Horse Racing Excuses and Spin

If you like to burn money on fire, these tools are a good follow

@HobbesBuddy @JimB11883 They come back within a day or two The ones who like to announce they are leaving as a way of getting attention are back quickly

@HRX_Excuses @JimB11883 Remember how many people "quit" after the Breeder's Cup last year? We need a "Where are they now?"

Beyond ridiculous. I will be stepping away after the Belmont. I can't make money betting against computers.

this dude gets paid for this and nerd stats no one cares about What a world

@raypaulick @DonnaBBrothers Greg McCarron was better

You must be the meanest person in horse racing because you've made so many jockeys cry after they win a big race! But seriously, what a valuable part of NBC's coverage you have been, and your post-Kentucky Derby interview with Jose Ortiz was masterful, right down to the "hey!" when your pony got a little out of line.

🥰

Blocking us only reaffirms our belief in this tool We will now track this one in more detail @HorseToWatch

Don’t miss this if you intend on placing losing wagers today Their track record is horrid

@EJXD2 Let us be said we have no idea why an entity would actually pay someone to go interview connections after a race when they all have the same cookie cutter comments/excuses Rinse and repeat

Let it be said that I’ll do whatever it takes to get the interview. Even take out a teletimer pole.

@ScottShap34 @EJXD2 @LaurelPark @PreaknessStakes We missed it Thankfully We will, however, hold you accountable later

If you missed it, @EJXD2 and I just finished chatting the entire card at @LaurelPark today for @PreaknessStakes Day. LFG!

@singmysongbird One race in nine months He may need another break

Reigning Horse of the Year SOVEREIGNTY back to work this morning over the Oklahoma training track. NYRA clockers caught him covering a half-mile in 50 seconds flat as he aims for the G1 Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs.

@trifectabox One race in nine months He probably needs another break

Sovereignty back on the work tab Saturday morning at Saratoga:

@atTheTrack7 TMI dude But we commend the effort

Was asked to put my Preakness Horse by Horse Analysis into one post. So, if you are interested, here you go: TAJ MAHAL Ran off early in the Federico Tesio and was allowed to slow the pace down dramatically down the backstretch into the far turn, running a third quarter in a standardbred-like 26.50 seconds and a middle half-mile in 50.37 seconds. That is something that will not happen in The Preakness. Is he forced to go from the rail and can he out-foot Napoleon Solo to the lead? The pace figures to be much faster than his last run. The Tesio has produced one winner of the Preakness, that was over 40 years ago. Horse he beat in the Miracle Wood by a neck came back to run 3rd in the Private Terms. Has been beating the same horses repeatedly in Maryland. Ragozin Pattern – Strong, paired up his debut last out. Fits from a figure/pattern standpoint. My position – A likely underlay given the Brittany Russel storyline which will produce “novice” wagering handle landing here. I don’t think he is quick enough to make the lead over Napoleon Solo, which means he would likely have to show he can stalk from an inside position, rate, put the speed away and hold off the closers. All that happening seems unlikely. OCELLI If you like him, you are going from 70-1 down to 6-1 here. He has gotten favorable pace scenarios and favorable trips in his last two races. In both the Sam F. Davis and Virginia Derby, he moved too early. In the Wood Memorial, he moved at the right time in the stretch and benefited from a pace-collapse, but could not out-foot Albus or Right to Party. In the Kentucky Derby, he made the same menacing move. In fact, at one point he was alongside Renegade and got 5 lengths separation from him and he flattened late again. He seems to hang in his stretch runs and leaned in badly in the stretch of the Derby. While he can certainly hit the board, his move is not prolonged enough, which results in a true lack of finish and that is why he does not win races. I just believe someone else will finish better. Ragozin Pattern – Very strong, moving to a new top in the Kentucky Derby off a pair-up in the Wood Memorial. Figure in the Derby makes him a win player. My position – I am typically against horses who benefited from pace collapses, especially at 10% of the price of their last race. Sure, he may get that scenario again, but there is more value in other closers. CRUPPER Dramatically improved across all figures in the Bath House Row. Third place finisher there came back to run third in an Arkansas Bred Stake and was previously 7th at 67-1 in the Arkansas Derby. Runner-up from his last race is still eligible for n2L allowance company. Hard to envision a scenario where he works out a trip and improves enough to be a player. Ragozin Pattern – Strong, running a slight new-top last out, but while the pattern is strong, the figures are too slow. My position – Playing against on all tickets ROBUSTA Has run a race, the San Felipe, that makes him competitive in this race. But up to this point, that race was the exception more than the rule. Bumped with Further Ado out of the gate, did not show his typical early speed and was the widest horse in the race on the first turn and down the backstretch. Based on the performances by the Southern California horses in the Derby (So Happy – 9th, Potente – 12th, Robusta – 14th, Intrepido – 16th, Litmus Test – 17th, Pavlovian – 18th), I have to land on that group just not being very good. That said, of all the horses in the Kentucky Derby from California, he had the worst trip. Ragozin Pattern – Had a great pattern going into the Santa Anita Derby and then threw in back to back clunkers. Would need to get back close to his San Felipe figure. My position – I am against the California three year olds in these “classic” races until proven wrong. TALKIN Has run three races around two turns and has lost ground in the stretch to the winner in each of those three races, granted one was the Blue Grass and Further Ado. Believed he had a solid trip in the Tampa Bay Derby and was just running behind better horses and this field you can argue is not better horses. Expect him to be father behind that his previous runs, which given the pace here might be a benefit. I just don’t know how far this horse really wants to go and if a change in running style will help him here. Irad Ortiz is likely to impact his price as well. Ragozin Pattern – Has yet to run faster than he did as a two year old and those were one-turn races, which is a concern here. My position – I think he will be a solid horse going one turn in the future and expect he will find this elongated route too long. He is a play against for me on the top, but could be a deep underneath use in verticals. CHIP HONCHO Exits the same three races that produced the Kentucky Derby winner. His forward style amongst a field that nearly all are looking for a similar trip is problematic. He has run some very strong and very brave races in Louisiana. In the Lecomte, he was very wide early, which likely contributed to his throwing in the towel late. His Risten Star against Palladin was tremendous and that race can win this, I just don’t see a scenario with him coasting on that kind of a lead here. Expect more of a trip like the Louisiana Derby and I am concerned that simply will not work here. Similar to Robusta, he has one race that makes him a player here, but from a figure standpoint, that is the exception and more than the rule. But, you can argue he simply regressed off that big figure in the Risen Star. There are pros and cons with him to be sure. But he is going to have to run a winning race, while having to stalk from just off the pace and he has not done that to this point. Ragozin Pattern – Bounced off a new top when running in the Louisiana Derby, but his figure in the Risen Star looks imposing against this group and it really comes down to whether or not this is the race he runs back to that? My position – He is probably better than a lot of these horses and if he can avoid a rough trip being on the pace, I prefer him to hang around more than others that are forward but believe a win is out of reach. THE HELL WE DID Has shown an ability to come from off the pace despite his tactical speed and that is a plus in this race. He is running much father than he ever has before. But, he is a kin to Senor Buscador who was a two-turn route performer at the G1/G2 level, as well as a couple of others who performed well around two turns. He beat four next out-winners in his Maiden win, including the runner up to Crupper in the Bath House Row. Ran a huge race off the layoff at Sunland, but he literally beat horses who ran for $5k and $12.5k claiming tags in there. That said, the figure was the figure and it makes him competitive here. The winner of the Lexington was an even 3rd in the Peter Pan, which I suppose is not great, but he paired up his figure off a big leap forward. Lightly raced with upside at a price. I believe the Lexington was a better race overall than many others seem to believe. The fact that Trensetter was third in the Peter Pan is not as important as the fact that he validated his Lexington figure there. Ragozin Pattern – Regressed slightly off the big win at Sunland, but his last race was not a bad number. He fits on figures. My position – Might get the right trip and the right price to add spice to the exotics and build some tickets around. BULL BY THE HORNS Ran the best race of his career defeating the eventual Lexington winner in the process when last seen in the Rushaway, but the figure was very light. Several horses have come out of that race to run much faster in their next two starts including blowout Oaklawn allowance winner J J Grey, who won with an 87 Beyer there, so I am guessing the Rushaway figure is lighter than it should be. He is going to be the best price of the closers by far and if I think the Rushaway has been proven to be a light figure, where the horses around him are coming back to run mid 80’s on the Beyer Scale, why can’t he do that and run 3rd here? Sure, this is based on my belief that the Rushaway figure is wrong, but there has been enough horses to come out of that race and dramatically improve to validate that view. I also have little trouble taking that position for a horse who will be 30-1. Ragozin Pattern – Paired his top last time and expect him to run a new top here, but it is slower than most of the runners. My position – Wish he were faster on Ragozin, but still going to include him underneath at a big number in case this race falls apart. IRON HONOR Has not run back to his debut from a figure standpoint which always concerns me when that race was a sprint. His two best races by far were around one turn. In The Wood Memorial, he was forced wide into the first turn and was hit sideways a bit as well and he seemed to then grab onto the bit and pull at the rider some before landing in a good spot. That race did collapse though. He was being asked and ridden from the half-mile pole and to me, he just did not appear comfortable for much of the race. It was probably a better race than it appeared to be. Taking the blinkers off as well here in an interesting move. Last point, the Wood Memorial figures may be too light as several horses have come out of the Wood Memorial to run “faster” than they ran in the Wood. If the early bump and wide portion of the first turn and subsequent rankness took the starch out of him in the Wood, isn’t he a logical candidate to run better here? Ragozin Pattern – He has obviously gone backwards off his very fast debut, but he also shows a race on paper fast enough to win. Which version shows up here? My position – If he is 4-1, it’s obviously worth trying to beat him. If he’s 8-1, it’s worth using him. Price will be a huge factor here because he has a race good enough to win, maybe two. NAPOLEON SOLO Very similar horse to Iron Honor in that his two best races are around one turn. He actually ran deceptively well though as the pace-setter in a Wood Memorial where the race collapsed. That line is better than it looks. Can he carry his speed all the way in a field that seems to have so much early foot in it and he will likely face a lot of pressure? He is going to have to run hard from here if he wants the lead and I imagine with Paco on board, that is the plan. He is by Liam’s Map, whose best three runners are best on turf and this horse is out of a stakes winning mare on turf, so have to imagine it is only a matter of time before we see that surface switch. Still, he is talented enough to win this race. You can argue there is not a horse in this field who ran a race as good as his Champagne last year. But, the pace scenario is my primary concern and if it did him in the Wood Memorial, a race that many people deemed to be weak, why would he fare better here? Such a tough call. Ragozin Pattern – Again, like Iron Honor, yet to run back to his 2YO top and last time actually ran his “slowest” race. Not a great pattern. My position – I am taking the same approach here as Iron Honor, price dictates my opinion. I think both have about the same chance to win this race and will see what value they offer. CORONA DE ORO Since he has stretched out in distance, he has been much more forward, in fact he has been on the lead in both races. I don’t believe that helps him here and a return to previous tactics would be to his benefit. If you like The Hell We Did, which I do, it’s hard to completely eliminate this horse from consideration given that they both exit the Lexington Stakes. The rail was also not the place to be at Keeneland that day. He took advantage of a good rail and speed bias at the Fair Grounds two back. His sprint effort three back was a solid group as six of the horse came back to an on-the-board finish with three winning. He is a little sneaky in here, I just am not sure about how this race works for his style, tactically. He also ran his two best races/figures on Lasix which is another question. Another with potentially more questions than answers, but he will be a price. Ragozin Pattern – He actually had a great pattern going into the Lexington. Ran a new top in his first start at three and again a new top in the maiden win. Can he move back forward off a regression? My position – An unlikely winner, but a horse that is fast enough to include underneath in gimmicks at a good number and may include on top in some gimmicks. INCREDIBOLT Looked like a major player in the Street Sense last year, I just don’t think he has taken much of a step forward from that form as a three year old. Got a great ride and trip beating an overmatched group in the Virginia Derby and then got a great ride and trip, but could only manage a 6thplace finish in the Kentucky Derby in a race where the pace fell apart and he had a great set-up. You can say that he was closer than the other deep closers and that is true, but when he was asked to go, Ocelli’s turn of foot was dramatically more impressive than Incredibolt. Sure, Incredibolt did more running earlier in the race, but it is really hard for me to take the view that because he was “only” 10 lengths back, he offered less punch late. While Ocelli improved in the Debry, Incredibolt did not, from a figure standpoint. I guess the question is, why would he improve here, two weeks later? Credit to the connections for running back, as they recognize the opportunity given the expected pace dynamics of the race. Ragozin Pattern – He’s stagnant. Paired up his top figure in the Florida Derby, or close to paired up and then took a small step back. I don’t see why he should move forward that much here. My position – Another horse where price will determine how heavily I use him. He will be on the bottom of everyone’s tickets so I am not sure how much value there is here. GREAT WHITE Derby gate scratch has one race on dirt and I really have no idea what to make of it. He ended up on the lead in the Blue Grass and I am not sure that is where he wanted to be. I respect the win over Fulleffort, who I believed had a big shot in the Derby, but this is a horse with a lot to prove. He’s also 6-1 in the early wagering which would make him a takeout reducer in my opinion. Ragozin Pattern – Might have bounced in the Blue Grass? He has a figure to run back to that would make him somewhat competitive here, but can he run that figure on dirt? My position – There are a lot of questions to answer here, too many for my liking, especially at what looks like an massive underlay at this point. Pass. PRETTY BOY MIAH The post position gods were not kind to a horse that is interesting. His win two back was wild. He hooked a speed horse through very strong fractions, put that horse away while in hand, two horses came up to him and he rebroke and pulled away like a good thing. One of those horses he beat came back to win a Maiden event at Aqueduct impressively this week (Silver Talent). Pulled away impressively again in his follow-up run in a Starter Allowance – Optional Claimer. It is also a tough spot to stretch out around two turns for the first time. That run to the first turn is not very long. This is a talented horse, but the hurdles are not insignificant given his running style and the potential pace of this race tied into the post position. Also, he has to come off Lasix. Another with a lot of question, but you are going to get a number here on a talented horse. Ragozin Pattern – He has run the same figure in three of his four starts, so when will he improve that number? Here seems unlikely. My position – Had he drawn better, I would be more inclined to use him more prominently. I will include him in verticals, because I do believe this to be a talented horse.

@DRFGrening May want to choose another water to dip in That will obsolete in 10 years and pays like shit

Son dipping his toe in the sports journalism waters.

@EJXD2 @PreaknessStakes No one cares about these stats Go home to your family You have averaged 37 tweets a day for over a decade. 24 hours, 7 days a week. Put the phone away for an hour.

Updated @PreaknessStakes win odds if based on the exacta pool

@Zipseatthetrack Sure it will Show us proof

If Preakness Stakes weekend is half as good to me as Kentucky Derby weekend and the Breeders' Cup, I will be very happy 🤞Good luck, everyone! 🍀🏇

@EJXD2 @InsideThePylons @derby1592 Your bar is low if this is worst little guy How about horses dying, that would be by far the worst

@derby1592 This is, by far, the worst thing I’ve ever read about horse racing, handicapping, and/or gambling

This reads like a scripted shill. No words…

@alabamastakes @OutrunTheOdds lol

@OutrunTheOdds @HRX_Excuses Can’t believe Andy and Maggie are demoting you. Saturday shows with Sara were the best.

We will dive into accounts like these in the coming weeks who are notorious for fleecing the public. We will audit and hold these people accountable

@EJXD2 @PreaknessStakes No one cares about these nerd stats. Tell me the win percentage of the horse that takes its last leak before loading into the gate.

Since 2013, horses who were never favored in a previous race are 0-for-28 in the @PreaknessStakes. This year, that covers Ocelli, Crupper, Robusta, Talkin, Napoleon Solo, and Great White.

@alabamastakes @CroixBoy @OutrunTheOdds Nope Try again

@HRX_Excuses @CroixBoy @OutrunTheOdds Your alter ego, hossy.

@alabamastakes @CroixBoy @OutrunTheOdds Who is Bernie Lootz?

@HRX_Excuses @CroixBoy @OutrunTheOdds Says Bernie Lootz who had to abandon his $100 a day thread that was so embarrassing he had to give it up before the meet ended. How much were you down Hossy ?