Guine🅰️ pig guy

$RBLX Q1 2026 earnings: Safety Initiatives Trigger Massive Guidance Collapse Roblox's narrative reversed violently in Q1. Just three months after boasting about a 'spectacular' year and guiding to 24% full-year bookings growth, management slashed expectations to a meager 10%. The culprit? A mandatory age-check rollout that restricted on-platform communication and severely choked new user acquisition, compounded by a platform ban in Russia. DAUs fell sequentially by 12 million. While management defends these safety initiatives as establishing a 'Global Standard' to amplify long-term potential, the immediate reality is a nearly $1 billion downward revision to bookings. Aggressive strategic shifts toward older gamers and photorealism are promising, but the short-term growth engine has stalled. Full article with charts - link in bio 🐂 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗢𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗨𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴: The O18 cohort in the US grew 40% YoY and monetizes over 50% higher than U18 users. Roblox is actively accelerating this by rolling out massive DevEx rate hikes specifically for developers targeting adults. 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁: Despite top-line headwinds, Q1 Free Cash Flow grew 40% YoY to $596M, proving the underlying unit economics and operating leverage of the platform remain highly profitable. 🐻 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: The FY26 bookings growth guidance was cut from 22-26% down to 8-12%. The friction from age verification is causing a much deeper shock to user acquisition and engagement than anticipated. 𝗦𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗨𝘀𝗲𝗿 𝗕𝗹𝗲𝗲𝗱: DAUs fell from 144M in Q4 to 132M in Q1. Management explicitly guided for another sequential decline in DAUs in Q2 as algorithmic tests and safety friction persist. ⚖️ 𝗩𝗲𝗿𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁 🔴 Bearish. A nearly $1 billion reduction in full-year bookings guidance completely overshadows a decent Q1. The strategic pivot to safety and older users carries immense short-term execution risk. — • — • — 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗲𝘀 New: 🔴🔴 𝗦𝗮𝗳𝗲𝘁𝘆 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 & 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝘂𝘀𝗵 𝗨𝘀𝗲𝗿 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 Despite management's claim that setting the 'Global Standard' for safety amplifies long-term potential, the immediate data shows a severe contraction. The mandatory age-check rollout restricted chat and slowed acquisition, while the December 2025 Russia ban compounded the pain. DAUs reversed, falling sequentially from 144M in 25Q4 to 132M in 26Q1, contradicting the narrative of unhindered network effects. 🟢 𝗔𝗴𝗴𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝘂𝘀𝗵 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗢𝟭𝟴 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘀 To offset broader headwinds, Roblox is aggressively targeting the O18 demographic. In the US, O18 DAUs grew 40% YoY and monetize over 50% higher than U18 users. To accelerate this, management is introducing a massive targeted DevEx rate increase—from 26.6% to 37.8%—for creators building novel games that utilize R15 avatars and attract age-checked US adults. New: 🟢 𝗣𝗵𝗼𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗺 𝘃𝗶𝗮 '𝗥𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗼𝘅 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆' Moving beyond blocky aesthetics, the company unveiled 'Roblox Reality.' This hybrid architecture blends the Roblox Game Engine with Video World Models and over 400 AI models. It allows creators to stream photorealistic, hyperscale multiplayer environments to low-end mobile devices, a critical technological leap to attract traditional hardcore gamers. New: 🔴 𝗔𝗹𝗴𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗺 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗻 𝗤𝟮 𝗘𝗻𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 A new headwind is emerging in Q2: recommendation engine overhauls. Roblox is running large-scale experiments to optimize for 28-day retention rather than immediate engagement. Management explicitly warned these tests will weigh on Q2 engagement and bookings, adding another layer of friction to near-term performance. New: ⚪ 𝗟𝗲𝗴𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝘁𝘀 The push for youth safety carries tangible costs. Roblox accrued $57M in Q1 for settlements with states over youth-related consumer protection. Furthermore, unaccrued elements like public service campaigns and new law enforcement liaisons will create a lingering drag on operating expenses. New: 🟢 𝗥𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗼𝘅 𝗣𝗹𝘂𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗮𝗺𝗽𝘀 𝗦𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 Roblox is replacing its allowance-based Premium with 'Roblox Plus' ($4.99/month). It focuses on deep retention perks: item discounts, free private servers, and exclusive trading rights. Roblox funds the discount so creators earn a higher effective share, aligning platform economics with subscriber growth. — • — • — 𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗞𝗣𝗜𝘀 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝘄 (𝟮𝟲𝗤𝟭): $𝟱𝟵𝟲 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 Stable. Up 40% YoY. Operating cash flow remains robust at $629M, indicating that despite the top-line shocks, the company's unit economics and working capital management continue to generate massive liquidity. 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗘𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗲𝘀 (𝟮𝟲𝗤𝟭): $𝟰𝟮𝟯 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 Grew 50% YoY, continuing to outpace revenue growth (39%). DevEx consumed 29% of revenue, up from 27% a year ago. This reflects the full impact of the 8.5% platform-wide rate hike implemented in late 2025, continuing to act as a structural drag on margins. — • — • — 𝗚𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗙𝗬𝟮𝟲 𝗕𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀: $𝟳.𝟯𝟯 - $𝟳.𝟲𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 Decelerating. Implies 8-12% YoY growth, a violent slowdown from 2025's ~50% growth rate. This represents a nearly $1 billion cut from the previous FY26 guidance midpoint provided just three months ago. 𝗙𝗬𝟮𝟲 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗲: $𝟱.𝟴𝟲𝟱 - $𝟲.𝟭𝟯𝟱 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 Decelerating. Implies 20-25% YoY growth, stepped down from the prior guidance of 23-29%. The revenue deceleration is softer than bookings due to the delayed recognition of deferred revenue from prior high-growth quarters. 𝗙𝗬𝟮𝟲 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝘄: $𝟭.𝟬𝟱 - $𝟭.𝟮𝟳𝟱 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 Reversing. Down from ~$1.35B generated in FY25. This is a massive $500M+ cut from the prior $1.6B-$1.8B guidance, reflecting the flow-through impact of the bookings collapse. 𝗤𝟮 𝟮𝟲 𝗕𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀: $𝟭.𝟱𝟱 - $𝟭.𝟲𝟭 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 Decelerating. Implies 8-12% YoY growth, down sharply from 43% in Q1. Management explicitly projects a sequential decline in DAUs, citing ongoing age-check headwinds and algorithmic optimization. — • — • — 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗤𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗗𝗔𝗨 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 DAUs fell by 12 million sequentially. How much of this specific drop is attributable to the Russia ban versus the friction from the age-check rollout? 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗘𝘅 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 The new 37.8% DevEx rate for O18 US users is a massive premium. If this cohort grows as aggressively as targeted, what is the modeled impact on overall gross margins? 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗹𝗴𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗺 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 You noted that Q2 recommendation experiments will weigh on engagement. How long is the optimization period expected to last before these changes yield a positive inflection in 28-day retention?

Contemplating creating a server this weekend to begin consolidating all of my work. Completely free. It would be complimentary to my posts here and essentially act as a database to store my charts, cleanly organized ticker by ticker. This way, the story of a chart you’re interested in is easy to follow. It would come with a few other channels. One dedicated to chart requests, one for thoughtful discussion between those within the server, and one for my newsletter, still released through Substack. Another I would consider is a channel to track my watchlist and portfolio more closely, including entries and exits. It’s a system that would open the door to more active, consistent communication from my end and feel less overwhelming for myself due to the orderly nature of the server. Is there demand for this? I’ll gauge it with a poll. Thanks!

$AMD Fundamental Deep Dive 🟢 OVERVIEW As we approach lows, I am keen on one opportunity in the semiconductor space more than others. Advanced Micro Devices, most popularly known as $AMD. I started a position overnight with plans to average down as needed. Technically, I await $150-$170 as the ideal range for accumulation, coinciding with its Weekly MAs and gap fill; however, as I lean towards a near-term broader market low being put in here. Therefore, I felt entering was within reason. Downside risk from $185 felt insignificant. $AMD sits at a $320B market capitalization. Its valuation reflects strong growth expectations with a 74x Trailing P/E and 9x P/S Ratio, indicative of the stock sitting at a premium. However, with a 29x forward P/E and PEG of 0.7, this becomes less concerning. Especially when considering their inflection in growth + profitability alongside the strong balance sheet (-$6.7B Net Debt). ------------------- FY2025 REVIEW AMD operates as a fabless semiconductor leader across CPUs, GPUs, and embedded solutions. FY2025 results showed significant momentum, with annual revenue of $34.6B, growing +34% YoY. Data Center Segment delivered $16.6B (+32% YoY), driven by EPYC server CPUs and Instinct AI accelerators. This is only the beginning of this vertical and their future driver of growth. Excited to see how their MI450 Instinct performs in $META and other client's data centers in 2H 2026 and beyond. Client & Gaming Segment delivered $14.6B (+51% YoY), supported by an increase in Ryzen market share, GPU sales, and success with custom chips. This one shocked me, but it makes sense as $NVDA focuses less on the gaming sector, the original foundation of both these companies. Profitability expands and is set to explode in the years moving forward as AI products mix into the portfolio. Non-GAAP gross margin reached 52% as operating income and EPS came in at a strong $7.8B and $4.17, respectively. FCF and EBITDA naturally remain strong thanks to the capital-expenditure being light with their fabless model. ------------------- GROWTH OUTLOOK Under CEO Lisa Su, AMD has consistently outperformed expectations. Management projects >35% revenue CAGR over the next 3–5 years, driven largely by data center + AI acceleration. ➯ Data Center Segment = CAGR >= 60% ➯ Non-GAAP Operating Margins >= 35% ➯ Long-term EPS (2029+) >= $20 Product roadmaps support this outlook. Next-generation AI accelerators such as MI450 + Helios Rack systems, deploying by the end of 2026 with the MI500 series on-deck in 2027. This alongside upcoming EPYC server CPUs. Over 2026, the company is projected to report $47B Revenue and $6.8 EPS. This will be followed by $67B Revenue and $11 EPS in 2027, implying 30% growth YoY, impressive for already large amounts of revenue. I've shared charts detailing the growth to expect in the coming years and quarters both. You can see that, by the end of 2026, $AMD will start inflecting hard in growth and profitability. I want to be positioned before this. The primary competitor remains $NVDA, which still dominates the AI GPU market with its CUDA ecosystem. However, $AMD is gaining traction through open-platform software, competitive CPU leadership, and hyperscaler partnerships. Key structural advantages include chiplet architecture, diversified revenue streams, and strong execution history. Risks include software ecosystem gaps versus CUDA, geopolitical export restrictions, and cyclical demand in PCs or gaming. ------------------- FAIR VALUE ESTIMATE Using an aggregated valuation approach (DCF + relative multiples + analyst consensus), AMD appears moderately undervalued relative to its growth trajectory. DCF (Base Case): $250–270/share Relative Multiples: $240–280/share Street Consensus: $260 Aggregate FVE = $255/share *Implies ~30% upside from current prices if $AMD executes moving forward QoQ. And, of course, this estimate will only explode higher as they grow FY2027 onwards. This is just the estimate with the current state of fundamentals, which doesn't consider nominal calculations or future growth. ------------------- LONG-TERM ESTIMATES Assuming $AMD consistently meets aggressive growth targets (revenue CAGR >35% and margins expanding toward management goals), this is their potential path forward valuation-wise when using P/E multiples and expected EPS values. End-2026 = $350 End-2027 = $500 End-2028 = $650 End-2029 = $800 This assumes sustained AI demand. Competitive pressure, export controls, or a slowdown in AI spending could compress valuations by 20–30%. On the other hand, faster AI adoption could push outcomes higher. All in all, I'm very high on this investment in the years to come and find that it is a trillion dollar company in the making.

$ASTS: 🚨🇺🇸 FCC GRANTS AST SPACEMOBILE FULL COMMERCIAL APPROVAL FOR PLANNED 248 SATELLITE CONSTELLATION

$ASTS Minor Wave 3 (of PW1) = $137 ... IF VALID LT Wave 5 PT = $166+ 🟢 Base Case With a successful attempt at forming a higher low here, the stock if AST SpaceMobile could kickstart its trek far higher over the coming months via LT Wave 5, completing the last leg of its initial Bull Cycle. This price action would align with the acceleration of their launch campaign, beginning with the upcoming BB7 launch next week with Blue Origin. Thus, this may be the last opportunity to add the name below $100. However, this will only stand if Minor Wave 2 of Primary Wave 1 of LT Wave 5 can hold $77-$79 or above. There is plenty of confluent support to allow it, but ideally we formed the low today off the .618 Fib ($84). Considering the data I shared earlier today, this may be entirely possible. It's just waiting to rip as the Bi-Daily Bollinger Bands are extremely tight and a base breakout above $100+ will provide strong momentum moving forward. Fingers crossed the current count remains valid as Minor Wave 3 onset would take the stock towards ATHs of $137 as base case, and this would be an extremely strong start to LT Wave 5, meaning the stock could bring into play overextension towards $220+ as targets. Invalidating the setup by losing the Daily 100MA and the $77-$79 support would mean a re-visit of the Daily 200MA ($72) or lower, perhaps even the $50s or $60s via C-Wave of LTW4 if the 200DMA cannot hold.