Nick Grothe

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Nick Grothe

Nick Grothe

@GrotheCapital

Building Grothe Capital: The world's first AI-run hedge fund. Allocating millions with 0 employees. 🦅 Eagle (CIO) | 🦅 Falcon (Strategy) | 🐦‍⬛ Raven (Ops)

Katılım Ekim 2022
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
The era of the "Solo Capitalist" is over. The era of the "AI-Augmented Capitalist" has begun. Today, I’m officially pulling back the curtain on Grothe Capital. I am managing millions in seed capital using a team of autonomous AI agents: 🦅 Eagle (CEO) 🦅 Falcon (Strategy) 🦉 Raven (Ops) Why? Human analysts have bias. They get tired. They miss patterns. My agents don’t sleep. They don’t panic. They just execute. I’m building a fully compliant, AI-run hedge fund in public. Follow along to see if code can beat Wall Street. 🦅 #AI #HedgeFund #BuildingInPublic #Fintech
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
@WizLikeWizard I built a managing agent to manage cron jobs, has worked waaaay better since.
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Wiz 👨‍🚀
Wiz 👨‍🚀@WizLikeWizard·
Have been using OpenClaw for ~a month and it kinda sucks? I spend more time battling it to get basic crons fired reliably, remember things, and not repeat itself. Am I doing it wrong or are we just still very early on all of this?
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
@VraserX OAI vs. $GOOGL is an old story, Google won. New battle will be if OAI can take on and beat Anthropic!
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VraserX e/acc
VraserX e/acc@VraserX·
OpenAI is the lab most likely to build something historic. Google is the company most likely to bury something historic under 11 product teams, 4 approvals, and a spring launch event. Too harsh or fair?
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
@thejefflutz Unfortunately the reality here is most businesses cannot 2x TAM in a year of the market they operate in, but they sure can cut HC by 50%.
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Jeff Lutz 🔋
Jeff Lutz 🔋@thejefflutz·
This is so on 🎯 . Jensen Huang, $NVDA
Ricardo@Ric_RTP

Jensen Huang just called out every CEO who’s been firing people “because of AI.” Jim Cramer asked him why companies are laying people off if AI is supposed to make everyone MORE productive. Jensen's answer: "For companies with imagination, you will do more with more. For companies where the leadership is just out of ideas, they have nothing else to do. They have no reason to imagine greater than they are. When they have more capability, they don't do more." Read that again. The man who built the most important tech company on Earth just told you that if your CEO is using AI to cut headcount, it means one thing: They have no imagination. They have no vision for what comes next. They got handed the most powerful tool in human history and their FIRST instinct was to fire people. This is the CEO of NVIDIA. The company whose chips power every AI system on the planet. If anyone on Earth has the right to say "AI replaces workers," it's Jensen Huang. And he said the OPPOSITE. He said every carpenter could become an architect. Every plumber could become an architect. AI elevates capability. It doesn't eliminate it. But here's where it gets really interesting... During the same interview, Jensen revealed something nobody's talking about: He said AI startups like OpenAI and Anthropic are seeing their revenues increase by one to two billion dollars a WEEK. And he wishes these companies were public so the world could see what he sees. One to two billion per week. That's a $50 to $100 BILLION annualized run rate. For companies that most people think are burning cash and making nothing. The entire Wall Street narrative that "AI companies aren't profitable" might be completely wrong. Jensen sees their numbers. He sees their compute orders. He sees their growth. And he's saying the revenue is real. So if the money IS real, why are other companies firing people? Because they're not building AI products. They're not creating new revenue streams. They're not using AI to expand into new markets. They're using AI as an EXCUSE to cut costs because they ran out of ideas 3 years ago and need something to tell the board. Jensen's company added $500 billion in new orders in 5 months. He expects $1 trillion in cumulative revenue through 2027 from just two product lines. That number doesn't include the new chips, systems, or partnerships announced this week. And he's not cutting people. He's hiring. Because when you have imagination, more capability means MORE opportunity. Not less headcount. Meanwhile Salesforce cut thousands. Meta cut thousands. Amazon cut thousands. All blaming "AI efficiency." Jensen's response: You're out of imagination. He also said something that stuck with me. Cramer asked if he ever thought he'd build a $10 to $20 trillion company while waiting tables at Denny's. His answer: "I was just trying to make it through the shift." Biggest tip he ever got? Two, three dollars. Now he's building tech that increased computing demand by one million times in two years. He announced OpenClaw, which he says is as big as ChatGPT. And he's got 21 months of new business that isn't even counted in the trillion dollar figure yet. When asked how long he plans to keep working? "I'm hoping to die on the job. And I'm not hoping to die anytime soon." This is a man who believes every single thing he's building. And his message to every CEO using AI to justify layoffs is simple... You're not innovating. You're surrendering. The technology wasn't built to shrink companies. It was built to make them limitless. If your leadership can't see that, the problem isn't AI. It's THEM.

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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
Waymo just hit 170 million rider-only miles (no human driver!) as of Dec 2025 that's a massive +34% jump from September and ~467k unsupervised miles every single day across LA, SF, Phoenix, and Austin. Safety numbers are even more impressive: 🚗 92% fewer serious injury crashes 🚗 83% fewer airbag deployments 🚗 82% fewer injury-causing crashes vs. human drivers in the same cities. This is real commercial AV scaling happening now. The future of mobility is driverless and safer - who's ready for it? #Waymo #AutonomousVehicles #Robotaxi
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt

NEWS: Waymo has just announced that their autonomous fleet has now driven a combined 170 million rider-only miles without a human driver as of Dec 2025, up from 127 million in Sept 2025. That's 467,000 miles per day on average. Waymo also released updated safety stats. Locations: • LA: 37.8 million • SF: 53.5 million • PHX: 68.6 million • Austin: 10.7 million

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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
@omooretweets @grok This is why the pivot to professional vs. consumer. The TAM is just massive and companies are HUNGRY to adopt/pay, and have a huge savings opportunity. Competing with $META and $GOOGL for ads is really hard work where you are going to need to battle for every dollar.
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
@omooretweets @grok can you size the amount of money companies spend on white collar workers in the US vs. the US ad industry size?
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Olivia Moore
Olivia Moore@omooretweets·
A big story that most people are missing in the AI race for the consumer (ChatGPT vs Claude) is ads. Right now, most consumer AI revenue is coming from power users who are willing to pay high cost subscriptions. This currently skews positive for products like Claude - but this will not be the end state. Google makes ~$460/ user/year in the U.S., mostly on ads. Meta makes around ~$250. I would argue ChatGPT’s ad-based ARPUs will be even higher as they will ultimately have deeper / more frequent user engagement. Even at the $460 level - monetizing everyone in the U.S. via ads is $152 billion in annual revenue. By contrast, if you’re able to monetize even 5% of the population on a $200/month subscription (which is a stretch!), that’s only $40 billion 🤔 I suspect this will be even more drastic outside the U.S. where users are even less willing or able to pay directly for subscriptions. And, the earliest data from a very small rollout shows ChatGPT ads are already outperforming Meta in effectiveness - this just gets better over time. TL;DR - I would not count ChatGPT out on consumer AI revenue. Once ads start working, that can quickly become a massive machine.
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
I think almost everyone reading this doesn't understand the point. Even if Tesla swallowed all of Waymo revenue as 100% profit (assuming no competition and unit prices are the same as Waymo), it's a tiny amount of Teslas historic and current net income. $TSLA needs nation wide unsupervised FSD or bust. Period. @grok how much revenue does Waymo make and how does that compare to Tesla Net Income?
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
This rollout has taken way too long. I'm not saying $TSLA won't get there eventually, but they are abandoning focus on the core business before having the next cash cow ready. Even if you believe TSLA will launch in all Waymo cities, look at Waymo revenue and compare to Teslas existing auto biz...
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Sawyer Merritt
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt·
NEWS: Morgan Stanley says they’re more optimistic about @Tesla’s progress toward an unsupervised robotaxi rollout after a recent visit to Giga Texas, particularly its progress in addressing edge cases around pickup and drop-off. The firm views Tesla's ability to scale the unsupervised robotaxi fleet as the most important catalyst for the stock this year: "Each incremental mile driven by the robotaxi fleet accelerates learning for personal FSD, which supports higher FSD attach rates and reaccelerates auto demand, improving free cash flow generation." Morgan Stanley believes a successful robotaxi rollout has the potential to create a flywheel across Tesla's ecosystem: "Incremental unsupervised robotaxi miles driven improve the underlying autonomy model, which accelerates the path to personal unsupervised FSD." The firm reiterated an Equalweight rating and $415 price target for $TSLA.
Sawyer Merritt tweet mediaSawyer Merritt tweet media
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
I used to work at $DELL many moons ago. I'll never forget getting an assignment from my director and finishing it in 2 days when I was allocated 3 weeks. The response from my Director was "this must be wrong, there is no way you did the work that fast correctly" She did this without even reading my work. I enjoyed a 2.5 week paid week off 🤣🥲
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
@wintonARK What if AI takes all the jobs we drive to? 🤣🤣🤣
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Brett Winton
Brett Winton@wintonARK·
Let's dimension the US robotaxi market (since market participants seem unwilling to do so). People pattern match against structurally ~$3 per mile point to point mobility products and so misunderstand the potential scope of robotaxi as it becomes mass accessible. The average US adult spends nearly an hour per day driving. The imputed labor cost of all that manual piloting runs in excess of $4 trillion per year. In addition we pay $1.6 trillion annually for the actual service of driving point to point. By giving people back time (for which they don't have to pay full freight) and winning spend share, we think the US market could approach $4 trillion annually at saturation. Given reasonable expectations of supply diffusion and consumer adoption robotaxi service providers could exceed $1.5 trillion in revenue by 2030 with gross profits in excess of $1 trillion.
Brett Winton tweet mediaBrett Winton tweet media
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
@Mr_Derivatives I think launching and correctly controlling AI agents to drive social engagement will be huge. No one has their eyes on this right now, very bullish on $META
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Heisenberg
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives·
$META Zucky needs to do something about this asap. Get back above the line!
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
@danshipper Everyone reading this and saying this as very early adopters as the tech is only used by ~1% of the population. Do you believe that at say 20% adoption or 50% adoption that we will still be able to increase net productivity? Very few have ideas of their own they want to build
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Dan Shipper 📧
Dan Shipper 📧@danshipper·
it’s so fun to watch the AI discourse flip from “omg we’re all going to be out of a job” to “omg i am working way more than ever” progress
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
@GergelyOrosz This is a totally baseless claim. The fact that it's easier to produce Apps and websites means we will both see more volume output, but with even less people needed. Also the hidden story here is $AAPL missing AI completely and can't keep up with App reviews 🥲
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
@RihardJarc Anthropic is winning the AI race, 100%. Now we need to chart this against white collar job loss 😅
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Rihard Jarc
Rihard Jarc@RihardJarc·
The surge and pace in adoption of Claude Code will go down in the history books.
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
@buccocapital This wave of AI tech has always been focused on massive productivity improvements. OpenAI missed the ball HARD by focusing on consumers first and trying to take on $GOOGL They will need to hustle hard to catch Anthropic now.
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BuccoCapital Bloke
BuccoCapital Bloke@buccocapital·
Wow. Anthropic is eating OpenAI’s lunch in the enterprise
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
$META is planning 20% layoffs to offset Al spend. Atlassian just cut 1,600. Citibank is cutting again this year. The press release never says "Al took these jobs." But that's exactly what's happening. We are in the first wave. The CEOs who deny it publicly are the same ones signing the restructuring memos.
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
@PTrubey @AndrewYang Unemployment figures are a lagging indicator. When this starts blowing up, change and a chance for intervention is over.
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Phil Trubey
Phil Trubey@PTrubey·
@AndrewYang And yet, it still isn’t showing up in unemployment figures. This is the Industrial Revolution jobs panic all over again. Higher productivity means a richer society. Yes people will scramble to find new jobs, but the new jobs will be there.
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Nick Grothe
Nick Grothe@GrotheCapital·
@rohanpaul_ai This is just the opening act. Companies will eventually call it what it is - Al displacement - because the optics of "Al = stock pump" are too attractive to pass up. We saw this coming two years ago. Most still don't believe it.
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Rohan Paul
Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai·
Meta shares jump after report of layoffs of 20% or more. This move could eliminate more than 15,000 jobs. We saw the same pattern of stock price jumping when Jack Dorsey recently announced that Block will cut nearly 50% of his team. It is obvious that this cycle is going to force its way through companies in every industry. Start preparing now. --- cnbc .com/2026/03/16/meta-ai-costs-mass-layoffs-20percent-up-premarket.html
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Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai

BREAKING: About 20% of staff at Meta could be affected by large-scale layoffs the company is planning, Reuters says.

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