Hadi

Months ago, $110 oil would have eased every budgetary problem in Iraq Today, it barely matters With Hormuz shut & exports down more than 90%, expensive oil is yielding near-zero income, leaving cash reserves that last only until August Analysis on @TheTerminal

The US Department of Energy just mapped every data center in America. This is what the AI power grid looks like. The dots are data centers. Yellow = operating. Orange = under construction. White = planned. The lines are high-voltage transmission 735kV, 500kV, 345kV the arteries that move electrons from generators to compute loads. Look at the density along the East Coast, Northern Virginia to the Carolinas. Then look at Texas. Then Northern California. The largest circles on this map represent facilities demanding over 5,000 MW of power. Single campuses pulling more electricity than mid-sized cities. Northern Virginia is so dense the dots overlap. Data centers cluster on transmission corridors. Not because land is cheap because power is available. When the line is full, the next data center goes somewhere else. The grid is the bottleneck. Every orange dot is a power purchase agreement being negotiated right now. Every white dot is a utility commission filing, a gas plant approval, a pipeline capacity booking. The $66.8 bn NextEra-Dominion deal, Meta's 10 new gas plants in Louisiana, the Alaska LNG FID push they all trace back to maps that look like this. AI infrastructure is built in substations, on transmission corridors, and at the end of gas pipelines. Link in the comments, to see my stocks 👇

"Bob Wilt, CEO of Saudi Arabian state-controlled mining company Maaden, dispatched executives to Red Sea ports and, within 2 weeks, lined up rail & truck operators to move fertilizer across the kingdom...Maaden will have caught up on its export backlog by the end of May" wsj.com/world/middle-e…

Bloomberg: “The world has burned through oilinventories at a record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf… The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean that the risk of even more extreme price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer, leaving governments and industries with fewer options to cushion the impact of the loss of more than a billion barrels of supply, two months into the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.” #economy #oil #markets #middleeastwar

This is actually pretty big and should be a massive boost towards establishing the RMB as a major reserve currency. In simple terms, when you allow foreign investors to trade Chinese government bond futures, you're letting them buy insurance on their Chinese bond holdings (technically speaking it enables hedging of bonds' duration risk by shorting the futures). Until now, buying Chinese sovereign debt was like purchasing property abroad in a country where insurance simply wasn't available - most institutions either skipped it or took a position small enough to write off. The insurance now exists, so they can finally size to conviction. It should not only increase the demand for China's sovereign debt but also increase the number of countries borrowing money in yuan (as some EU countries have already started doing: gov.si/en/news/2026-0…), all contributing to expanding the yuan's reserve currency role.

You know Asia is truly short of crude oil when Japanese television covers the arrival of a single oil tanker from America as a major news story

🇸🇦 Springtime in Al-Muhmal Desert, Saudi Arabia

🌎 The warming El Nino weather phenomenon, which pushed global temperatures to record highs the last time around, is expected back in the middle of this year, the UN says. ➡️ u.afp.com/Sawu

Control of Sudan is now divided between its army, which holds Khartoum and the east, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in the west.  The risks of long-term partition and spillover are continuing to grow: crisisgroup.org/brf/africa/sud…

Lufthansa cuts 20,000 flights to save fuel as prices soar ft.trib.al/HXxGMgs

The oil market will lose at least 1bn barrels of crude and refined products due to the war in the Middle East, even if the conflict ends tomorrow, the head of the world’s biggest independent oil trader has warned. ft.trib.al/roK3ruX

La colline de Miharashi recouverte de fleurs bleues Némophila au Hitachi Seaside Park 🪻 Situé dans la préfecture d’Ibaraki à seulement 1h30 en train de Tokyo, ce parc de 215 hectares est l’un des plus grands espaces floraux du Japon #Japon

Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson called on US authorities to prepare a back-up plan to avert a potential collapse in demand for Treasuries. Tune into Wall Street Week Fridays at 6pm ET bloom.bg/3EMZYZX

#BREAKING Turkish, Somali media reporting State Petroleum Corp. (TPAO) with major stakes in Somalia offshore oil and gas project will establish oil refinery in Mogadishu to refine Somali crude to service markets in East Africa and beyond. The Iran War has exposed vulnerability of African economies to reliance on Gulf oil and gas. Improved African refining capability viewed as game changing.

Dedollarization continues apace: China's alternative to SWIFT, the US-dominated payment messaging system, is CIPS. CIPS is now processing more than 1 trillion yuan & 40,000+ transactions per day. 5000+ financial institutions across 190 countries & regions are connected to CIPS.

CNN reports the oil crisis is becoming “an everything crisis” with petrochemical shortages spreading to consumer goods (plastics, rubber, polyester). Asia, which accounts for more than 50% of global manufacturing, is hardest hit. J.P. Morgan warns supply constraints will worsen in April as pre-war crude deliveries are exhausted. ~2,000 vessels and 20,000 crew remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.

singapore shipping fuel market going off the chart—this is shipping fuel shortage live. at that price, shippers will defer orders, park their ships and either wait till the war is over or go out of business.

What is made out of a barrel of oil 🛢

Before the conflict: Saudi exported ~7.2 million b/d of crude at ~$67/bbl Annualized = $176 billion a year After the conflict: Saudi exporting ~4.8 million b/d of crude at ~$130/bbl Annualized = $227 billion a year

Saudi Arabia has increased its official selling price (OSP) to a record high. The state-owned Saudi oil giant told refineries in Asian it would charge a premium of $19.5 a barrel over the regional benchmark for sales of its flagship Arab Light. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…