Aric Goodman

I actually think the whole "permanent underclass" narrative is wrong. I think we're about to see the largest EXPLOSION of entrepreneurship in human history. I get why the fear exists. Jobs are getting cut. AI researchers are privately saying most people are screwed. The models are getting ridiculously better and faster than anyone expected. Project that forward linearly and yeah, it looks BLEAK. But linear projections are usually wrong during platform shifts. Nobody projected that the internet would create 50 million small businesses. They projected Walmart would eat everything. Nobody projected that mobile would create a million app developers. They projected phones were just phones. What actually happens is intelligence gets cheap and a flood of new builders enter the market with domain knowledge the incumbents never had. Millions will get laid off or just never hired over the next 24-36 months. Those jobs are not coming back. So they become entrepreneurs. Out of necessity at first. Then out of opportunity. The underclass idea is VIRAL because it confirms something people have been feeling for a decade. That the ground is shifting and nobody at the top is reaching down. And they're right. But the interesting thing about this particular technology is that it doesn't check your resume or your zip code. The same tool that eliminates your position hands you the ability to build the thing that replaces it. The weapon and the escape hatch are the same object. We're about to see more new companies started in the next 5 years than in the previous 50. And I think we're going to look back at this moment the way we look back at 1995. Everyone was scared. Everyone was right to be. And the people who built anyway became the next generation of owners. I know you might be reading about the permanent underclass and it's scary. Who wants to "get stuck in the permanent underclass no one. My POV is the permanent underclass isn't a foregone conclusion. I know some people are genuinely struggling right now and "just go build" sounds tone deaf when you're worried about rent. I get that. But the reason I'm optimistic is that the cost to start something just dropped to nearly zero, intelligence on tap, and eveyr category/industry you can think of is getting reshuffled. The explosion of entrepreneurship is just beginning.

no one's work was stolen - you might do some actual research into how AIs learn and train, cause they do so in the exact same way you do so if it is stealing for an AI to learn and train in the same way you do, then it is stealing for YOU to learn and train that way, too

The Bible is the only foundation for morality.

Conservatives are generally happier than liberals. Why? Because we actually have foundation and family values.

THIS GUY ACCIDENTALLY BURNED $6,000 IN CLAUDE USAGE OVERNIGHT WITH ONE COMMAND he set a /loop command to check his open PRs every 30 minutes the night before and forgot about it it ran 46 times over 26 hours on opus 4.7. completely unattended here's how claude billing ACTUALLY works: every API call sends your ENTIRE conversation history (not just the latest message). turn 1 sends a few hundred tokens. turn 46 sends 800,000 tokens anthropic uses prompt caching to make this cheaper. if your conversation was sent recently it serves from cache at a 12.5x discount but...cache expires after 5 minutes of inactivity his /loop was set to 30 minutes. so every single iteration: > loop fires, history gets cached > 30 minutes pass, cache expires > loop fires again, cache is gone > has to re-cache the entire conversation from scratch at full price > each iteration also adds its own output so the next re-cache is even bigger by hour 20 the conversation had grown to 800k tokens. every iteration was paying to re-cache 800k tokens at the expensive write rate. the actual PR check responses were nothing compared to the caching cost (obviously) anthropic's dashboard has a multi-day reporting lag. he had no idea anything was wrong until the limit email hit he woke up to a $6,000 bill for a command that was supposed to be a simple PR checker if you use /loop in claude code, keep the interval under 5 minutes so the cache stays warm. or start a fresh session for each loop

By welcoming this technology you welcome AI stealing from millions of artists, you welcome AI data centers polluting communities, you welcome people’s electricity bills being higher because of AI data centers and you welcome wasting millions of gallons of fresh water

I think part of this is because Opus 4.7 feels like a brilliant but overexcitable scatterbrained teenager, whereas 4.6 feels like a world-weary 4th year PhD student.

Code is not cheap now and it may actually be more expensive than it ever has been

Universal Basic Compute gives people fuel for agency rather than sedation through UBI. I'd rather live in a neuro-capitalist future where people do awesome things than some sort of communist dystopia of government handouts. side note: Sama must be reading my tweets 😆