GraInformant

🚨GraInformant Update🚨 The website is now live The GraInformant site allows you to check Soybean/Corn processor basis levels quickly and for free You can access the site by just looking up grainformant, and if our X profile shows up first just include a .com at the end - the link also is in our profile It has not yet been optimized for mobile viewing so I would suggest checking on a computer when you get a chance. There is still much to be added, this is a large work in progress, but I wanted to get this functionality out to the public in the effort to save some time for those who check these levels daily. Please reach out with any comments or ideas you would like to see implemented. I am very excited to get this out to everyone and hope you all enjoy it. If it useful for you, please consider sharing the site to others in the industry! Thank you everyone! #basis #ag #grain

Yeah, we’ve had a record breaking corn export program and IL prod was record but only marginally and isn’t enough to handle the export increase. ECB basis is really strong right now bc the increased prod/yield wasn’t in these areas, it was in the west. If you look at basis in states like ND, MN, SD, their basis is terrible because that’s where all those additional bushels are

@GraInformant Southern Illinois

I think 186.5 was too high, but i can’t believe it was too far off. This U/Z is ugly and continues to weaken on green days

Fat finger in July SRW?

@Matthew1530896 Gotcha, where at?

@GraInformant Delivery months at the elevator. They are posting a plus basis from now through March. Fall harvest months are usually never a positive basis

@Matthew1530896 Every month of what has a plus basis? And where?

@GraInformant Every month has a plus basis. Meaning the bushels are needed which implies that massive crop last didn’t exist

@Matthew1530896 Truly curious as to what you were saying

@GraInformant Positive cash into March basis tells we didn’t grow anywhere’s near a 187 crop

@Matthew1530896 Not completely following you, positive cash where?

@GreggMuehler Apologies, hoping it gets sorted out

@GraInformant Yeah I’m living it

ND and MN showing a July basis for Corn worse than their harvest basis

@planebucki Id like to see an adjustment but I am not convinced they show an actual change to yield. It’s possible they just increase exports even more or something else to lower that carryout rather than changing the actual number.

@GraInformant I won’t disagree with that. I have been saying residual has been too high and has to come down, but they keep increasing it. To me that means an overestimate of yield. Maybe we see an adjustment in September?

@planebucki I don’t think 186.5 is correct, but I don’t think it was as low as ppl are saying

@GraInformant Why is residual so high and increased in the last report if 186.5 is correct?

VAMMMMOOOOO

Vammmmoooooo

We’re here

Corn feed and resid up 150 Carry out 2.02 About in line with personal expectation NC carryout lower at 1.790, positive to see as well, not sure how much it’ll do to the Z/H though, but a bit more positive

Could see a bump today in Z/H though, I’m expecting an increase in exports and feed/residual, but not sure how large. Guessing carryout stays above 2, but smaller

Not hearing anything abt China buying wheat in regards to the rally

Last few days I’ve been pretty interested in this CZ/H spread, had been feeling it’s too wide. This thought was largely driven by these factors - seasonally strong NC sales on the book already - current px is pretty weak on a seasonal basis - OC demand is still strong and possible to see USDA bump up exports - assumption that production isn’t as large as USDA has been stating After taking a deeper look into some data, I gotta say CZ/H seems to be fairly priced, and the main reason I’ve flipped is that last assumption; which I think is false. Major signal for me has been the U/Z price behavior last few days, especially when we were rallying. There is tons of corn still out there, we’re moving closer and closer to NC and the farmer is gonna have to start moving those bushels. There’s been lots of farmer selling on OC corn in IL on these rallies, when prices are up they are gonna take whatever price they can get. Additionally, country corn basis levels for states that had exceptional corn production - MN, NE, ND, KS, those western states, is significantly lower than levels seen in previous years at this time of year. To finish, our corn stocks will likely look similar to levels we saw in pre 2020. 2018 Sep 1 stocks were 2.14B, USDA had corn prod at 14.6 B in Nov and the Z/H spread on FND was -13, compare that to now with a prod number close to 16B and -15 makes sense #corn #futures