Gridiron Insights

Bets I'm rolling with today: CLE +2.5 2u LV +2.5 1.5u NYJ +13 1.5u SEA +4 2u DAL -8 1u

Spreadsheet is live for week 10... So far I have bets on NYJ +13.5, SEA +4.5, LV +2.5 and CLE +2.5. Really like ARI - 10 if you're confident Kyler will play. Philly line looks intriguing as well

Updated through week 9 SNF

Just ran model for week 10, seeing lots of value on these bets. Also really like ARZ - 10 if you're confident Kyler will play

Good luck all 🤞

On two bets today: MIN +6 LV - 3 there's a few more I was on the fence about (Jax +14.5, DAL - 10) but #QualityOverQuantity not super confident in those so I'll pass

Week 7 spread picks breakdown is live. Our model is seeing great value on four teams this Sunday. Quick breakdown of each game here: gridironinsights.com/nfl-week-7-mod…

@adamlevitan They're trending up too

Bengals are 27th in pass rate over expectation overall. But they're 2nd when in the red zone.

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Updated pass rate and pace through week 6. Adjusted for relevant context with recent games weighted slightly higher

As always, you can see bets I've already taken at the above link. Took ARI earlier in the week before the COVID news, but I'm not deleting any picks from the log for transparency purposes.

Model is also seeing some value on ARI and SEA, but I'm not personally taking those bets (even after accounting for each situation) due to the uncertainty surrounding the Cards without multiple coaches (including their HC) and the Seahawks with Geno at QB.

Final update for week 6 model is live (incorporates final injury reports and ARI CVOID debacle). Our machine learning model is seeing value on HOU, KC, CAR, JAX, DAL and LAC spreads this week. gridironinsights.com/spread-model/

TNF preview is live for #TBvsPHI. See why the model loves PHI +7, thoughts on the O/U, a few props I like, and general expectations for the game. gridironinsights.com/thursday-night…

Lol the Bills are number 1 yet are underdogs versus a team not even in the top 10 this Sunday. Power rankings are pointless

We are currently ranked 21st of 797 on the leaderboard. You can view that here: nflgamedata.com/predict/leader…

Only 84 of 797 users have been able to beat the market on NFLgamedata thus far.

So far through 4 weeks (not including MNF tonight) our model is comfortably outpacing both @FiveThirtyEight's ELO model in their forecast competition, and the general Vegas market in the prediction game on NFLgamedata.com. We are in the 99th percentile on both sites. 📈