Greg

Canada the Prozac nation... Big reason why Alberta is leaving!

@DamianPMason 100% and now Its even worse than the old school model. I haven't figured out how to prove it but I believe these modern markets move one standard deviation too high or too low. That means farmers have the opportunity to loose or gain huge. More than ever.

If farmers out perform, they might "possibly break even?" It's time to admit, Agriculture isn't in a cyclical downturn, it's a structural reality. I hear Ag types referencing "this cycle" -- and I totally get it, Ag is a cyclical business. Or, it has been a cyclical business. Moving forward, I see it being more about structural vs. cyclical. What "structural issues" am I referring to? a. Global surplus and capacity - it's so much greater than it's ever been. b. Economic cooling off. There won't be another China story and the current China story isn't getting better for increased consumption or trade. c. Protectionism and trade restrictions will continue to increase. The old days of making stuff then sticking it on a boat aren't going away but decreasing drastically. #business #agriculture #speaker

@shanaka86 Outside of Ag nerds most people have zero clue how vulnerable the global petrol base agricultural complex is. I would argue the removal of petroleum based (fert& chem) agriculture would destroy civilization and the global pop. would drop to sub 1 billion.

BREAKING: While the world debates oil prices and war strategy, the actual crisis is unfolding in silence. The molecules that produce half the planet’s food are physically trapped behind a war zone. And the biological window to apply them closes in weeks. Not months. Weeks. This is not a drill. Roughly one-third of all seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz according to UNCTAD. Nearly 49% of globally traded urea is tied to conflict-exposed exporters. Nearly half of global sulfur trade, the chemical without which phosphate fertilizer cannot be processed anywhere on Earth, is Gulf-dependent. Transit has collapsed 97%. There is no alternative route. There is no strategic fertilizer reserve anywhere on Earth. There is no Plan B. Right now, as you read this: Bangladesh has shut five of six urea factories. Boro rice season, which produces over half the country’s grain, is underway with no domestic nitrogen supply. India is operating fertilizer plants at 60% capacity and has formally asked China for emergency urea. China said nothing and banned its own phosphate exports through August. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, faces $28 billion in debt repayments while the bread subsidy feeding 69 million people hemorrhages money at prices it never budgeted for. Sudan, already in confirmed famine, sources 54% of its fertilizer from the Gulf. WFP shipping now takes 25 extra days rerouting around the war zone. Australia imports virtually all its urea, two-thirds from the Gulf, and its entire heavy trucking fleet runs on AdBlue made from the same urea that is not arriving. No urea, no AdBlue, no freight, no groceries on shelves in Sydney. 318 million people were at crisis-level hunger BEFORE February 28. The number that should haunt every policymaker on Earth: the yield response to nitrogen is not linear. It is quadratic. In wealthy countries that over-apply fertilizer, a 15% reduction costs maybe 3% of yield. In the Global South where farmers already apply one-seventh the global average, the same reduction pushes crops off a biophysical cliff where production does not decline. It collapses. Sri Lanka proved this in 2021. One season without synthetic fertilizer. Rice output collapsed 40%. Government fell. Now multiply Sri Lanka across thirty countries simultaneously. During a potential El Nino that Skymet says carries a 60% chance of below-normal Indian monsoon. While 51% of US corn-growing areas are already in drought. While Australia’s root-zone soil moisture sits in the lowest 10% since 1911. While corn farmers are abandoning nitrogen-intensive planting because they cannot afford $900-per-ton ammonia against $4.50 corn. While the Fed is trapped at 3% core PCE with no room to cut and food inflation about to surge through every grocery aisle in America six months from now. Nobody is talking about this. CNBC leads with oil. Bloomberg leads with equities. The Pentagon leads with strike counts. But the actual weapon of mass destruction in this conflict is not a missile. It is a calendar. The Corn Belt needs nitrogen by mid-April. India needs to prep Kharif by May. Australia needs urea by June. Miss those windows and no subsequent intervention reverses the yield loss. The food is not decided by diplomats in six months. It is decided by soil chemistry in the next six weeks. The prices hit your table by Christmas. Both sides rejected ceasefire talks this week. The world spent fifty years preparing for an oil shock. It spent zero years preparing for a fertilizer shock. Half of humanity eats because of a single industrial process that runs on natural gas from the Persian Gulf, exits through 21 miles of water that are currently mined, uninsured, and unescorted. The planting window does not care about your geopolitics. It is closing. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@sizov_andre We are entering the hopeium phase of the market. When famers promise themselves that they will sell as soon as it goes back up. 🤣

Everyone: the ag rally is coming! Market: #soybeans limit down. Welcome to the wonderful world of agriculture! #oatt

The Boogie Blaster 3000

WWIII has been cancelled until further notice! Yes really, it's time to put your 'end of the world' decorations away and save them for another day.

@farmersgrowit @sizov_andre Maybe we see farmers use the lower end of their fertilizer recs this year. Nothing major, but enough to slightly change the balance sheet? $5 dec corn?

@sizov_andre @Greg_Insightag Good question. I think supply should be ok; delayed potentially and pricey but really have no idea given the poor communication by the cos. Ships are getting through the strait and production is ok so should be no reason to see fert pricing much different than normal.

Good news: no need to waste your time on those fertilizer flow charts by region. Bad news: nitrogen fertilizers are still about +30% - and not going down. I’ve been watching the many charts and takes about who will be hit the hardest. Some say: “We’re fine — we don’t buy from the Middle East.” Others: “We’re in big trouble — we rely on the Middle East and we’re DOOMED” That’s not really how commodity markets work. Nitrogen fertilizers are largely interchangeable. It doesn’t matter that much whether a country usually buys from the Middle East or from Russia. Trade flows will adjust - some countries will suffer a bit more, others a bit less. But if the market tightens, prices rise for everyone. Unlike oil, fertilizer markets have barely reacted to Trump’s promises to quickly end the war. Urea prices remain roughly +30% compared with the start of the war. #iran #oott #oatt #sizovreport

@sizov_andre @farmersgrowit I would agree that its going to be single % Maybe 160 -320 (1 or 2 quarters) acres of a 3000 acre farm. The biggest surprise is right now how few farmers are locking in New Crop canola at this level. $720 Jan 2027 is a gift.

@farmersgrowit @Greg_Insightag How much in %?

Almost half of the world's food supply relies on synthetic fertilizer. That fertilizer is made using the Haber–Bosch process, which requires vast amounts of natural gas to create ammonia. Without it, global food production would collapse. Of today's 8 billion people, over 4 billion are fed directly by synthetic fertilizer. Without it, the sustainable population would fall to about 3.5 billion. Natural gas isn't just a fuel, it's food. Eliminating it in the name of Net Zero isn't 'climate policy', it's population control.

Under the hoe

This is the Fraser Institute President Niels Veldhuis on BC's property crisis. He’s exactly right. Who will want to ever invest in a Country where at any moment could have their private property taken away from them.

Canada’s ports are a ticking time bomb says Scott McGregor. The intelligence analyst explains the port of Prince Rupert, closest to China and controlled by Dubai World, hasn't had federal enforcement in a decade. Scott says this should worry every Canadian. Check out this episode on YouTube. youtu.be/teeXG5BiYpM @5eyesScott @FrontierCentre @Merittvcanada

Oil up, Markets down, the chaos has officially arrived. Stop watching the red candles and start watching the legends. WATCH & SAVE the only strategy that survives a crash.

Money is pouring into ag commodities. Corn for example, the biggest week of large spec corn buying since November... And this does not include the 40¢ rally from Wednesday's low to Friday's close.

Mexico has announced its already engaged in USMCA negotiations with America...without Canada. Yes, you read that right. We're out. The biggest mistake since electing Trudeau was doing it again with Carney. No one takes Canada seriously anymore. No one. But...ELBOWS UP!

@buperac Lets stir the pot and assume @GrainShark is correct and canola goes to $24/bu and fertilizer costs push the Cost per acre to $710/ac. One would have to assume the geopolitical tensions have moved profits up to $490/acre or wild 69% ROI.

Canada can supply itself with enough fertilizer for the season, it had the highest level of fertilizer supply in 5 years. But industry will punish farmers every chance they get. The only people that aren’t allowed to make money in geopolitical uncertainty is farmers.

@GrainShark Beside a War premium what would push canola up that high? I know 1200 is the high on july 2022. In my opinion i don't think the S&D is tight enough to warrant a rally of that size. Maybe 845 (19/bu) at most.

Canola is going to $24/bu.

Canada approached Mexico last year about cutting the USA out of USMCA ....and Mexico said no! Now, Mexico is CUTTING Canada out of USMCA!!!