Harald Schendera

@elonmusk Brag as brag can.

Catch as catch can

Looks like CGI, but these are all real video highlights from the @PolarisProgram space mission

Americans are officially out of savings: US net savings as a % of GDP by households, businesses, and the government have been negative for 6 consecutive quarters. In other words, Americans are producing much less than they consume. Since 1947, there were only two other times when savings were negative, in 2008 and 2020. This comes after the US government's deficit hit $2.1 trillion over the last 12 months with spending reaching $6.9 trillion. At the same time, the personal savings rate fell to 2.9%, the second lowest since 2008. National savings are at crisis levels.

BREAKING: Total consumer credit jumped by $25.5 billion in July and reached a new all-time high of $5.1 trillion. This marked the largest jump since November 2022 and the 11th straight monthly increase. Total consumer debt has DOUBLED in 14 years. Revolving debt, which includes credit cards, jumped by $10.6 billion and also hit a new record of $1.4 trillion. Non-revolving credit rose by $14.8 billion and is just $2 billion below the January peak of $3.73 trillion. Meanwhile, the share of credit card debt delinquencies soared to 9.1%, the highest level in 12 years. The debt mountain is collapsing.

This is insane: Interest expense on US Federal debt is now at a record $3 billion PER DAY. This is TRIPLE the amount paid 10 years ago and has DOUBLED in just 2.5 years. Total annual interest costs on Federal debt reached a whopping $1.1 trillion in Q2 2024. Even if the Fed cuts rates by 1% and all government bond yields decline by 1%, daily interest expense will still be $2.5 billion. That would be more than double the average paid in 2009-2019. Debt crisis is an understatement.

BREAKING: US home prices rose 5.4% year-over-year in June and hit a new all-time high. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks the purchase prices of single-family homes, is up 51% over the last 4 years. This is an even larger increase than during the 2000s housing bubble when prices jumped by 49% from 2002 to 2006. The index tracking the 20 largest cities also jumped 6.5% year-over-year in June and reached a new record. When adjusted for inflation, home prices are ~100% higher than the 130-year average. The bubble keeps getting larger.

Shocking stat of the day: US net interest payments on national debt hit $861 BILLION over the last 12 months, according to the latest US Treasury report. Interest costs have nearly DOUBLED in just 2 years. This does not include $100 billion of Federal Reserve payments handed to banks as interest payments. Including those payments, effective interest costs over the last year hit a RECORD $962 billion. The US government needs lower interest rates more than anyone.

U.S. Dollar is being used in 48% of global payments, the highest level in over a decade. But BRICS…

US rent prices are skyrocketing: Median asking rent prices in the US hit $1,481/month in Q2 2024, an all-time high. Since 2019, median asking rents have spiked by a staggering 56%, according to the US Census Bureau. As a result, median asking rent now accounts for ~29% of the average monthly disposable personal income. By comparison, this share was significantly lower in 2019, at ~24%. In other words, rents have risen much faster than post-tax household income. Even renting a home is becoming a luxury.

BREAKING: The share of people who believe they will become unemployed in the next 4 months jumped to 4.4%, the highest on record. This is a significant surge from the 2.8% share seen in March 2024, according to the NY Fed job situation and outlook survey. At the same time, the share of workers who reported searching for a job in the last 4 weeks increased to 28.4%, the highest since the survey began in 2014. This was also up 9 percentage points from 19.4% recorded in July 2023. Further evidence the labor market is weakening.

BREAKING: The US Labor Department revises 12-month job growth down by a massive 818,000 jobs. In other words, the US economy actually created 818,000 LESS jobs than initially reported. Furthermore, the US economy LOST 192,000 jobs in Q3 2023 and added 344,000 jobs in Q4 2023, according to the BED survey released by BLS. On the other hand, nonfarm payrolls data showed that the US labor market added 663,000 and 577,000 new jobs in Q3 and Q4 2023. This is a jaw dropping 1,088,000 difference in job count over just two quarters. What is happening here?

Someone just shilled me this meme coin: - 34 trillion supply - No supply cap - 1 node - 25% of supply minted in the last 6 months - 1% of holders own 30% - Backed by the U.S. government

BREAKING: US new bankruptcy filings hit 6,276 in Q2 2024, the highest level since Q2 2017. The number of companies declaring bankruptcy has DOUBLED in just 2 years. Chapter 7 filings, also known as liquidation bankruptcies, reached a whopping 3,151 in Q2, the most since the 2020 Pandemic. Chapter 11 cases hit 2,462 last quarter, exceeding every other quarter over the last 10 years. Furthermore, Chapter 13 and other bankruptcies rose to 469 and 194, respectively. Bankruptcies have been rising at a pace seen during major economic downturns. Is a soft landing still attainable?

BREAKING: Commercial property foreclosures hit $20.6 billion in Q2 2024, the highest since Q3 2015. Lender portfolios of foreclosed commercial properties increased by 13% last quarter, according to MSCI data. Since 2020, foreclosures have more than DOUBLED rising at their fastest pace since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Many lenders hoped that the commercial real estate (CRE) sector would recover and were reluctant to foreclose properties until recently. Meanwhile, there is still over $6 TRILLION in CRE debt in the US with 50% of this debt held by banks. Small banks, the same banks that almost collapsed in the regional bank crisis, hold 70% of these loans. Is another bank crisis brewing?

What is happening here? US job numbers have been revised lower by 778,000 jobs since February 2022, according to BlackRock. This year alone, non-farm payrolls were revised down by 279,000 from January to June. Furthermore, the US economy LOST 192,000 jobs in Q3 2023 and added 344,000 jobs in Q4 2023, according to the BED survey released by BLS. On the other hand, nonfarm payrolls data showed that the US labor market added 663,000 and 577,000 new jobs in Q3 and Q4 2023. This is a jaw dropping 1,088,000 difference in job count over just two quarters. The labor market is weaker than the headlines make it seem.

How large is the Yen carry trade? On Monday, global markets experienced significant losses due to growing fears that the Yen carry trade is unwinding. According to Deutsche Bank, the Yen carry trade amounts to a whopping $20 trillion, or 505% of Japanese GDP based on Japan’s government balance sheet assets and liabilities mix. Other estimates that use Japanese banks’ foreign lending data from the Bank of International Settlements show that it is ~$1 trillion. Another proxy is Japanese investors’ net international investment which size has grown to $3.4 trillion (487 trillion yen) in Q1 2024, or by 35% since 2020. The Yen carry trade is massive.

This chart is wild, Canadians are drowning in taxes. The average Canadian family now spends ~$47,000 per year on taxes and ~$13,000 per year on food, That's 3.6 TIMES more on taxes than food. The average Canadian family also now spends ~$24,000 per year on shelter. In other words, the average Canadian family now spends DOUBLE their annual shelter costs on taxes. Since 2010, the average annual tax bill for a Canadian family is up a whopping ~57%. Truly concerning numbers.

BREAKING: Japan's stock market, the Nikkei 225, is currently set to post its largest 2-day drop in history. This is an even larger drop than the Black Monday crash of 1987, per Zerohedge. Now, South Korea has halted ALL sell orders as markets crash. Panic selling has arrived.

BREAKING: Microsoft stock, $MSFT, crashes over 8% after reporting Q2 2024 earnings. The stock has now erased $260 BILLION worth of market cap during after hours trade. This comes even as Microsoft beat expectations on both revenue and EPS. Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $64.7 billion and EPS of $2.95. However, Microsoft's cloud revenue narrowly missed expectations. More pain for big tech.

BREAKING: Total US Federal debt has officially hit $35 trillion for the first time in history. Since 2020, the US has now added ~$12 TRILLION in Federal debt. In other words, the US has added an average of ~$280 BILLION of Federal debt EVERY MONTH since January 2020. This means that the US now has ~$105,000 in Federal debt for every person living in the country. All while deficit spending as a percentage of GDP is currently at World War 2 levels. How can this possibly end well?