Reinier ter Hart 🏳️‍🌈🐟🕊️

President Trump is heading to China for the May 14-15 summit, and not from a position of strength. He is going at a moment when the United States is simultaneously bogged down in several foreign policy crises, facing rising domestic polarization, inflation risks, and growing strain on its military-industrial system. That is precisely why Beijing currently holds the stronger position. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has become almost an ideal scenario for China. Washington cannot drag this out any longer: ▪️ a blockade of the strait; ▪️ another sharp spike in oil prices; ▪️ a new inflation shock; ▪️ market turmoil ahead of the election cycle. Beijing, meanwhile, can afford to wait and negotiate. China wants to push the United States out of its role as global hegemon - but without triggering outright chaos. Beijing’s real strategy right now is not the sudden collapse of the United States, but the slow dismantling of American hegemony through exhaustion - through the accumulation of crises where America: ▪️ overstretches its resources; ▪️ loses control; ▪️ unnerves its allies; ▪️ is forced into negotiations; ▪️ increasingly appears not as the guarantor of order, but as an overloaded superpower. Against this backdrop, President Trump is effectively arriving to ask China to help stabilize a system the United States can no longer stabilize alone. In itself, that represents a major geopolitical victory for Beijing. What can China demand in return? First and foremost - technology. Beijing’s main priority is access to advanced semiconductors, AI, and high-tech components. China understands that if the United States cannot defeat it economically, it will try to strangle it technologically. That means Beijing is likely to push for: ▪️ easing chip restrictions; ▪️ access to advanced equipment; ▪️ partial sanctions relief; ▪️ stability in trade relations. The second major issue is Taiwan. The third is status. China wants to demonstrate that the United States can no longer resolve major global crises without Beijing. For Xi Jinping, that is strategically just as important as economics. What cards does President Trump still have? Some exist - but nearly all of them are costly. The United States still controls critical technologies, which remains Washington’s most painful pressure point against China. Beijing is genuinely vulnerable to restrictions in AI and semiconductors. A second lever involves secondary sanctions against Chinese companies working with Iran, though that would amount only to targeted pressure. The third is Taiwan - but that is also dangerous. China has repeatedly made clear that this issue is non-negotiable. And this is President Trump’s central problem: almost any major blow against China would also hurt the United States itself. The American economy remains deeply dependent on Chinese supply chains, critical materials, and manufacturing. These are now negotiations between two centers of power, where for the first time in many years the United States appears to be the side that needs stabilization more than China does. And Beijing understands that perfectly - and will use it accordingly.