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It is:-
1. Highly unlikely Iran will agree to a phased ceasefire without any major concession.
2. Concessions Iran seeks are a no-go for GCC/US (Toll for Hormuz).
3. US and Israel aren't in any mood to have a real peace without victory. They want Gaza/Lebanon style ceasefire
Clash Report@clashreport
"Islamabad Accord" US, Iran Weigh Ceasefire Plan by Pakistan Iran & the U.S. have received Pakistan-mediated ceasefire plan including immediate truce & Hormuz reopening within days, with 15-20 days for broader deal, as regional countries try to stabilize global oil flows. clashreport.com/world/articles…
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At 100 trades the margin of error is roughly ±10% — wide enough to make a losing strategy look promising. Around 400 trades results start to stabilize. 1000+ is where you can actually trust the direction. And that's on one asset — consistency across multiple assets matters just as much as the total count.
CC @ansariyakub @GgrimReaperrr @maximilien2020 as you all had the same question
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Are you thinking, "I won 7 out of 10 trades, so my win rate is 70%"?
This is a common misunderstanding of probability.
Yes, mathematically, if you win 7 out of 10 trades, your win rate is 70%.
But that does not represent the true win rate of the strategy.
What matters in probability is sample size.
If the sample size is small, the results are heavily influenced by randomness.
Now suppose that strategy you thought had a 70% win rate gradually drops to 40% as you keep increasing the number of trades.
You will probably think something like this.
"The system stopped working."
"The market changed."
No.
You simply were not evaluating the strategy properly.
Probability only reveals itself through a large sample size.
Understanding this basic premise is the starting point of all preparation.
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There won't be any Islamabad Accord. Simply because Islamabad doesn't have relations with one of the parties waging war in Iran.
See why it's important to have ties with everyone?
The Spectator Index@spectatorindex
BREAKING: Proposal, dubbed the 'Islamabad Accord', would involve a ceasefire that would take effect 'immediately' and involve 'reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with 15-20 days to finalise a broader agreement', according to Reuters report.
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The market is pricing in a ceasefire right now as I explained it would.
S&P futures are up and have added around $600 BILLION (so far)
Be careful, if the cease fire falls through we will most likely see a HUGE drop.
We are in for a very volatile few days.
I will keep you updated as I always do.
Buckle up!

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Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has been in contact "all night long" with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. - Reuters
Faytuks Network@FaytuksNetwork
The final agreement is expected to include Iranian commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets. - Reuters
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