Gabriel Soyer

🚨 Forthcoming in Econometrica! How does trade liberalization affect developing countries with large informal sectors? Informality fundamentally changes how we think about the gains from trade. (1/5)

Thrilled to share that my article "From the Factory Floor to the Ballot Box: Firm-Based Origins of Brazil's Populist Right" is now out at the @BJPolS doi.org/10.1017/S00071… The core finding is simple and politically urgent: Brazil’s radical-right wave wasn’t primarily driven by “the rich vs the poor”, but by workers in declining jobs inside unequal firm structures. Using RAIS matched employer–employee data + a unique dataset of 69k Bolsonaro supporters + a survey experiments on full-time private sector workers, I show that: 🔹 Workers who supported Bolsonaro experienced real relative decline: falling pay and shrinking occupational premia compared to peers just like them. 🔹 Anti-system attitudes track job quality, not class stereotypes: low autonomy, unfair treatment, and blocked mobility inside firms predict democratic frustration. 🔹 Information about earning less than comparable workers measurably decreases satisfaction with democracy. 🔹 “Low-road” firm conditions (lower pay to comparable skills and occupations, no benefits, rigid schedules, lower autonomy) make otherwise similar workers more likely to endorse anti-system behaviors. The takeaway: if we want to understand democratic backsliding, we need to look beyond “culture” or macro shocks. Firms themselves, through wage policies, segmentation, and job-quality gaps, are generating the frustrations that fuel anti-system politics. @CambridgeUP @CUPAcademic @CambridgeCore

@viniciuspecanha @IEPSoficial Que interessante e relevante!

Mais um estudo relevante pra policy do @IEPSoficial

@ryancbriggs @chadmaximusjr thanks for sharing the slides! very interesting!

@chadmaximusjr I’m glad you like the slides. I think trying to max on prestige is often a mistake. I feel very fortunate that I could land a good paying, tenured, 2-2 position and also live near my family. I turned down more prestigious positions in the US to do this, and I’ve no regrets.

A student recently asked me for academic job market advice and I pulled up a slideshow from a few years ago. I don't think I've shared it, but it might be broadly useful. I think the advice almost entirely holds up. First part is about my time on the job market 1/3

@ruivanorio a quantidade de anuncio e outdoor da avestruz master que eu lembro da infancia. Bom que conseguiu usar o OCR!

fun fact: meu mergulho mais intenso e mais desesperado em machine learning foi por causa da recuperação judicial da Avestruz Master. isso porque a gente recebeu a lista de credores, que foi publicado no jornal Diário da Manhã, e eram 32 páginas desse jeitinho

@dyzenhaus That's great! Congrats!

@baarthur0 fake news! maximo um casaquinho meio de julho

me prometeram que Brasília fazia mais frio que BH e eu ainda não precisei usar casaco :( tô aguardando!!!!