David Hay

Proud and humbled to be #2 on this list. A lot of ups and downs, a ton of hard work, & our amazing subscribers got us here. A big shoutout to those who’ve helped along the way, including my friend @adamtaggart. Become a Haymaker & let’s keep punchin’! haymaker.substack.com

Markets are leaving YOLO in the dust and embracing HALO stocks. Find out what that means for markets and your portfolio in today’s MMM: haymaker.substack.com/p/macro-monday…

🚨 Macro Tuesday Missive 🚨 This is our most comprehensive “show the homework” MTM yet, and shows why our recommendations matter. 📊 Full performance tables 🔥 Trading Alerts that annualized up to 122% 🧠 A must-read macro note from Vincent Deluard haymaker.substack.com/p/macro-tuesda…

We’ve been warning of a “Great Rotation” for some time, and it appears it has arrived. Check out today’s Haymaker Daily to see why we think it’s happening now, and become a Haymaker today to get insights like this everyday: haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-dai…

ICYMI, check out my discussion on Thoughtful Money last week where I discuss what I think is currently the biggest risk facing the market: #economy #investing #finace youtube.com/watch?v=hUd9vt…

@thoughtfulmoney Thank you, Adam. It was a pleasure being on with you again! Here's to not getting taken out by that golf cart.. or Godzilla.

Wait...there's a bigger threat to markets than the "giant mindless robot" of passive capital flows going into reverse? David Hay @Haymaker_0 thinks so. And it's a threat practically no one is focused on To learn what it is, watch: youtu.be/hUd9vt6GNNk

See why the next crash may not look like 2008, but the policy response may be even bigger. If the Fed put survives, the play is owning what’s already priced for disaster. Also, as always, subscribers get our weekly equity pick. Check it out: haymaker.substack.com/p/making-hay-a…

Today's edition of Making Hay Monday tackles mobility and re-thinking its value in society. As always, we give our weekly equity pick to capitalize on this paradigm shift. Sign up today to get these (and much more) every week. haymaker.substack.com/p/making-hay-m…

Check out today's year-end trading alert: haymaker.substack.com/p/year-end-tra…

We are happy to announce the launch of our Daily-only subscription service on Beehiiv. We know times are tight, so for just $6/month, you can now get our daily Haymaker insights delivered straight to your inbox. Sign up below: haymakerdailies.beehiiv.com

Think gold’s topped out? To match the 1970s surge, bullion would need to rally another 550%. In today’s Haymaker Daily, we look at why Steve Hanke sees $6k gold, and why there are whispers about $10k. haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-dai…

75% of U.S. GDP growth this year may be from AI capex. That’s not hype, it’s math. If the bubble pops, the biggest hit might come not from layoffs or spending cuts.. …but from a stock crash hitting the top 10%’s wallets. 📉📈 Read more → haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-dai…

Trump’s gunning for Powell. Liquidity is surging. Commodities want out of their cage. The Fed’s independence is unraveling in real time, just as inflation starts rumbling again. Is The Big Easy making a comeback? 📩 This week’s Haymaker hits hard: haymaker.substack.com/p/making-hay-m…

This signal has flashed only 2 times since 1960 Both times, stocks rose by +20% first, then crashed Things are about to get absolutely crazy A thread 🧵

Buckle up, y'all..

The Fed gave us a clear ‘signal’ that wasn’t ‘noise’ today. The 4.4% unemployment rate call for year-end would take it 100 basis points above the cycle low. Back to 1948, that has never happened without an NBER-defined recession. By the time the jobless rate rises this much, the recession has already been in play, to everyone’s surprise each and every time, for five months on both a mean and median basis. The dot plots are still at two cuts for this year, but the historical record suggests that we are going to see a lot more because if past is prescient, the recession nobody believes will rear its ugly head will materialize as early as July. Buy bonds on (price) dips.

Powell finally found the "stag" and the "flation": Fed cuts year-end GDP forecast from 2.1% to 1.7% Fed raises year-end core PCE forecast from 2.5% to 2.8% Fed raises year-end unemployment forecast from 4.3% to 4.4%

Over the next four years, $28 trillion of the $36 trillion National Debt matures. Financing current deficits will add another $10 trillion. There is no way the U.S. can sell $38 trillion of Treasuries with a 4% handle. So either we pay 6% or more, or the Fed has to buy it all.

Now there is another reason to bring manufacturing back to the United States. A lot of crypto millionaires are going to need jobs.