Groot

@lord_fed bears are used to getting their balls chopped off they won’t heed this advice

Sell in May if you’re gay

@Remzztrades not throwing shades but it’s bad voodoo celebrating a win before mrkt even opens

1000%+ at the open tomorrow for you guys as well I’m losing track now.

@cloudtechbigunk @gnoble79 trying to act like a know-it-all but can’t even spell cult correctly 👻

I’ve been saying this for years that Elon Musk is not a smart man, he’s a finesser. Until recently, he also hasn’t had that much money. What Elon represents is the pinnacle of what the world has become in the last 15 years, which is that branding of your story matters more than the reality of what you’re actually capable of. All of his companies are built off loans, funding and intellectual property of other engineers. Nothing of his own origin. But since he’s white, has a snobbish European accent, talks really fast like engineers, and has a colt following of rich kid fan boys.  he’s be come the Kanye West of business and technology by only a name and not skill.  We all went to school once with that kid who was a well known finesser, he seemed to know all famous people, he seemed to always have money and he seemed to always have a plan in motion but when you talk to him or her in detail, it’s a bunch of nothing…. That’s Elon Musk aka Mr. Big Nothing  

Tesla is the most successful CON in the history of capital markets. Not because the cars are bad. But because the entire business is engineered to impress on first glance and collapse under scrutiny. And the culture around it has made facts completely IRRELEVANT. I've never seen a company where the gap between what is promised and what is delivered is this wide, for this long, with this little accountability. Tesla's Full Self-Driving system is marketed as autonomy. But it is not autonomy. It is a camera-only system running probabilistic inference. The car is making statistical guesses about what it sees, thousands of times per second, with no redundancy when those guesses are wrong. Probabilistic inference controlling a two-ton vehicle at highway speed with your family inside. NHTSA has two open investigations covering 3.2 million Tesla vehicles. One was escalated to a formal Engineering Analysis in March after 9 crashes, including a fatality, where the system FAILED to detect sun glare, fog, and dust. The cameras went blind and the car kept driving. In Austin, Tesla's robotaxi fleet has reported 15 crashes across roughly 800,000 miles. One crash every 57,000 miles. The average American driver has a police-reported crash every 500,000 miles. Tesla's robotaxis crash at roughly 4x the human rate, WITH a safety monitor sitting in the car whose only job is to prevent crashes. Waymo operates over 2,500 fully driverless vehicles across multiple cities with no human backup and maintains a crash rate 85% below human drivers across 127 million autonomous miles. Tesla has ONE unsupervised vehicle in a tiny section of Austin. But here's what really makes Tesla different from every overvalued company I've ever analyzed: The facts do not matter to the people who own this stock. Every missed deadline, every broken promise gets filtered through the same response: attack the messenger. Call them a short seller. Call them a hater. Anything to avoid looking at the actual numbers. It's an online ecosystem that has made itself completely immune to facts. And Musk baked that dynamic into the culture from the beginning. Every time the fundamentals deteriorate, the faithful don't sell. They double down. When your shareholder base treats every dip as a buying opportunity regardless of the data, the stock becomes untethered from reality entirely. That's literally a religion with a ticker symbol. I highly suggest you read Edward Niedermeyer's book Ludicrous on this. And now it even gets WORSE... CapeFearAdvisors published a piece this week that should be required reading. Tesla's 2025 CEO Performance Award contains a change-of-control provision: In the event of a change of control, ALL operational milestones are disregarded. No million robotaxis, Optimus robots, or $400 billion EBITDA. NONE of it. So if SpaceX acquires Tesla at $8.5 trillion, every tranche of Musk's 423 million share award vests immediately. A single acquisition at that price triggers the full vesting of both plans at once, with no way to claw them back. The milestones everyone argues about are just a distraction. The mechanism is the change-of-control language buried in the SEC filing. This is about engineering the largest personal wealth transfer in modern financial history and using the narrative machine to keep the price elevated long enough to execute it. I've seen every bust of the last four decades. But this one is different because the cult of personality is stronger than anything I've witnessed. The movement around this stock cannot be touched by facts, and that is what makes it so dangerous. But the math always wins. ALWAYS. It just takes longer when the con is this good.

@ParikPatelCFA he has bigger holes i mean shoes to fill

It’s crazy that Tim Cook was literally the CEO of Apple and still couldn’t get a gf

@InsideOptions_ ah i see ur backtesting stops at 2022, I guess that is why you didn’t know about the lore of james cordier. Hope ur model improves with time godspeed 🦾

@Groot751188 Show me from 2022 where daily realized exceed implied vol. pls and thanks

Merry Christmas, I wish nothing but success for all. Anytime an iron condor breaches we track the levels over the last 3 years and we build our quantitative model around this. This is the first time our series failed in over 3 years since CBOE released dailies in 2022, 1 series. you can’t backtest anything prior. So yes we are pioneers. Black Scholes options pricing formula uses implied volatility not future. I suspect these conditions offered perfect opportunity for range breaches. I didn’t expect this to be any different than any other time we traded. We have rules and followed the books. We don’t normally close trades because all stats are realized at the close, Often have seen markets breach and close back inside. This is how our long model works (the one that predicts 1SD breaches) But they don’t work together to complement short IC. The premise of our strategy is not about avoiding losses, it’s about generating positive expectancy. Positive EV in this strategy is accepting that these events will happen because it’s a probability based system , but if you started with x$ and doubled or tripled the amount, you take off principle and scale the rest with house $. In a nutshell, yes we are hurt but I don’t fucking give up. We will regroup and try again.