Michael Bond retweetledi
A few thoughts.
There was always going to be a response to Ukraine targeting Shadow Fleet vessels, while these energy infrastructure attacks will effect civilians, the point for Russia was to shut down logistics, the ports and at least a portion of Ukraine's economy. They did so with shaheds and missiles because they are the most effective weapons Russia has right now.
"The most radical solution is to cut Ukraine off from the sea, then piracy will be impossible in principle," Putin.
While they may not have an effective Black Sea Fleet to stop transits of vessels, the economic portion of Ukraine's access to the Black Sea was at least temporarily hindered today. What is notable though is that it's unlikely he had a major effect on the USVs which are threatening his Shadow Fleet. Russia still has a difficult time finding a solution to that and their most notable response was another strike on a civilian ship headed out of Ukraine carrying an agricultural cargo. They have only done this once before and it was meant to send a message then, as is this.
Who takes the next step in this duel will be instructive for how escalatory this gets. Keep watching.
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