D Lambrozza

@UrbanKaoboy One can’t help but wonder about all the products in Asian and European supply chains that will rise in price and/or see shortages that will most definitely impact the U.S. I would think by June this becomes readily apparent

Musings of the Day, 4/3/26: Pretty strong numbers today, but obviously before Iran Oil Shock. The US Economy is much more insulated than RoW from high Oil prices, but make no mistake: This Oil spike is NOT Demand-led like 2021, and the resultant Demand Destruction will act like Monetary Tightening already. Ironically, it might be just enough to keep the rest of the economy from overheating.

@dampedspring I know a commodities PM who has been bearish crude for years and came into the conflict still bearish, but now I am thinking the only way he may be right is if demand destruction starts occurring now, before oil gets to $140/$150 or higher (p.s. he was more bullish nat gas)

Oil experts are an interesting breed of people. They are sorta like gold bugs. For long periods they sit in a distant corner of the financial markets. We pass by their desks and they nod at us and occasionally they get our attention and draw us close. We hear their predictions of chaos and global doom. We slowly back away and go about our business and live life. Episodically once every decade or so these same people are thrust to the center of the stage. They haven't changed. They are the same people. It's us who have decided to pay attention. Their story remains the same. Energy is a physical commodity and real supply shocks will unleash chaos on the global economy for years to come. The thing is they amaze us with their depth and understanding of all things energy. Barrel count, geopolitical alignments of countries, grades, distillates, etc. So many facts. So much depth. So credible. They always had this level of credibility. They have specialized in this topic for their lifetime and we are simply tourists. They are incredibly valuable and always have been. Maybe this time is different. Certainly market prices of oil and scarce immediate supply is "chaotic" and feeds back into the real economy. Heck I care about the path of oil and its impact on the global economy and various market sectors. At the same time I suggest recognizing that YOU are the one who has changed. If your Oil guru or gurus have been saying the same thing for decades despite being wrong for decades it's your job to find the rare one who is pivoting and see their rationale and then for YOU to back slowly away from the perma oil bulls.

@ManLikeFrane1 @BoringBiz_ 100%! Although if I weren’t with friends or family then the loneliness factor alone would have me flying first class on commercial

@HerrHayek @BoringBiz_ if you had the money for it -- you'd travel on a private jet too

Warren Buffett is proof that living a boring lifestyle in the middle of nowhere is actually the best way to protect your reputation and mental sanity Imagine the scenario where a six decade long legacy as the world’s greatest investor went to waste just because your name showed up in one of the emails Absolutely dodged a bullet. All because he continues to live in a tiny home in Omaha while reading 10Ks all day

@biancoresearch @JackFarley96 The pattern of positioning against the latest trend in oil continues to be the best (admittedly) day-trading framework. Also expect calming verbiage at the start of any week and negative surprises by Thursday/Friday. Lots of $ to be made bucking consensus expectations/reactions

No TACO *TRUMP: MUST COMPLETE MISSION IN IRAN *TRUMP: GETTING VERY CLOSE TO FINISHING JOB IN IRAN *TRUMP: WE WILL FINISH THE JOB VERY FAST *TRUMP: WILL HIT IRAN EXTREMELY HARD OVER NEXT 2-3 WEEKS *TRUMP SAYS US WILL HIT IRAN'S ELECTRIC PLANTS IF NO DEAL

@KikinChikin @QuantumAlteredX Radio enables multi-tasking and active imagination also, that may just be the better format given the TV viewing tends to have to be binary, and most of it feels dreadfully slow to me … baseball has to figure out how to better engage audiences, as NFL does

@HerrHayek @QuantumAlteredX Woah! I didn’t realize it was that little. Makes sense though. I loved baseball on the radio when I was growing up. My Royals (late 80s and 90s) weren’t in contention, but listening to anything but a blowout was very engaging and it’s a good memory.

Batter strikes out swinging at all 3 pitches. Ump forgets the count. Entire stadium forgets the count. Then he walks on only 3 balls. No one in the entire place including pitcher and catcher noticed. I've never seen anything like it.

@KikinChikin @QuantumAlteredX I once read there are an average of only 11 minutes of “action” (defined as balls hit into fair play) in a typical 3-hour game; that ratio will lose viewers forever in today’s ADD/information overload age (and average viewer is what, 63 years old?)

@QuantumAlteredX This is how baseball games function in person. No one cares until the ball is hit. The modern attention span doesn’t correlate with watching baseball played by anyone over the age of 12.

@TukiFromKL Can a quantum computer pick the lock to my safe and walk away with my gold and silver bars and coins? [Asking for a friend, think I already know the answer ;-) ]

🚨 Do you understand what Google just published.. they said a quantum computer could crack Bitcoin's private keys in 9 minutes.. everyone's panicking about crypto.. but nobody's asking the real question.. if quantum cracks Bitcoin.. it also cracks your bank account.. your credit cards.. SWIFT transfers.. stock exchanges.. military communications.. nuclear launch codes.. every single HTTPS website you've ever logged into.. the same encryption protecting your savings account at Chase is the same encryption protecting Bitcoin.. if one falls.. they all fall.. and here's what nobody's telling you.. this needs 317,000 qubits to work.. the best quantum computer on earth right now has about 1,000.. they announced a countdown.. and the clock just started.

@TukiFromKL Can a quantum computer pick the lock to my safe and walk away with my gold and silver bars and coins? (Asking for a friend, think I already know the answer)

@Jkylebass The latter only happens if we are fine leaving the Straight to Iran and allowing it to collect tolls going forward … not at all optimal but likely the U.S. and Israel would envision “mowing the lawn” there again within 3-5 years (if not sooner)

Global markets are vastly underestimating the severity of what’s unfolding. It’s worth considering how the economies of Europe and Asia will cope with imminent shortages of food, fuel, and medicine. Brent crude futures seem to be pricing in a quick return to normalcy.

@briangobosox And what of all the US imports and Asia supply chains that would spike CPI and outright shortages here, even if we are last on the list to feel direct effects? Seems like a potentially tough grind ahead if this becomes the permanent stance

Rubio has been clear in recent appearances that the Strait, if Iran decides to monkey with it, is an international problem, and not on the set of US objectives.

@briangobosox Agree, Iran gets 1 bullet to spend here, but rest of world should be on an all-out effort to diversify away from Gulf and Iran threat forever after, so 5-10 years out Iran has zero impact anymore (and maybe a lot less revenue too)

Hormuz sees 130- 150 ships transit per day in peacetime. What’s the demand for transit at $2m a crossing? This “Iran controls the strait” thing is sort of like the “China controls rare earth magnets” thing. Once you use the weapon, the market begins to degrade it.

@brithume Opening the Straight at this point should by far the most important objective, but that is still looking dubious without a much more major military commitment. Our navy is not looking all-powerful against potential missile and drone strikes.

If you read nothing else today about the Iran war, read this:

@briangobosox @hump_bear Maybe just mildly inflationary, and also would think there’s ongoing danger of other Arab countries plus Israel not being satisfied enough with that outcome, so conflict could fester … world has to diversify away from that region’s resources for sure

@hump_bear let’s say Trump takes his ball and goes home. Iran is closing the strait? To which countries and to what end? To bring Trump and his bombs back? Or do they charge tolls? Then the tolls get paid while the UN dithers, NATO figures out what to do etc. Why’s that so bearish?

@orrdavid So no worries then about all the 2nd order effects and derivative products we DO import? Everything from Asian and European supply chains would become much more expensive, plain and simple

The Hormuz blockade strategy is from 40 years ago. It only made sense back when it actually hurt the USA. Now that we have cheap shale oil, the strategy is obsolete because Iran blockading the rest of the world's oil doesn't actually hurt the USA.

@DowdEdward @SpecialSitsNews Market slowly picking up on Boy Who Cried Wolf

@SpecialSitsNews Notice that post came out at 4:11. Futures spiked than gave most of it back into futures close. Methinks that these pumps are quickly being ignored for now.

TRUMP ON PAUSE ON IRAN ENERGY STRIKES: IRANIANS ASKED ME TO DO THAT

@LynAldenContact As Luke Gromen puts it these days, you need check only one table every morning: how many ships made it through the Straight last 24 hours? Everything else is just noise.

The market increasingly has one question: will the strait open somewhat soon or no?

@biancoresearch This time the Boy Who Cried Wolf game may not yield the positive results of the tariff game … more leverage for the other side

Quick summary of the week: Monday, 48 hours almost up, we are going to blow everything up Wednesday, we are going to get a deal. Thursday, no deal, we are going to blow everything up. How many more cycles of this will we have by next week?

@dampedspring I’m thinking even the Iranians read “Boy Who Cried Wolf” (not to mention witnessed half a dozen TACOs during tariff negotiations)

@HayekAndKeynes So sounds like 75% chance of leaving Iran to tax everyone leaving the Straight and cause much of the oil to be priced in yuan. Relative to the alternative this may be a win, but certainly not on any absolute basis, no?

Trump is re-escalating into the weekend Time for him to decide: -A huge attack to set in motion a series of mutually destructive infrastructure attacks and prolong the war. Economic consequences are well documented. - Art of the deal. Mission accomplished. Go home. Let international pressure on Iran force the strait to reopen My view is 25% odds they attack (take Kharg, secure the Strait, continue going after military infra, and nuke capacity), 75% they continue to de-escalate. More broadly this is really about the future of warfare and not about Iran specifically. Even if you destroy all of the conventional military assets (largely done) one trainload of Temu drone supplies from China is enough to allow them to continue to harass shipping and inflict real hits to nearby Gulf energy infrastructure. They can build these things in any sewer or house. They will be as hard to eradicate as an invasive weed. We can eventually develop tools to defend against these things (vs eliminating them), but trial and error in live combat is not the best way. Ultimately, other than cyber attacks and domestic terrorism, Iran has no real way to hurt the US other than inflicting pain on the entire world by depriving them of energy. They can also they can do a lot of damage to innocent 3rd parties in the gulf (though I actually believe that destroying infrastructure is actually is a long-term benefit for the US [we are an energy superpower now)]but attacking would be a deeply flawed decision). With that said I was completely wrong last year when I said they would attack and expected it to be catastrophic. They have done a great job of neutering conventional military assets. Outside of Iran disrupting Hormuz there have been limited consequences. It’s obviously possible I’m being a worrywart and that intelligence is much stronger that we thought possible (apparently they were using street cams to target key players in the regime with drones). Anyway, just a reminder that this is a very fluid situation, don’t hang on to your priors for long, don’t take a ton of risk, and to pivot with changes as they happen.