TJ Jones
36 posts


This was so free but Harper got hurt near the beginning of the 2H💔
Should have been a massive sweep for us tonight 💔

Zach Roberts@ZRob4444
Thunder vs Spurs 37.5x PrizePicks game stack for game 2🏀🔥
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How would you rate LeBron's 8-year run with the Lakers? 🤔
-- 1x NBA Champion
-- 1x Finals MVP
-- 1x NBA Cup Champion
-- 8x All-Star
-- 7x All-NBA
We broke it all down here 🔗: bleacherreport.com/articles/25427…

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@PickCityHQ Bro about to have the least amount of rebounds on the team as the center tonight
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FADE OF THE DAY 🔐
NBA POTD #1 | (5/5) 🏀
Austin Reaves "U" 31.5 PRA (-122) | @Novig
#LakeShow
This sets up as a difficult spot for Reaves to reach this number given both H2H history and matchup vs OKC.
Reaves is coming off an injury that I think is still effecting him, and probably wouldn't be playing if it wasn't the playoffs.
Recent trends are shaky:
• L5: 26.4 PRA avg
• L10: 30.1 PRA avg
He’s been inconsistent and often falling short of this number.
H2H STRUGGLES
This is where it stands out most:
• 1/10 hit rate (10%)
• 0/6 hit rate w/o Luka Doncic
• 24.0 PRA average
• Consistently landing in the low-mid 20s
OKC has clearly limited his overall production.
MATCHUP PROFILE (OKC Defense vs PG)
Only focusing on season-long defense vs PGs:
• Points allowed: 21.6 (#1)
• Rebounds allowed: 6.3 (#20)
• Assists allowed: 7.4 (#3)
This is not a favorable stat environment for PRA accumulation.
SHOT PROFILE CONCERN
Reaves’ scoring relies heavily on:
• Restricted Area (45%) — OKC ranks #3
• Paint scoring (19%) — OKC ranks top-10
• Limited reliance on perimeter volume
They take away his most efficient looks.
WHY THIS STAYS UNDER
• Elite H2H defensive success
• OKC limits primary ball-handlers
• Paint defense removes easy scoring
• Requires near ceiling game to clear
This prop is pretty much bumped down to 30.5 on every other book but I think it's definitely worth it still if you take it there.
Everything points toward suppressed production, and a matchup vs the thunder w/o Luka + a spread of 15.5 we can see Reaves out of the game by the 4th quarter.
❤️ If your tailing ‼️
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@SealieBaby @GGNBAYB It is cool when yu survived and everybody picking
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@GGNBAYB Dude tryna make getting shot up look cool, smh the people went fool
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@KinqMeech But Pooh daddy is a known informant so wat that makes them
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@JrMedford @PickCityHQ Facts Paul sold and Maxey i even green goblin maxey for 17.5
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@PickCityHQ Paul George had 16 points for half of 3rd quarter and the whole 4th absolutely robbed
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@Boston7860391 @nojumper Pooh a dumb Memphis 🥷 going back to jail don’t make you real
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