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aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1

@GnothiSeAuton

Gnothi Se Auton

THΞRΞ Katılım Ocak 2013
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Maine
Maine@TheMaineWonk·
A video from LAX is going viral after a Delta passenger grabbed the mic from behind the boarding gate and started making his own announcements. Not all heroes wear capes friends.
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aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1
aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1@GnothiSeAuton·
Yellen (Feb 3, 2014), S&P 500 rose ~6% in 1st month, higher in following months, and multiple record highs in 2014. Bernanke (Feb 1, 2006), S&P 500 rose ~0.7% in 1st month (modest, but positive). Resilient in early months before longer-term issues (housing/financial crisis) emerged later.
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Michael | Hypermarkets
Michael | Hypermarkets@itsmichaelluu·
HISTORY WILL REPEAT: When Jerome Powell became the NEW FED CHAIR in February 2018, SPY crash 4%. Kevin Warsh is the NEW FED CHAIR on May 15, 2026. He does his first FOMC on June 17. History shows the average max drawdown under a new Fed Chair is -20%. SPY has NEVER been kind to regime change at the Fed.
Michael | Hypermarkets tweet media
Michael | Hypermarkets@itsmichaelluu

92% probability SPY crashes in May–June. Back under $700 → targeting $650. 5 massive reasons: 1. Fed instability + Kevin Warsh test = policy shock Markets hate uncertainty and the Fed is entering one of its most unstable periods in years. With political pressure rising and potential leadership shifts, policy direction becomes unclear right when inflation is still sticky. Historically, transitions or uncertainty around the Fed have led to volatility spikes and equity drawdowns. If markets lose confidence in rate control, multiples compress fast. 2. Tech is still historically overvalued (and fragile) SPY is trading around ~20.8x forward earnings well above long-term averages during uncertain macro periods. At the same time, return on equity is sitting near ~20% vs historical ~14.5%, signaling peak profitability conditions that are unlikely to sustain. 3. Rate cuts delayed → liquidity stays tight Inflation is re-accelerating (~3.3% recently), largely driven by energy and geopolitical factors. This forces the Fed to keep rates higher for longer—crushing the “rate cut rally” narrative. Markets priced in easing… but reality is tightening. When liquidity doesn’t come, assets reprice lower. 4. US–Iran war → oil spike → inflation shock Oil markets are now in a war-risk regime, with supply disruptions and rising costs hitting global economies. Energy prices are already forcing companies to downgrade outlooks and cut capacity. This creates a toxic loop: Higher oil → higher inflation → no rate cuts → lower valuations. That’s how crashes start. 5. Buffett sitting on massive cash = warning signal When the greatest investor alive refuses to deploy capital, you should pay attention. At peak cycles, Buffett historically builds cash not because he’s bearish short-term, but because valuations don’t justify risk. Combine that with: Rising layoffs Slowing hiring AI displacing entry-level jobs …and you get early-stage demand destruction forming beneath the surface. Even economists are warning unemployment could rise meaningfully as growth slows. I think the sell off is triggered middly of May closer to May 15, 2026 for FOMC.

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aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1@GnothiSeAuton·
@martypartymusic Biggest vulnerabilities in the thesis: 1. over-reliance on near-term legislative and liquidity catalysts that are already showing delays and friction, and 2. under-estimating how slowly institutional behavior actually changes even when the buyer base evolves.
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MartyParty
MartyParty@martypartymusic·
Bitcoin has only had 2 years of institutional buyers making the floor - anyone saying: - sell in may and go away - 4 year cycle - it did something in the past Is an idiot. They will hurt you. We following US liquidity which is about to go bananas. 🍌 Yes, there are heaps of leveraged longs below but Binance no longer has the firepower to hunt them. They lose equity and are already 400k $BTC behind Coinbase. The market is changing and Clarity will pass. This means: Types of Institutions Likely to Buy or Increase Bitcoin Exposure on Clarity Act 1. Traditional Banks and Custodians (e.g., BNY Mellon, State Street, JPMorgan, community banks/credit unions) • Can offer custody, trading, and related services more freely. • Some are already exploring or piloting; clarity removes hesitation. Banks may also integrate Bitcoin into treasury management or client offerings. 2. Asset Managers and Investment Firms (e.g., BlackRock, Fidelity, Morgan Stanley) • Already active via Bitcoin ETFs (which have seen massive inflows). The Act strengthens the foundation for broader spot holdings, tokenized products, and portfolio integration. • Easier modeling of risks and compliance. 3. Pension Funds and Retirement Plans (public and private, including 401(k)s) • Public pensions in several states have begun limited exposure; federal clarity (plus related DOL/EO developments) reduces fiduciary liability concerns for “alternative assets.” • Sovereign wealth funds and large endowments are often cited as waiting for this exact regulatory green light. 4. Insurance Companies • Can allocate reserves or general accounts to Bitcoin/ETFs with clearer accounting and risk-based capital treatment under the new framework. 5. Hedge Funds, Family Offices, and Private Equity/Venture Firms • Already significant players; the Act enables more seamless integration into funds-of-funds, prime brokerage, and structured products. 6. Corporate Treasuries (public companies) • Firms like MicroStrategy pioneered this; clarity makes it a more standard treasury strategy for diversification and inflation/hedging. Did I get your attention?
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Peter Girnus 🦅
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz·
I am the personal financial advisor to the 47th President of the United States. I have made him $4.05 billion in one term. Let me say that again. Four point zero five. Billion. One term. The presidency of the United States, upon proper management, outperforms every asset class in recorded financial history, including venture capital, petroleum futures, and the sovereign wealth fund in Abu Dhabi that manages $1.7 trillion and employs nine hundred analysts. I benchmarked it. We beat them with a staff of four and a leather binder. I keep a binder in the residence. I call it The Number. The Number was $3.4 billion in August. The Number is $4.05 billion now. The Number has never gone down. I update it every Friday at 6 AM, before the briefing, like a surgeon checking vitals on a patient who can only get healthier. The cover is leather. The tabs are color-coded by sector: Crypto, Finance, Hospitality, Media, Other. "Other" includes a Boeing 747-8 valued at $400 million, gifted to him by the Emir of Qatar while he was sitting President. There is no asset class for that. I invented one. I call it EAGLE-7. Crypto is seventy-five percent of the portfolio. $3.02 billion. I want you to sit with that figure. Three billion from digital tokens and stablecoins. From a man who in 2021 called Bitcoin "a scam against the dollar." His words. The flagship holding is Trump Media's bitcoin stockpile. He holds 42% of the company. The company sold shares to institutional investors. Used their capital to purchase bitcoin. His personal stake from that maneuver alone: $1.15 billion. He drafts national cryptocurrency regulation from the Resolute Desk. Signs executive orders on digital asset policy. Handpicks the SEC chair who will enforce them. His bitcoin goes up when he does these things. The investors' stock goes down. That's a conflict of interest. I'm kidding. I've never used those words in that order. That's the investment thesis. Then there is Alt5 Sigma. I need you to understand Alt5 Sigma. Alt5 Sigma was previously known as Appliance Recycling Centers of America. Founded in 1991. In Minnesota. It recycled dishwashers. Then it became a biotech. Then a digital payments company. Then Zach Witkoff, son of the President's special envoy, became chairman, and it became the primary vehicle for purchasing World Liberty Financial tokens. In 1991 it recycled dishwashers in Minnesota. In 2025 it funneled $562 million to the President's family through a Rwandan subsidiary convicted of money laundering. The CEO was removed. The CFO was fired. The auditor was replaced. Twice. The stock went from $8 to $2. We received $562 million from it. I put it in the binder. I logged it in the binder on a Thursday. I used Garamond. It felt appropriate for a company whose journey from kitchen appliances to international money laundering spanned exactly thirty-four years. The stablecoin is where the architecture gets beautiful. USD1. $136 million in projected interest over the remaining term. I will show you the math because the math is the point. $3 billion in circulation. Times 4% annual return. Times three years remaining in office. Times the family's 38% share. The UAE purchased $2 billion of USD1. Then Binance promoted it. Pumped circulation from $2 billion to $5 billion. Binance's founder had pleaded guilty to money laundering violations. He received a presidential pardon in October. I pardon you. You promote my stablecoin. My stablecoin generates $136 million. The pardon cost nothing. The coin cost nothing. The oath of office cost nothing. The entire apparatus of federal clemency was converted into a revenue instrument and nobody filed a complaint. That's yield. TRUMPcoin. $385 million. A memecoin with the President's face on it, launched days before inauguration. Every person who bought TRUMPcoin at launch and held it has lost 90 cents of every dollar. Every person who bought it made the President $385 million richer on the way in. That's the product. The product is not a coin. The product is belief. We are very long belief. His sons received a 13% equity stake in American Bitcoin. A New Yorker investigation determined they contributed, and I quote, "nothing else of obvious value." I would characterize their contribution differently. They contributed the single most valuable commodity in American commerce, worth more per ounce than lithium, more per gram than fentanyl, more per syllable than any word in the English language. Proximity to the man who pardons people. That's due diligence. Hospitality. $271 million. Mar-a-Lago now generates $50 million a year. It generated $10 million when he took office. Initiation fee: $1 million. You are paying $1 million to eat dinner in the same room as the man who controls the Department of Justice. I set that price. It is undervalued. Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince visited the White House. Then Dar Al Arkan signed licensing deals estimated at $10 billion. Hotels in the Maldives. Golf clubs in Riyadh. A tower in Jeddah. He sat next to the man who ordered a journalist dismembered and said, quote, "He knew nothing about it." Then he signed the hotel deal. I have the term sheet. Our fee is 2-10% of revenue. We do not ask what happened to the journalist. That is not in our mandate. $106 million is in our mandate. That's client retention. Finance: $340 million, predominantly Persian Gulf sovereign wealth fund arrangements structured through intermediaries whose names I am not going to say in this format. Media: $116 million. Legal fee fundraising and branded merchandise: $128 million. The Qatari jet: $150 million. I have already mentioned the jet. I mention it again because a sitting foreign head of state gifted the sitting American President a $400 million flying palace with gold-plated fixtures and a master suite, and not a single member of Congress has asked a follow-up question. Not one. Not in committee. Not in writing. Not on camera. Five hundred and thirty-five legislators. Zero questions. Now. I am required by my own conscience, which is vestigial at this point, to disclose downstream performance. Every public-facing investment vehicle associated with this portfolio has collapsed for outside investors. I will read them. TRUMPcoin. Down 90%. American Bitcoin. Down 80%. Trump NFTs. Down 80%. Trump Media stock. Down 60% since inauguration. Alt5 Sigma. Down 75%. The family's positions were structured to extract value before these declines materialized. The retail investors' positions were structured to supply the value being extracted. There were approximately 600,000 retail wallets holding TRUMPcoin at peak. Retirees. Day traders. People who believed the branding. Their aggregate losses capitalized the portfolio. Their savings became his tab in the binder. That's liquidity. I want to address the competitive landscape. I am a financial professional. I benchmark everything. In 2016, the President stood at a podium and called Hillary Clinton "the most corrupt enterprise in political history." He said she "turned the State Department into her personal hedge fund." The accusation that ended her career was $153 million in speaking fees. Combined. With her husband. Over fifteen years. Goldman Sachs paid her $225,000 per speech. He said the word "crooked" so many times it became her legal name. $153 million. Fifteen years. Two people. I made him $4.05 billion. In one term. By himself. A 26-to-1 ratio. I wrote it on the whiteboard in the residence. Then there was the Biden family. "The Biden Crime Family," he called them. He held rallies about it. He got impeached over investigating it. The Republican House spent two years and $3.5 million in taxpayer funds to uncover, per their own final report, approximately $24 million in Biden family income over five years. Hunter Biden's Burisma salary was $1 million a year, later reduced to $500,000. The Chinese payments were $664,000. The House Oversight Committee called it "influence peddling at the highest level." $24 million. Five years. Ten family members. My client made that in two days. I have the math. $4.05 billion divided by 365 days is $11.1 million per day. The entire Biden investigation, the impeachment, the hearings, the Fox News segments, the "CRIME FAMILY" hats, all of it, for an amount my client earns before his Wednesday morning briefing. The ratio is 168 to 1. I put it on the whiteboard next to the Clinton number. The President saw it. He laughed. He did not ask me to take it down. "Drain the swamp," he said in 2016. I drained it. Into the binder. The swamp is now a portfolio. It is the highest-performing portfolio in the history of public office, and the man who built it ran for President on the promise that he would stop people from doing exactly what I help him do every single day. That's positioning. When the New Yorker published the full accounting, $4.05 billion across five sectors, and asked the President whether he saw a conflict of interest between the office and the fortune, between the pardons and the profits, between setting crypto policy and holding $3 billion in crypto, he told the New York Times six words. "I found out that nobody cared." He was right. He has been right about that singular fact since the beginning. Nobody cared when he launched the coin. Nobody cared when he pardoned the convicted money launderer who pumped his stablecoin. Nobody cared when a dishwasher recycling outfit in Minnesota became a $562 million pipeline to his family through a subsidiary that had been convicted on three continents. Nobody cared when 600,000 wallets evaporated so the leather binder in the residence could gain another tab. He found out nobody cared. Then he monetized the finding at a rate of $11.1 million per day, every day he has held office, including Sundays, including holidays, including the morning he sat next to the Crown Prince and said the murdered journalist had it coming. $4.05 billion. One presidential term. Zero indictments. Zero congressional hearings. Zero audits. Zero consequences of any kind for any person at any level of the operation. The chart goes up. It only counts his money. There is another chart. It has 600,000 wallets on it. Retirement accounts. People who believed a dishwasher recycling company in Minnesota was a sound vehicle for their savings. We do not publish that one. I filed it under EAGLE-7.
Peter Girnus 🦅 tweet mediaPeter Girnus 🦅 tweet media
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signüll
signüll@signulll·
one of the most refreshing things on the planet is talking to someone who just *gets it*. like you don’t need a preamble, & you don’t need to articulate the shape of the thought before you can share it cuz they just meet you where you already are. as if they skimmed your mind & married to the culture before you say a single word. these people are rare, & conversations with them are incredible because you skip the surface layer entirely & land in the depth almost immediately. they’re the best ppl to riff with, ideate with, & think forward with.. the bandwidth is wide & already open. this is true for any type of relationship.
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Sizhe思哲
Sizhe思哲@Sizhe_bitcat·
这要5年前很难想象,这得需要多大的工程量,才能烧出来这个场景 Ai生成的场景,震撼程度远远超过了人类的想象 我都不敢想象这如果是一个真龙,我估计直接就吓尿了 太踏马震撼了
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Peter Grandich
Peter Grandich@PeterGrandich·
We are now in the parabolic, melt-up phase. Where and when it peaks is anyone's guess. It's also the exit phase, not enter. Just remember, it's better to be a year too early, than a day too late.
Peter Grandich tweet media
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aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1@GnothiSeAuton·
@jmo22966085 Seriously. WTF is up with the jackass-in-chief? "Dumbo" seems so obvious. So is the jackass losing his mind? Missed opportunity? Surely he wasn't being considerate...
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Big Digital Energy (NASDAQ: BGDE)
Mawson Infrastructure Group Inc. Becomes Big Digital Energy, Inc.; Receives Nasdaq Listing Determination; Already in Compliance, To Request Hearing Company Expects to Begin Trading on Nasdaq Under the New Ticker “BGDE” on April 30, 2026 Full release: globenewswire.com/news-release/2…
Big Digital Energy (NASDAQ: BGDE) tweet media
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aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1@GnothiSeAuton·
@scottmelker Solid insight. Thanks. I never got around to getting one. You're post put it to rest for me and saved me the $ and potential emotional turmoil. +1
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The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets@scottmelker·
Wore an Oura ring for months. It gave me great insight into my sleep, recovery, and activity. Genuinely useful. But I stopped. At some point, I realized I didn’t need more data — I needed to trust how I actually feel. My “readiness score” would tell me to rest… on days I felt amazing. Or warn me I slept poorly… before I even got out of bed. And here’s the problem: Those scores start to shape your mood. You wake up feeling good, check your app, see a low score — and suddenly you don’t feel so good anymore. We’ve outsourced intuition to algorithms. Data is powerful. But if you’re not careful, it doesn’t just measure your day. It decides it.
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Benjamin Cowen
Benjamin Cowen@benjamincowen·
When Gensler left the SEC in January 2025, Bitcoin was at 109k. Today Bitcoin is at 75k. One major reason the crypto markets have suffered is because market participants started to lose faith in the industry itself. After Gensler left, it essentially just opened the floodgates to the grifting age of crypto, where influencers and politicians were launching memecoins and rug-pulling their followers each and every day, without fear of any repercussions. This led to a massive misallocation of capital into useless assets that drained liquidity from the industry. While people celebrated Gensler leaving, it actually marked a turning point in the industry, with Bitcoin only marginally going higher before entering a bear market. Now that people celebrate Powell's removal as chair of the Federal Reserve, it makes me think history will repeat itself once again. People celebrate it in the short-term, but as we look back on this era in a few years, I imagine it will mark a major turning point in credibility at the Fed. If the Fed just becomes another cabinet of the executive branch, it may lead to a lack of trust in the institution itself. Perhaps many will look back in a few years and realize that markets were better off with Powell than without him.
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juggernaut
juggernaut@0xthemistocles·
Last September, I traced the wallets connected to the $BANANA Gun Deployer & the questionable behavior implying that an infamous ETH sniper group benefited from the Banana team’s access to its users' Order Flow to frontrun them on hyped launches (1/7)
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Sarah Drasner
Sarah Drasner@sarah_edo·
SF Native here- the whole post is about SF tech. Go to the redwoods. Go to Santa Cruz. Make friends with dog walkers, doctors, bartenders. Get involved in the food culture (and the after parties). Go see some live music. Stare out at the bay while eating seafood in mission bay. Have a picnic with friends in Golden Gate Park. Ride a boat in stow lake. There’s so much more to the city than the tech climb and grind. You can be in tech without having it swallow you whole.
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CALL TO ACTIVISM
CALL TO ACTIVISM@CalltoActivism·
🚨HOLY SHIT: Trump just cut right in front of Queen Camilla and King Charles to shake the hands of his own cabinet. Trump is the most embarrassing president in U.S. history. x.com/MeidasTouch/st…
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