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$BTC data analysis Why there is a 0% chance the macro top is in, and why it makes 0 sense to call it now IMO. Wanted to post an extensive version first, but this is more an "ease of mind" post, not requiring all that much depth as this theory I am about to share is so simple, yet so effective. So effective in fact it's once again supporting my open bullish stance I started once price hit 80k recently on $BTC, pretty much exactly when all of twitter started suddenly acting bearish or cautiously (read: low conviction) "bullish". So wanted to give more data on why I am taking quite the opposite stance, also releasing some more educational terms and a re-hash of OHLC theory as I rarely see anyone talk about it. Likely because no one really knows it, and maybe because it's too good to be shared for free. But you know me.. I share almost everything for free, with weekly posts of deep knowledge not often shared or talked about. Only the very rare occasion of highly secret strategies may be more exclusive, but I overall aim to keep the threshold for paid content much higher and infrequent compared to today's twitter standard... Probably will regret sharing this as everyone may start using it. But I am highly confident that the participants in an asset as pristine and controversial as $BTC remain highly emotional for a long time on all levels, thus, the intricacies of this theory will be far forgotten each and every time the chart prints green extremes or red extremes. So let's get to it, piece by piece. OHLC Candle theory The ones who have been following for a while know my OHLC Candle Theory. If not, in short OHLC theory saids: "if the previous candles' high has been taken, the low being taken during the same candle is rare". Very simple theory yet effective. Highly recommend to back test it yourself. And it's very useful to shape soft biases too. Soft biases What's a soft bias? A soft upside bias = price likely goes up or sideways until a certain date hits, i.e., price does not go down until a certain date hits. i.e. price has time to go up and sideways unless that certain date hits. The same is true for a soft downside bias in vice versa manner. Soft biases are useful to prevent you from taking stupid positions or highly likely wrong moves and it even allows you to go aggressive in certain situations. It goes hand in hand with OHLC theory because let's say a candle just printed with the low at 80k and the high at 90k, the candle closes, and the next candle opens, moves a hair above 90k (takes the high), then drops hard immediately and early on in the candle, straight to 81k. Twitter will be full bearish most likely, yet OHLC tells you to not short or panic sell your bags immediately, or even take a long or buy big against the world watching the charts, because OHLC tells you 80k is unlikely to be breached,. And the whales are just trying to shake you out. And given the candle is still young, likely a bounce, and, often (mostly) just new highs too as whales loaded again to release at a new high for a continued, bullish trend. That prevents you from making a crucial mistake and make money at the same time, and trading & investing is about winning a lot but also about reducing mistakes, to propel your capital growth. Current $BTC OHLC analysis Now lets get to some real data useful to act (or not act) upon. Currently on $BTC, we have 2 very clean soft upside biases, using the quarterly and yearly charts. If you noticed, this quarter, we set a new ATH, which means we took the high of the candle of the previous quarter. That means the low of previous quarter, 58.9k, won't be taken, (if ever - no guarantees), until April. Doesn't sound glamorous, but with some of the calls out there, that weeds out at least half of the noise out there already. It gets even better when zooming out to the yearly. Again, the ATH has been taken this year, which means, price is very unlikely to reach below 38.5k in all of 2025. Now let that one sink in too. This means we won't (by any means likely) see a 38.5 k in all of 2025 (if ever) on $BTC i.e. a 50% drop from here. Sounds like a large move, and it doesn't rule out mid timeframe drops. But that again weeds out all the high timeframe bears who are calling this to be a top already so soon etc. etc. Since inception, $BTC is 16 candles old, and not a single yearly candle has ever taken the previous years' candle high and previous years' candle low at the same time. i.e., the statistical chance of it happening right now is 0/16 i.e. 0%. That to me, is data to be cautious with on the bearish side. Especially when we know that $BTC never ranged for 3 quarters in a row, so that also weeds out the scenario of $BTC dropping near previous candles low, and ranging until the end of 2025. We also know that every single bullish yearly candle recovers before hitting the 50% fib retrace level on log (currently at 74k) (always use log for large moves and timeframes on volatile assets such as $BTC). So all data combined, tells us a simple story, once again, that the bottom is likely in or very close (I am still daring to hold on to my stance that I think it's in already), and that only a black swan could take us into a large plunge, down below 74k, maybe propelled into a gigantic drop into the 50's, high 40's. But I don't think that is likely. Only if (if) that price hits, it's just going to be one of those times to buy (where I buy) massively (NFA), going all in with all dry powder I have left whilst the whole world is scared to buy, just like our actions during covid, using the same exact theory. If you already hold, that's going to be one of those times to hold spot, to not make the mistake of selling, to not close longs early, or even worse, shorting into a generational low. It's not something I plan for, nor trade for (not short here, in fact I am long as you know...). Success has never fallen into my hands by turning into the people wanting or claiming to be as genius as Michael Bury, trying to short black swans, so it's not something I expect as a famous mentor once told me... "most money is made in the business as usual scenario". Michael Bury isn't so fit anymore nowadays, he's rich anyways. Anyways... The point is.. Conclusion ...regardless of all the doomsday talk out there this post once again solidifies why I am bullish, why it makes sense to be bullish from the 80's here from yet another viewpoint. Why I in fact expect higher once again, with high conviction. And why, if (only on the small chance of the if) we slide any further, I expect a big drop, worth buying and worth going all in on, not worth shorting into or be that guy who wastes his capital by selling low into the prices now to try and buy back lower. Those odds for me simply don't add up and it's not worth it. And it also explains why, I don't think it's likely the macro top is in. Hope you enjoyed this analysis. Best of luck to the bears, wish the best to the bulls with their continued cruise, for the rest of this year. The cycle is not over yet IMO, but we shall see, who bites the biggest bags of cash from here. See you later, alligator.

to everyone in azuki, now it’s our turn to step up