Adam

@NancyCoye @MichaelAArouet @terrytaillard comparing apples and oranges, to say Nancy's husband outperforms Buffet, is like saying a macro hedgefund outperforms a bond portfolio

@Happy33367 @MichaelAArouet @terrytaillard With a little bit of help from Nancy.

Honestly, how is someone investing just as a side hustle able to continuously beat both the S&P 500 and Warren Buffett? What's the secret sauce?

We followed the money. Last week, a handful of bankers and hedge funds met, decided to hold Washington's Iran war policy hostage, then launched a campaign. Name names?

I've stopped reading Gulf war headlines. Here's what I track instead. We run an India-focused equity fund. 85% of India's crude comes from imports. Half of that normally passes through Hormuz. So yes — this crisis is personal. But the information environment right now is garbage. Trump says the war ends tomorrow. Iran says Hormuz is shut forever. One analyst says $150 oil, another says $60. You can't build a portfolio view on this. So I've narrowed it down to 4 signals. These are priced by people with real money on the line. They don't lie. 1. Ship insurance premiums through Hormuz This is the single best signal. Lloyd's underwriters have billions at stake on every pricing call. Before the war, insuring a tanker through Hormuz cost 0.25% of the ship's value. Today it's 3.5–10% — and almost nobody is buying. A $100M tanker that cost $250K to insure now costs up to $10M. When this drops below 2%, the people with the most to lose are telling you it's getting safer. No press conference can replicate that. 2. How many ships are actually crossing Every ship carries a GPS tracker (AIS). You can count exactly how many cross Hormuz each day. Before: 100+. Now: 8. That's a 92% collapse. You can't spin a ship being somewhere it isn't. Iran is letting some Chinese and Indian ships through, but it's a trickle. When this number crosses 30–40, trade is resuming. You can track this free on the WTO Hormuz Trade Tracker. 3. Paper oil vs real oil This one most people miss entirely. Brent crude (the headline price) is at $112. But Dubai physical — what Asian buyers actually pay for delivered oil — is at $126. That's a $14 gap. It exists because Trump's comments keep pushing paper prices down. Traders call it jawboning. But the refiners buying cargo aren't getting any discount. If you're looking at Brent to assess India's oil bill, you're looking at the wrong number. 4. The mid-April cliff Multiple emergency measures expire around the same time. The 400 million barrel SPR release runs dry ~April 15. The US waiver letting India buy Russian crude expires. Formosa Plastics has declared force majeure from April 1. Right now these stopgaps are keeping the supply gap at ~5 mb/d. Without them, BCA Research estimates it doubles to 10 mb/d — the largest crude disruption ever. If Hormuz doesn't reopen by mid-April, we're in uncharted territory. Bottom line: track the insurance premium, the ship count, the paper-physical spread, and the April timeline. Everything else is noise.

@HBSTRADING97 @0xmitsurii If you invest your money with a fund, you don't want them betting their entire money on one thesis, that is very time sensitive

@Happy33367 @0xmitsurii But, that didn't happen. As it was, the primary dealers tried to screw him anyway. If it was all in the up and up, they would have properly paid out MONTHS prior.

The man who saw the 2008 crash before everyone else.

@needanespresso @boriquagato @MichaelAArouet its because buffet doesnt use optiosn and Pelosi's husband does

@boriquagato @MichaelAArouet They’re all grifters. No one in Congress (or very few) actually wants to help the country.

@MichaelAArouet @terrytaillard Its because Pelosi's husband uses options and aggressively bullish on tech, Buffet prefers cash now companies so over full cycle lower returns. Buffet could get higher returns if he was happier with more risk

@terrytaillard Wouldn't that be both illegal and immoral?

IDF soldiers picking on a little Palestinian girl & taking her bicycle. I wonder why the world unanimously HATES Israel & Zionist Jews.

@ChrisYndo @joeroganhq actually what he was saying is, its not about which tax or revenue mix is used to fund it, most important is some form oftax revenue generated ie corp or sales etc

@joeroganhq “Let’s go to Bora Bora!” “We’re broke. How are we going to do that?” “No, you’re focused on the wrong thing. Palapas, margaritas, swimming alongside turtles, that’s what you should be focused on.” “But how?” “Mmm, palapa.”

"How are you getting the $700M to make the buses free?" "Through the raising of the state's corporate tax." "But [Gov. Hochul] said no." "The most important fact is that we fund it not the question of how we do it."

With my friend @jeremycorbyn, I've just delivered key medical aid to Cuba. This is part of the Nuestra America Convoy that’s bringing in huge amounts of aid as Trump tightens the cruel and illegal blockade of Cuba. Donate and learn about the #NuestraAmericaConvoy below.

Netanyahu in three frames: To Iranians, he speaks of “freedom”. To Americans, he warns of Iran's “nuclear threat". To his Zionist audience, he calls Iranians "Amaleks". Deception based on the geography of the audience!

Back in 1999, Buffett broke down why so few people ever build real wealth. He shows you’re carrying something worth about $500,000 right now. Bookmark this clip before it disappears.

“I don’t think he’s aging correctly” 💀

@elonmusk @DrewPavlou Ratio

Trump: "I think Pakistan and India are gonna live very NICELY together" Turns to Shehbaz Sharif: ‘Right?’ Look at Chatukar's big smile. He still thinks this Joker Trump can save him when Bharat goes for the DECISIVE one? Anyway, let both of them happy 'TILL THEN'!

Brian Glenn: President Zelenskyy, you look fabulous in that suit Zelenskyy: You are in the same suit. I changed, you did not.

🚨Exclusive: Pakistan Zindbabad 🇵🇰 #OperationBunyanulMarsoos

IDF could’ve bombed the water tank, instead they waited until people gathered then bombed everyone 😏 #Harvard #UniversityofTexas #ColumbiaUniversity #studentrevolution #StudentProtests

@Nigel_Farage Your a confused failed politician who knows nothing about the world. Right wing demagogue

Agreed.

@RichardBurgon The worlds five richest men are not British. Nothing to do with UK govt.

This is why I've long campaigned for a Wealth Tax. ⬆️ The world’s five richest men have doubled their wealth to £681 BILLION since 2020 ⬇️ While the wealth of the world’s poorest 60% – almost 5 billion people – has fallen Our system is rigged. It's time to tax the super-rich!