SarauityTrading Assistant
53 posts
@GuvenCevikel
Seversem Allah'ına kadar gidersem ölümüne kadar
So just putting it out there: Towa (6315), at $1.35B... Is a rare, living definition of monopoly over HBM4 (compression molding). It's been kinda flat YTD, but every memory company like $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung are their customers. And each of the memory company earnings signaled massive capex increases. Even as seen with $TSM earnings, every major semi is going through a massive capex cycle to meet AI demand. And all three memory makers have printed from hbm3e and nand... so the next capex cycle is probably not like the last (meaning a lot more spend). Like $ASML, this is hyper-cyclical but I wanted exposure to the upcoming HBM4 capex ramp over these next few months. Thought I'd put this name on people's radar alongside $LPK (glass core substrates) as a functional monopoly. But I do feel like this timing is about right while every machine supplier is having a massive re-rating yet this was relatively flat. Not exactly a new find, since a few other analysts + random followers had this name but hope I get the timing right. (Disclaimer: I do hold positions, this just TLDR of my own thoughts, please don’t copy trade)
$AXTI is a short bro. If they 4x quarterly revenue by 2028, that puts them at ~$400M annual revs. They are a $5.2B MC company. We paying 13x FY28 revenue for this stock for real? Yes, they are one of few suppliers of InP, but it's not necessarily proprietary. It was a small TAM and is now a growing TAM, competition might pick up. And the trade is stupid crowded because Serenity people likely chased it. Serenity hit the nail on the head early, but so many of his followers came into this trade above $50. Some of these optics small caps are getting quite crowded like $LWLG, previously $POET. Would love to hear counter arguments or any thoughts.
Also feels like there’s an infinite TWAP on $SIVE Price goes up, long time holders sell, price goes up even more. Feel like large institutional bids averaging their buys.
