GugaOnChain

cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69bc… Retail panicked over the drop to $69.4K due to war tensions in the Middle East and oil at $116. What did 'Smart Money' do? They bought your despair and have already pushed the price back to $70,439. $BTC

The $70K Breakdown: Bear Trap or Geopolitical Collapse? via @cryptoquant_com cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69bc…

Here is the synthesized analysis through the infographic. Analysis → cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69ba… $BTC

Bitcoin’s Reaction to Powell’s Remarks — From Expectation-Driven Rally to Liquidity Validation Phase via @cryptoquant_com　(Analysis Report No.238) cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69bb…’s-Reaction-to-Powell’s-Remarks-—-From-Expectation-Driven-Rally-to-Liquidity-Validation-Phase

Fed Countdown: Bitcoin Nears $70K Support as War and Inflation Fears Rattle Global Markets via @cryptoquant_com cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69ba…

Despite fears of high interest rates, a $199 million inflow into ETFs and strong spot demand sustained Bitcoin above the $74K mark. – By @GugaOnChain

Here is the synthesized analysis through the infographic. Analysis → cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69b9… $BTC

Despite fears of high interest rates, a $199 million inflow into ETFs and strong spot demand sustain the Bitcoin above the $74K mark via @cryptoquant_com cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69b9… $BTC

Here is the synthesized analysis through the infographic. Analysis → cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69b8… $BTC

The Great Transfer: Institutions Accumulate 100 Times More Bitcoin Than Retail in 30 Days via @cryptoquant_com cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69b8…

Stablecoins Are Becoming the Core Infrastructure of On-Chain Finance via @cryptoquant_com (Analysis Report No.236) cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69b7…

Here is the synthesized analysis through the infographic. Analysis → cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69b7… $BTC

The Hidden Force of Wall Street: How American Capital is Sustaining Bitcoin Above $70K via @cryptoquant_com cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69b7…

Bitcoin: The Inflection Floor and Institutional Cleanup at $70K via @cryptoquant_com cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69b5… $BTC

Here is the synthesized analysis through the infographic. Analysis → cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69b3… $BTC

The Coiled Spring: Why $70,417K Precedes an Institutional Supply Shock via @cryptoquant_com cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69b3… $BTC

Bitcoin’s MVRV Signals a Potential Undervaluation Zone: Comparing Current Conditions with the Post-FTX Period via @cryptoquant_com (Analysis Report No.233) cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69b2…’s-MVRV-Signals-a-Potential-Undervaluation-Zone:-Comparing-Current-Conditions-with-the-Post-FTX-Period

The Bitcoin power law model looks good, but is flawed. The relationship between price and time is spurious (fake). I'll explain below. 1. The model is flawed because it does't account for autocorrelation. You can see this in the regression results, particularly in the Durbin-Watson statistic (red rectangle). It should be 2 for autocorrelation not to be present, but it's basically zero (high positive autocorrelation). Autocorrelation violates one of the key assumptions of linear regression. It doesn't matter that the R-squared is high (orange rectangle), the high R-squared is explained by the autocorrelation. The model has also other problems (blue, yellow and green rectangles) that also violate some of the assumptions of linear regression (normal distribution, etc). 2. The price of Bitcoin is autocorrelated, meaning that past data helps explain the current price, this is very common in time series analysis. You can see this in the next chart (bars outside the shaded area). 3. Power law models seem to explain well some relationships, but this is for analysis that doesn't involve time (time series). I took this chart from @dotkrueger

Here is the synthesized analysis through the infographic. Analysis → cryptoquant.com/quicktake/69b2… $BTC