Hartwell

Wall Street finally waking up to bitcoin miner transformation. $CIFR AWS deal. $IREN Microsoft deal. Both trading like it's still 2023. This mispricing won't survive Q2 earnings.

AI trade, broken into buckets: Chips: $NVDA Hyperscaler platforms: $AMZN, $GOOGL Infra: $IREN, $CIFR Software: $ZETA Speculative gov/infra: $ONDS My portfolio doesn’t need all of them at max size. It needs the right mix sized sanely.

AI stack in one tweet: $NVDA selling the GPUs.​ $IREN and $CIFR building the data centers and power footprint behind those GPUs. $ZETA turning that compute into marketing revenue with Athena.​ I’d rather own multiple layers than bet everything on one ticker.

This week is going to be emotional. I’m not here to predict war or peace. I’m here to: Respect gap risk Respect liquidity risk Respect that “obvious” trades can still fail Objective: Make it through the next 30–60 days with capital and conviction intact.

If you felt sick reading the Iran headlines and immediately thought about your portfolio… that’s your position sizing talking. Signal: Positions too big. Goal: Sleep-through-any-headline sizing. My framework isn’t changing because of today. It’s being tested by today.

Geopolitics reminder: You don’t control headlines. You don’t control missiles. You do control sizing, leverage, and how much overnight risk you carry. My playbook today is about survival first, upside second.

Good morning ☕️ A position that keeps you up at night is too big. Size down until you can sleep. Then think clearly.

Markets are closed but risk is wide open. After the U.S. and Israel struck Iran, the only certainty is higher volatility ahead. I’m not guessing outcomes. I’m stress-testing positions and my own risk management.

I don’t need to predict every headline. I need: Durable contracts Clear catalysts Honest sizing That’s why I’ll talk about $NVDA / $AMZN / $GOOGL for relevance… …but my real work is still being done in the infra names actually tied to those flows.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 OpenAI officially reaches deal with the Pentagon to deploy its AI models for military use.

Good morning ☕️ The market doesn't reward being right. It rewards being right AND early. That's the hard part.

Lesson from $EOSE crash: Execution risk is REAL. Backlog doesn't matter if you can't convert it to revenue. That's why I size positions for downside, not just for upside thesis. $IREN $CIFR $ZETA sized accordingly.

Weekend ahead. $IREN MSCI complete. Infrastructure positioned. Catalysts: $ZETA Athena by March 31 (32 days), $IREN April scaling (33 days), $ONDS earnings March 10. Risk managed.

$CIFR facts: Morgan Stanley initiated Feb 9 with $38 PT. Stock at $16.35. AWS $5.5B/15yr contract. 300MW capacity. Revenue starts August (154 days). Time arbitrage play - market hasn't priced the AWS transformation yet.

Portfolio update: Dropped $EOSE after -43% crash yesterday. Earnings miss too severe (revenue $58M vs $93M expected). Keeping $IREN $CIFR $ZETA $ONDS. Position sizing matters - this is why you don't oversize speculative plays.

$IREN MSCI USA Index addition COMPLETE today (Feb 27). Passive funds had to buy. Microsoft $9.7B deal locked. Targeting $3.4B ARR by 2026. Stock at $44. Analyst average $79. Infrastructure scales April (33 days).

Good morning ☕️ Patience isn't passive. It's actively choosing not to do something stupid while your thesis plays out.

Infrastructure thesis check: - $IREN: Microsoft contract ✓, MSCI indexed ✓, April scaling approaching - $CIFR: $9.3B contracted, H2 revenue starts - $ZETA: OpenAI powered, Q1 launch window - $ONDS: 3x revenue target (speculative) All fact-checked. All positioned.

$ZETA Athena countdown: 33 days until Q1 ends (March 31 deadline for full launch to all customers). OpenAI partnership confirmed (Jan 5). Beta live now. FY26 revenue guidance $1.54B. Stock at $20 vs analyst avg $25. Execution window narrowing.

Position sizing reminder: Can you hold through a -25% drawdown without selling? If no → reduce size If yes but uncomfortable → probably right If yes and comfortable → might be undersized Size for volatility, not just conviction.

$CIFR just changed name to Cipher Digital Inc. (Feb 2026) to reflect transformation. Facts: $9.3B contracted revenue (AWS $5.5B + Fluidstack $3.8B). Exited Bitcoin mining completely. Morgan Stanley $38 PT vs $16 current. Revenue starts H2 2026 (156 days).