Gregory Daco

As the expiration deadline on Donald Trump's temporary tariffs approaches, his administration has indicated that it plans to replace them with more durable and roughly equivalent ones based on accusations concerning forced labor. Here's what to know bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Why I think the Federal Reserve won't move on interests rates for the rest of this year... I know I've said this before, but the @BloombergTV Surveillance team really is an exceptional group -- smart, thoughtful, and genuinely kind. bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

🇧🇪 Congrats to Belgium for being the second best team in this @FIFAWorldCup 😂

🇪🇸 Viva España! A great @FIFAWorldCup by a complete team! Wonderful control of the pitch by every player. The midfield management was incredible. The Argentinians had a great run but played anti-football today and it weighed on them 🇦🇷

📈Consumer sentiment rebounds in early July, but still generally depressed & optimism could fade w/ rebounding gas prices ⚠️Inflation expectations eased, but reflect lower gas prices -- which have rebounded over past week ⬇️1-yr ahead 4.2% (-0.4pt) ↔️5-yr ahead 3.3% (flat)

In a Linkedin post on Friday, Beth Hammack of @ClevelandFed says she is hearing from her business contacts in the region that inflation "isn’t coming from only one source—it’s broad based." "For the first time in my tenure, I’m hearing from businesses who say they think we need to take action to curb inflation, and from consumers who can’t make ends meet about a growing sense of despair."

🏭US Industrial #production ✅+0.1% m/m in June ✅+1.1% y/y 🟠#Manufacturing +0% m/m 🔻Durables -0.1%: despite growth in computers/electronics ✅Nondurables +0.2%: led by petroleum products ✅Mining 0.4% (oil& gas) ✅Utilities 0.4%

⚠️Import prices +0.3% m/m in June, despite -0.4% fuel import prices 👀Monitor closely as nonfuel import price inflation has risen to 4.2% y/y: highest since Jun 22 📈Capital gds prices +5.7% y/y (all-time high): AI-led investment pull 📈Consumer prices: exporters recoup tariffs

🏘️US housing permits point to lingering softness, down 2.3% y/y 🏠Single-family starts remain depressed 🔻-2.4% m/m 🔻-0.2% y/y 🌆Multi-fam steady at 2019 levels 🔻-4.3% m/m 🔻 -5.7% y/

🏘️US housing starts surge 19% m/m in June, after 15.2% plunge in May. Volatility from multi-family segment. 🏠Single-family starts remain depressed 🔻-0.2% m/m 🔻-3.2% y/y 🌆Multi-fam to highest level since 2023 ✅+76% m/m ✅ +17% y/y

#Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: "Policy stance should continue... allowing inflation to resume its decline toward our 2% target. That said, in a scenario where actual inflation does not start to cool down **soon**, it could be appropriate to reconsider" federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…

The Treasury Department’s top tax policy official was forced out of his job after he warned that the White House was at risk of violating a federal law prohibiting senior officials’ involvement in IRS audits on.wsj.com/4waMY5R

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan sounds like someone who is prepared to vote for a rate increase: “I currently believe modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks for the FOMC’s dual mandate goals.” Despite the favorable June CPI, “one month of relief is not enough. It is time to finish the job of restoring price stability.” “My best judgment is that inflation appears to be heading toward the mid 2’s—not all the way back to 2%.”

⚽️From my "Déjà vu! A Chief Economist's World Cup Forecast" 🤖Model-based approach predicted 5/8 quarter-finalists, 3/4 semi-finalists & 1/2 finalists. ⚖️Personal take had 6/8 quarter-finalists, 4/4 semi-finalists and 2/2 finalists. linkedin.com/pulse/d%C3%A9j…

🎙️ The latest episode of The Inflation Brief #podcast just dropped via @nabe_econ ! 💡 Laura Rosner-Warburton & I discuss the surprisingly weak June #CPI and PPI data, lower core #inflation, the inflation outlook & #Fed policy under Chair #Warsh linktr.ee/nabe_econ

The #retail picture continue to look solid in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms even if we're seeing evidence of more price sensitivity & more frugal spend by lower income households on essentials -- both reflective of the income squeeze

Adjusted for inflation, #retail sales show resilience & price sensitivity (⚠️essentials) ✅Total 0.6% ✅Core 0.6% ⛽️Gas 4.4% 🚗Auto 4.4% 🏬Merch 3.5% 🎮Elec 2.3% 💻Online 2.0% ⚽️Sports 0.8% 🏠Build mat 0.7% 👗Cloth 0.2% 👩‍🍳Rest/bar 0.2% 🛋️Furn -0.3% 🛒Groc -0.4% ⚕️Health -1%

🇺🇸 #Retail sales: Solid, but not for all ✅Sales +0.2% ✅Inflation-adj +0.6% ✅Core sales +0.5% ✅Volumes +0.6% 💻Online 1.9% 🚗Auto 1.9% ⚽️Sports 1.3% 🎮Elec 0.8% 🏠Build mat 0.1% 👩‍🍳Rest/bar 0.1% 🏬Merch 0.1% 🛋️Furn 0% 🛒Groc -0.2% 👗Cloth -0.3% ⚕️Health -0.8% ⛽️Gas -5.3%

@sulaimanslalani We don't get volume data, but I do an approximation using CPI

@GregDaco Do we get volume data? That's more important especially in inflation-infested era.