you can go down the list. But when we're aligned with Europe, with Japan, with Korea, with India, with Australia, with Canada, we go from about 25% of world GDP to 50 or 60%. A lot harder for China to ignore.

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Sanikidze
Sanikidze@GeorgeDeGeorge·
The United States security establishment has been looking for a wartime leader throughout the 21st century, but American democracy and the electorate have repeatedly failed to produce one. For more than two decades, American security institutions sensed that China, Russia and later Iran were not simply “competing” with the US, but gradually building the foundations for undermining American dominance and the US-led global order itself. The problem is that every administration underestimated the seriousness, scale and long-term nature of this confrontation. Trump may be the worst failure of all, because after the second invasion of Ukraine, China’s and Russia’s true intentions were in his face, unhidden. Unlike previous presidents, who at least tried to preserve and strengthen alliances, Trump pressures America’s allies while remaining strikingly conciliatory toward its adversaries. Europe, NATO allies, Canada, Japan and others are treated more harshly than Russia, China or even Iran, with whom Trump still appears obsessed with securing “deals”. This is not realism. It is a strategic blunder. The United States still possesses overwhelming military, financial and technological power. Unlike Europe, it still has the capacity to project hard power globally and mobilise alliances. Yet Washington increasingly restrains itself against adversaries while weaponising pressure against allies. That is a hallmark not of confidence, but of systemic exhaustion and internal fragmentation. The White House still behaves as if this confrontation can be solved transactionally through tariffs, summits, personal diplomacy and selective deals. It cannot. If the US wants to preserve its position, it will have to do the opposite of what it is doing now: strengthen alliances, rebuild industrial capacity, restore institutional coherence and confront adversaries systematically across every domain: economic, financial, technological, logistical and geopolitical. Trump has neither the courage nor the competence to do that, nor will he listen to those in the security establishment who have a sober understanding of the crisis America is facing now.
Sanikidze@GeorgeDeGeorge

Trump wants deals. The security establishment sees systemic confrontation. That contradiction explains much of America’s fragmented policy toward China, Russia and Iran.

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Sanikidze@GeorgeDeGeorge·
@Noahpinion China and Russia covertly started that a decade ago against the US and its allies… proxies. In February 2022 they announced it publicly.
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