HY Credit Geez

New Year... first tweet... Building a reading list specifically for aspiring credit analysts and credit investors. Some suggestions below, any thoughts on what's missing? 🙏 1/4

Nibbled at a little gold today. Probably early, but for lt portfolio holding: think you are meant to buy market-wide, “sell what you can”, degross sell offs. Iran situation reinforces lt bull case if anything.

@CorneliaLake 9 including mine

Where do we open tomorrow

@eudebates @vonderleyen @kajakallas @Statsmin @EvikaSilina what. is. this.

⚡️ FEMALE POWER AT EUCO ⚡️ 🇪🇺 From Brussels: Europe’s leadership shows its strength — and its diversity. @vonderleyen, @kajakallas, @Statsmin Mette Frederiksen & @EvikaSilina — a powerful moment of leadership, unity and vision. 👉 Experience, determination and perspective shaping Europe’s future. 👉 Strength, style and leadership — all in one frame. Europe is not just evolving — it’s being led. #eudebates #EU #EUCO #WomenInPolitics #Leadership #Europe #VonDerLeyen #Kallas #Frederiksen #Silina #Brussels #Power

@iBladesi @mb_ghalibaf

@mb_ghalibaf Mr. Ghalibaf, the lion's share of the government financing is done on the short end these days. Those are bills and notes. Technically they are all bonds. But saying Treasury bonds implies 20+yr which is a very small part of issuance.

Alongside military bases, those financial entities that finance the US military budget are legitimate targets. US treasury bonds are soaked in Iranians' blood. Purchase them, and you purchase a strike on your HQ and assets. We monitor your portfolios. This is your final notice.

The scale and consequences of the failure of European statecraft over the last 20 years are coming into view. This is not going to end well for Europe. We are now reliant on a swift AND favourable resolution to the Iran War to escape with 'just' a temporary economic downturn. Given the realistic course of events, this feels increasingly like having what remains of your chips on red 13 as the roulette wheel spins and the ball might land in any of the other 37 pockets. It is worth taking a (very broad) tour of the events of the last decade and a half to see what that failure has involved, and then a quick look at the likely consequences. First, the EU, despite knowing where it would lead, allowed a powerful and fanatical faction of the foreign policy establishment in Washington, DC to drive the car on the West's Ukraine policy, and thus Europe's relations with Russia. Recall that both France and Germany were against George W Bush's decision to announce in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia would become members of NATO. The US itself knew that this would be a disaster. In the 2019 Wikileaks cache, it was revealed that William J Burns, then Director of the CIA, had written in a 2008 dispatch when he was ambassador to Russia titled "Nyet Means Nyet: Russia's NATO Enlargement Redlines." In it, he said that everybody he had spoken to in Russia, from "knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin" to "Putin's sharpest liberal critics" warned that Ukrainian NATO entry was considered the "brightest of all red lines" for Moscow. Angela Merkel knew it, too. She said that the Kremlin would view Ukrainian acsession as 'a declaration of war.' Yet Europe went along with the scheme, and continued to refuse the numerous off-ramps along the war -- as recently as 2021, when Russia made a push to have the Minsk II agreement enforced. Europe at this time had significant leverage over both Ukraine (which was reliant on the EU economically) and Russia (as we have seen, through its sanctions regime on Russia since 2022). That was surely enough for a strategically decisive EU to have forced a solution. But it did not. Instead, it allowed a war to erupt between the provider of its energy (and thus the underpinnings of its economy) and (by proxy) the guarantor of its security in Europe's own backyard. This passivity and sense of entitlement has had dire economic consequences for Europe, as is now well accepted, given the ongoing slow-motion deindustrialisation of Europe. But it has also had strategic consequences, with Europe now facing open conflict on its Eastern Approaches, and far greater reliance on both the United States and Qatar and broader Gulf region for its energy security, and much greater reliance on the US for its security. Secondly, the coup de gras: the Gulf has itself erupted in war (obviously a shock to the geniuses in Europe's capitals, the Gulf being such a stable region of the world), driven at least in part by the internal political pathologies of the United States. This threatens Europe with a catastrophic economic shock, while the US uses its leverage (of which Europe gave it much more) to get involved against Europe's own interests. Yet here again, Europe knew the likely consequences of the US policy, and yet went along with it. Even when Donald Trump 1.0 got rid of the JCPOA, Europe wanted to stick to it. But they couldn't because the EU, despite its huge Single Market and capacity to set regulations even beyond its borders, did not have ANY means to resist US secondary sanctions. China had developed CIPS as an alternative to SWIFT. Even Russia developed MIR. Hell, I think even the Serbs have their own version. The EU? Britain? Nope and nope. If the Iran War ended tomorrow and energy was swiftly restored, it is true that this might be a bump in the road. But there is no sign that this will be a short war -- or if it is, there is no sign that a resolution will be favourable for the West -- and the economic consequences are coming into view. Massively higher inflation, large-scale job losses, higher food prices, energy rationing, depression. The human toll in Europe will be monstrous if this is a long war. A serious-minded EU would be straining ever sinew and using all its diplomatic cachet and economic leverage to mediate an end to the conflict. Yet all we get is some weird condemnations of Iran (for fighting dirty, or something) and a refusal to get involved on the US side, even as US President Donald Trump starts applying the leverage for them to do so. Let us apply a little British understatement: these people will not be viewed kindly when the history is written. Monstrously hubristic, conceited, self-satisfied, unbearably pious, strategically purblind, feckless, adolescent in their passions and conceit. These fools spent much, much more time busying themselves with forcing Apple to put USB-C slots on their phones, forcing social media companies to police speech, and worrying about LGBTQ+ rights in Budapest than they did on protecting Europe's economy and strategic position. Shameful. Disgraceful. Grossly malfeasant.

@philbaggers @ZeGoodTrader @business @grok If you ever want a glimpse of the zombie apocalypse it’s a must. Fortunately it’s a permanent attraction as the mayor hasn’t been able to tie back the heroin/crack/crime wave to a discernible rise in CO2 emissions.

@HYcorps @ZeGoodTrader @business @grok My Google Maps surprisingly light of pins in that neighbourhood

Outgoing Mayor Anne Hidalgo championed a car-free agenda, leaving Paris greener, cleaner and better for walking and biking. Take a journey through the city to see how it's changed. Read more: bloom.bg/4rPgL0N 📷️: Getty Images

@philbaggers @ZeGoodTrader @business @grok Delightful tbf, just head to Chateau D’Eau for a side of crack addict afterwards

@HYcorps @ZeGoodTrader @business @grok Mais les patisseries mon ami!

@ZeGoodTrader @business @grok Another great G-M Amnesia test. @business I lived there for 3 years. The mayor was a disaster. The city is a third world hell hole. The traffic is one of the worst parts. ✌🏻

Gosh, how can you be so wrong about the city !? Do you even live there to write such a terrible article? @grok can you confirm the travel time explosion in Paris, the level of congestion, how traffic has only been moved away to the periphery? Can you confirm how the biggest part of pollution reduction is LARGELY explained by car modernity (a modern Hybrid 2026 emits 90% less than a 2000 diesel!) and how reducing the speed from 70 to 50km/h or from 50 to 30km/h in town isn’t at all an obvious catalyst for lower pollution?

Bank of England with GILTS traders

@EricJorgenson @naval

My 3.5-hour conversation with @naval. Fresh takes on every idea from The Almanack of Naval: happiness, judgment, knowledge, leverage. Now in one episode, available on Spotify, Youtube, etc.

Really should go to sleep. But then what if someone tweets about another photonics supply chain nanocap and I miss out on the free money machine?

Heard on the floor: “C’MONNN THE HOUTHIS” Sigh..

@ragingbullcap @NickCortellucci I need to bait you into posting about stocks I also own more 🤣 . $CRON and $OGI … probs a sell here right?

@NickCortellucci 🤷‍♂️

$DBO.TO Some thoughts on why I believe this is extremely silly below $.70/share. DBOX ended CY 2025 with $16m or ~$0.07/share in cash, very little of which is needed to run the business. That balance should be higher now, so you're paying less than $0.62/share today for the enterprise Using even TTM FCF of ~$12m, that's an 11x FCF multiple for a growing royalty biz. FCF is going way higher given 1) system growth and 2) a box office that is tracking significantly higher than 2025 already. On the box office piece of the equation, the market has picked up on this in other names in the sector (IMAX, CNK), but DBOX investors appear to be struggling to understand this. The are a variety of free places to track this (e.g. Box Office Mojo, The Numbers, updates from the operators). Q1 26 is already tracking slightly ahead of last year, which is a big deal because industry estimates have the rest of the year comping well ahead as there is an abundance of tentpole films being released from here until year-end. That starts with Project Hail Mary (next week) and Mario (April 1). "The Numbers" estimates $9.9B for the 2026 box office vs. $8.7B last year (~+14%). So at a minimum, TTM royalties of $13.7m should increase to $15.6m over the NTM (basically all margin). But that understates the likely result for a couple reasons. 1. Over-indexing. PLF's have been capturing share so will grow faster than the box office. Moreover, DBOX will benefit from the film slate this year, as the format favors family and action films (which will dominate in 26): Mario, Hoopers, Toy Story, Avengers, etc. Notably, as I flagged in a prior tweet, Avengers is expected to be the largest film this year and it does not have an IMAX window because Dune secured it, meaning DBOX should hugely overindex for this blockbuster. 2. System growth. Screens have grown by ~13% over LTM and given what we know (deferred revenue lift, proposed financing structures, system sale revenues last Q, commentary on backlog, etc.), I suspect there's at least another 10% growth from here through year-end. So we have box office expected to grow +14% + general over-indexing + the right content slate for the format + an average system count 10-20% higher than the comp period. That's likely good for $18m of royalties for the calendar year. Even haircutting 2025 System sale revenues by a little, that's >$55m of NTM revenue, which should translate to ~$15m of FCF. Assuming most of that piles up on the balance sheet, we exit with ~$.12/share of cash, implying $.57/share for the enterprise by year-end or 8x TTM FCF. DD yield for a high margin royalty biz with limited competition risk, leverage over all participants in the value chain (exhibitors and studios benefit hugely from PLFs), and vast remaining whitespace is silly. My personal view is that mgmt should initiate a capital return policy in the near-term, ideally buybacks but a dividend would also suffice. I get the flexibility of having cash, but pro forma cash of nearly $30m by year-end would clearly be overcapitalized even with the financing prospects, and the cash is a major drag on the type of ROE that makes these business models so attractive. I would be surprised if we don't see some movement on this front during the year. DYODD.

@origoinvest @HayekAndKeynes Agree with all that. And re the press… sensationalist, click bait, lacking nuance… but then of course that shouldn’t surprise anyone! For credit guys it’s been a brilliant Gell-Man Amnesia exercise - just remember the rest of it is nonsense too!

I agree with you the product should arguably have never made it to retail and it is a liquidity & reflexivity issue (within interval funds and similar structures). Through the lifecycle and in traditional closed-end fund formats where there is no duration mismatch it is hard to lose money (yes annualised - can eyeball 20-25% cumulative in the sensitivities which would roughly equate 2007-10 lev loan defaults). There will be pockets of stress (which I welcome as a DD guy) but the media narrative seems to lack any semblance of nuance (IG/non-IG, see-through LTV on Bank NAV-loans, addressable market for real forced selling triggers). If I were talking my book I would add fuel to the fire.

To illustrate @HayekAndKeynes point here I run some illustrative maths on a credit fund assuming: 1) Origination at 8% coupon all-in (5% cash / 3% PIK) 1) 8% default rate 2 years in 2) 3Y recovery time frame at 25c On a gross unlevered basis it is VERY HARD to return <1x MOIC if you are clipping ~8% on the performing book. Need to be a next level terrible underwriter (does exist). Obviously fund leverage can magnify things here and that starts becoming dilutive once you start hitting the ~14% default rate mark all else being equal. At >22% default rates is where things start to get dicey. This is within a closed-end fund structure (which is where this asset class should remain, not dealing with redemption and MTM issues). Takeaway is that yes some funds will produce sub-par returns on L2/3/4Y vintages but ultimately the dispersion within credit is lower vs. PE/VC and we are still far from talking about complete wipeouts here.

@CasinoCapital @s8mb jk me too, been spreading the good word ⬇️🫡

@HYcorps @s8mb Sounds a nightmare, glad I only buy shitcos in my taxable account!

There is finally a “no dividend S&P 500” ETF - something I’ve looked for for a long time. If an equivalent became available in Britain, we could avoid the 35.75–39.35% dividend tax rates and pay the 24% Capital Gains Tax rate instead. Huge savings! roundhillinvestments.com/etf/xdiv/

@CasinoCapital @s8mb You know the accumulating ETFs… you meant to calculate what the divi would have been and pay tax on it? Asking for a friend

@s8mb Related - Given the 🇬🇧 divi tax rates versus CGT tax rates, it's kinda ridiculous how many FTSE 100 companies pay huge dividends rather than buying back shares...I actively avoid them in my taxable account because of this.

yep

@StocksEddie No, no, noooo… seeing some terrible takes in the comments. Time for a rethink: invest exclusively in obscure, Canadian microcaps. Preferably unprofitable, and ideally on the venture exchange. Remember to size large or it doesn’t count. This IS financial advice. You’re welcome.

Be honest with me. I’m 23 with £22k invested with a goal to reach £50k invested by 25 and 100k by 28. For a primarily ETF investor, are these goals achievable? Or am I too far behind?

@ragingbullcap “Anyone want to talk me down from the ledge?” Dylan laughing as he drags me over it

@HYcorps DBOX is laughable here. Apparently people don’t realize they can track the box office in near real time.

$DBO.TO and $LIB.V both getting down to levels where I’m tempted to abandon my usual conservative position sizing. Anyone want to talk me off the ledge?