Hilary Till

LAUNCH OF THE JULY 2026 ISSUE OF THE COMMODITY INSIGHTS DIGEST (CID, ISSN 2996-654X) The July 2026 isue is available here: bayes-cid.com/pdf/newsletter…. The issue includes the following articles: (a) "What Do Commodity Futures Tell Us About the Global Economy?" by Romulo Alves, Yifan M., and Marta Szymanowska; (b) "Volatility Trading with the Quadratic Normal Model in the Oil Options Market" by Ilia Bouchouev, Brett Johnson, and Wu-Yen Sun; (c) "Uncovering the Hidden Drivers of Commodities" by Dr. Mark Shore. An additional published article and presentations by CID Editorial Board members and contributors include the following: (a) "Flexibility as an Asset in Maritime Energy Markets" and "Maritime Energy Dispatch under Market Volatility and Geopolitical Risk: A Multistage Stochastic Optimization Framework" by Jenny Considine; and (b) "Momentum Trading and Managed Money Positioning in Energy: Relationships and Practical Applications" by Wu-Yen Sun. *** The Commodity Insights Digest is an academic publication, which is sponsored by Bayes Business School, City St George’s, University of London (U.K.). In addition, the digest is published in association with Chicago-based Premia Research LLC. The CID’s co-editors are Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes and Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow Hilary Till. Complimentary subscriptions to the CID are currently available at: bayes-cid.com/subscribe. [The illustration for the July 2026 issue of the CID is a generated image, which is based on a vintage railway travel poster in the style of the British artist Norman Wilkinson (1878-1971). Such posters used the characteristic "flat style" or Art Deco approach prevalent in British railway advertising from the 1920s to the 1940s, known for using simple shapes, solid colors, and minimal detail to be easily readable from a distance; they depicted scenic locations in the U.K. to encourage tourism.] #CommodityFutures #Volatility #Oil #WTI #Macroeconomy #Options #PredictionMarkets #Inflation #LNG #Optimization #Shipping

Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the financial sector. BWC Member @HTill42884 moderated a discussion at @LSEnews that featured academic and industry executives on how AI and machine learning are reshaping finance, from risk management to the broader evolution of markets. As a contributor to BWC's AI Working Group, Till continues to provide valuable insights on the opportunities and challenges shaping the future of AI in finance. Explore more of BWC’s AI-related work and contributions from Till: brettonwoods.org/artificial-int…

“CONSERVING OUR PAST” On June 17th, I was absolutely delighted to attend a talk by Dr. Mark Lewis, Curator Officer, The National Roman Legion Museum, Caerleon (U.K.), at the Cheptow Society (Wales) meeting. Dr. Lewis is pictured in the left-hand photo below. Dr. Lewis discussed in detail the heroic, scientifically-informed efforts in preserving artifacts from the distant past, including from Roman-era Britain.

COMMODITY INVESTING & TRADING On June 16th, Hilary Till of Chicago-based Premia chaired an invited session on Commodity Investing & Trading at the Commodity and Energy Markets Association (CEMA) Conference, held at ESSEC Business School in Paris (Cergy). We extend our sincere thanks to our co-presenters, Wu-Yen Sun (pictured left) and Dr. Jenny Considine (pictured right). Hilary Till appears in the center of the photograph at the after-event dinner. (Till is also an Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow at Bayes Business School, City St George’s, University of London, U.K.). *** [At the CEMA conference, Wu-Yen (Jonathan) Sun presented on “Momentum Trading and Managed Money Positioning in Energy”; Dr. Considine discussed “Maritime Energy Dispatch under Market Volatility and Geopolitical Risk: A Multistage Stochastic Optimization Framework”; and Till covered why futures contacts succeed or fail.] Conference website: lnkd.in/gS9sSeUx Sun presentation: lnkd.in/gJgqZ_yf Till presentation: lnkd.in/guH2UdxG Considine presentation: lnkd.in/gKgBm-Vh #Commodities

BRETTON WOODS COMMITTEE (BWC) AI WORKING GROUP As a member of the BWC's Al Working Group, I am delighted to note the launch of the latest BWC position paper on Generative Al in finance: brettonwoods.org/generative-ai-…. #GenerativeAl #AI #RiskManagement

For Financial Risk Managers, Is AI a New Kind of Risk? On Tuesday night in London, I had the pleasure of moderating an event at the LSE Data Science Institute (DSI), co-hosted with the International Association for Quantitative Finance IAQF: lnkd.in/gJdsaZcP. During the panel, James Hamp, LSE DSI Visiting Fellow, posed the intriguing question of whether AI represents a new kind of risk for financial risk managers. Here was my response at the event: With one caveat, I would argue that this is an old problem with a new delivery mechanism. I have written a number of papers on why risk management has failed in practice. This includes case studies on Amaranth, BMO, BP, the PFG fraud. None of those needed a language model. Funds have always converged on the same trades through shared narratives, common counterparties, and borrowed money piled onto the same bet across many firms. What AI changes is efficiency. When many participants query the same models with similar prompts, they may very well receive correlated outputs that feel like independent research but are not. The funding side is the same story. Banks pulling lines and selling the same collateral at once is a leverage and counterparty concentration problem. AI can compress the timeline from stress to fire sale, but speed is a “volume knob” on an existing failure. So the fix is not, in the main, AI specific. It is the usual dull stuff: position limits, genuine diversification of approach, including some desks deliberately not relying on the dominant model, stress tests that ask what happens if everyone using similar signals exits together, and diversified funding sources. Now here is a nuance. The kind of potential crowding that AI could introduce would likely be harder to detect, since the correlation resides in model weights and prompt similarity rather than in a visible shared position. *** The event was generously sponsored by @RavenPack | Bigdata.com. #AI #LLM #QuantitativeFinance #RiskManagement

AT LSE: LEADING VOICES IN FINANCE, MATHEMATICS, AND AI It was a wonderful evening at the London School of Economics and Political Science (@LSEnews), where the International Association for Quantitative Finance (IAQF) and the LSE Data Science Institute brought together leading voices in finance, mathematics, and AI for a panel on AI/ML in Finance: lnkd.in/eAwEgAiQ. Álvaro Cartea of the Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance at the University of Oxford, Peter Hafez of @RavenPack | @bigdatadotcom, and Luitgard Veraart of the LSE Department of Mathematics each presented original research. They were joined by panelist James Hamp of Citi for a wide-ranging discussion on where data, models, and markets now intersect. Premia’s Hilary Till had the pleasure of moderating alongside this group, and we are grateful to RavenPack | Bigdata.com for sponsoring the evening. 📸 Left to right: Luitgard Veraart, Álvaro Cartea, Hilary Till, James Hamp, and Peter Hafez. [Photo by Johannes Ruf (of the LSE DSI and the LSE Department of Mathematics), who chaired the event.] For information on the IAQF, one may visit: iaqf.org. For information on the LSE DSI, one may visit: lse.ac.uk/dsi.

“WHY MOST TRADERS MISREAD TRENDS” As an Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow at @BayesBSchool, @CityStGeorges, @LondonU (U.K.), I was delighted to attend tonight’s guest lecture at Bayes, which featured Dubai-based @AvramisDespotis on “Why Most Traders Misread Trends”: lnkd.in/gCqc9aJs. The lecture was part of the FinTech.Lab series and “FinTech: Technologies and Disruptions” course at Bayes Business School.

COMMODITY INVESTING & TRADING It was an honor to present at today’s afternoon session of the Commodity & Energy Markets Association (CEMA) conference in Cergy (Paris): lnkd.in/guH2UdxG. (Left-hand photo). I was delighted to be joined by Dr. Jenny Considine (Top right-hand photo), who presented on “LNG: Shipping Optimizations under Market Volatility and Operational Constraints”; and Wu-Yen Sun (Bottom right-hand photo), who presented on “Momentum Trading and Managed Money Positioning in Energy”. (Sun’s paper was co-authored with Ilia Bouchouev and Bassam Fattouh.) Separately, thank you to Jenny Considine and Wu-Yen (Jonathan) Sun for their contributions to the Commodity Insights Digest (CID, ISSN 2996-654X). #Commodities

JUNE EVENTS AT THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS' DATA SCIENCE INSTITUTE See the LSE DSI's webpage at: lse.ac.uk/dsi/events

RESOURCE NATIONALISM I was delighted to meet with Rogan Quinn of Rhodium Group this afternoon. Quinn is an expert on China macro, global supply chains, and commodities. He will be contributing a Practitioners Insights article on resource nationalism to a forthcoming edition of Bayes Business School’s Commodity Insights Digest (CID, lnkd.in/gPpZdv89.) #China #GlobalMacro #ResourceNationalism #SupplyChains #Commodities

LAUNCH OF THE JUNE 2026 ISSUE OF THE COMMODITY INSIGHTS DIGEST (CID, ISSN 2996-654X) The June 2026 issue includes the following articles: (a) "Impact Investing in Commodity Futures" by Mascia Bedendo, Adrian Fernandez-Perez, Ana-Maria Fuertes, and Joelle Miffre; (b) "The Hidden Water Constraint in AI Infrastructure" by Brandon N. Owens and Morgan Bazilian; (c) "Sustainability in Commodity Markets" by Guillaume Coqueret, Bertrand Tavin, and Yuxin ZHOU; (d) "Rethinking How U.S. Mineral Supply Chains Are Financed: Why Royalty Models Are Gaining Ground" by Scott A. Pollan; (e) "China, Commodities, and Chokepoints: Market Signals in an Age of Geopolitical Disruption" by Hilary Till; and (f) "Interview with a Practitioner Expert in the Commodity Industry: Colin Waugh". Additional published articles and a presentation by CID Editorial Board members include the following: (a) "Energy Politics Update — Markets Adapt, Buffers Shrink, and Hormuz Goes Dark" by Jenny Considine; (b) "Exposure Management vs. Defined Outcomes" by Jodie M. Gunzberg, CFA; and (c) "Betting on the Future: Determinants of Success and Failure in Futures Contracts". *** The June 2026 issue is available here: linkedin.com/pulse/commodit…. *** The Commodity Insights Digest is an academic publication, which is sponsored by Bayes Business School, City St George’s, University of London (U.K.). In addition, the digest is published in association with Chicago-based Premia Research LLC. The CID’s co-editors are Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes and Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow Hilary Till. Complimentary subscriptions to the CID are currently available here: bayes-cid.com/subscribe. [The illustration for the June 2026 issue of the CID is a generated image, which is based on a vintage railway travel poster in the style of the British artist Norman Wilkinson (1878-1971). The image depicts a view across the Firth of Clyde, featuring mountains in the background and sailing yachts on the river estuary. Wilkinson's work is known for its bold lines and ability to capture the essence of a landscape, a technique he developed for poster design.] #CommodityFutures #ImpactInvesting #Water #AI #Infrastructure #Hyperscalers #CriticalMinerals #SustainableFinance #Diversification

AI/ML EVENT AT THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS The International Association for Quantitative Finance (IAQF), in collaboration with the LSE Data Science Institute (LSE DSI) at the London School of Economics and Political Science ( @LSEnews ), is pleased to co-host this exclusive event on AI/ML in Finance. We invite you to an evening of compelling presentations and lively discussions exploring how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are reshaping financial markets. Sponsored by: Bigdata.com and @RavenPack. Registration is here: lnkd.in/geS9mnWj. Confirmed speakers and panelists (alphabetically listed): Álvaro Cartea, Professor of Mathematical Finance and Director, Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance, University of Oxford (UK) Peter Hafez, Chief Data Scientist, RavenPack | Bigdata.com (Spain) James Hamp, Head of Data Strategy & Analytics for Foreign Exchange, Citi and LSE DSI Visiting Fellow (UK) Petter Kolm, Professor, NYU Courant Institute School of Mathematics, Computing, and Data Science (USA) Luitgard Veraart, Professor, Department of Mathematics, LSE (UK) Chair: Johannes Ruf, Professor, Department of Mathematics, and Deputy Director, Data Science Institute, LSE (UK) Moderator: Hilary Till, Principal, Premia Research LLC and Member, @BrettonWoodsCom AI Working Group (USA) Further information on the LSE DSI website is here: lnkd.in/gJdsaZcP. #AI #ML #QuantitativeFinance

LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS (LSE) DATA INSTITUTE’S UPCOMING LECTURES Read the LSE DSI’s newsletter here: lnkd.in/erBES5qb Sign up to the monthly DSI newsletter here: lnkd.in/eZcnFvPG