Chris Waller

I write about ‘hidden gems’ in small cap value stocks based on extensive primary research. This includes 30 page reports (with 1 page summary) after speaking with ~20 industry experts, and insights from attending trade shows. Learn more at: hiddengemsinvesting.com

Tomorrow at 11.00 am ET, Hidden Gems Investing will publish a 30-page report on a dominant US-listed small cap with over 50% market share. I have monitored this company closely for 3 years but only recently invested for the first time. That is because an industry slowdown has masked the company’s earnings power and caused the stock to sell down, but my data and industry interviews show that has reversed. In fact, industry conditions this year are the strongest in almost a decade, and the company’s earnings are likely to rebound back to normal and overshoot. I estimate the company’s 2026 EBIT will be +54% y/y and 32% above consensus estimates. My Base case sees 104% upside over three years and a superior IRR because strong results this year should to be the catalyst for most of that upside. I see limited risk to an investment today. Even if I am completely wrong and EBIT does not grow at all in 2026, the stock trades on below its historic average valuation multiple. My research included 13 long-form interviews with former employees, competitors, and customers, dozens of short interviews at the industry’s biggest trade show, and a survey of hundreds of independent dealers. ➡️ Only paid members will receive a copy of the report, so make sure you go to Hidden Gems Investing and upgrade now to receive a copy tomorrow. Most of our reports require over 100 hours of research and thousands of dollars in research expenses. A subscription gives you all that work, saving you enormous time and cost. You can view our report on TerraVest for free to see what our Special Reports are like. (Go to Hidden Gems Investing -> Special Reports at the top -> scroll to TerraVest. The link is in my profile)

On Tuesday at 11.00 am ET, Hidden Gems Investing will publish a 30-page report on a dominant US-listed small cap with over 50% market share. I have monitored this company closely for 3 years but only recently invested for the first time. That is because an industry slowdown has masked the company’s earnings power and caused the stock to sell down, but my data and industry interviews show that has reversed. In fact, industry conditions this year are the strongest in almost a decade, and the company’s earnings are likely to rebound back to normal and overshoot. I estimate the company’s 2026 EBIT will be +54% y/y and 32% above consensus estimates. My Base case sees 104% upside over three years and a superior IRR because strong results this year should to be the catalyst for most of that upside. I see limited risk to an investment today. Even if I am completely wrong and EBIT does not grow at all in 2026, the stock trades on below its historic average valuation multiple. My research included 13 long-form interviews with former employees, competitors, and customers, dozens of short interviews at the industry’s biggest trade show, and a survey of hundreds of independent dealers. ➡️ Only paid members will receive a copy of the report, so make sure you go to Hidden Gems Investing and upgrade now to receive a copy tomorrow. Most of our reports require over 100 hours of research and thousands of dollars in research expenses. A subscription gives you all that work, saving you enormous time and cost. You can view our report on TerraVest for free to see what our Special Reports are like. (Go to Hidden Gems Investing -> Special Reports at the top -> scroll to TerraVest. The link is in my profile)

TerraVest released a data point in Q1 results that suggests one segment is about to see rapid growth. The company had a C$50m cash inflow from customer deposits, by far the largest it has ever reported, taking total customer deposits on the balance sheet to C$107m. TerraVest doesn’t disclose which segment the deposits relate to, but my guess is Highland Tank and Simplex, two businesses benefitting from the build out of data centers. I think the HVAC segment could see revenue growth well into double digits this year. If you're interested in more detail, I just published an update at Hidden Gems Investing. See the link in the next post. $TVK.TO

@leveredvalue @kingdomcapadv @MaaizKhan @Mr_Neutral_Man @thepupil11 @CalgaryLeveen @Mc_Partnerships They say it should improve EBITDA by $22mm, which given the Tin had $-17.8mm in 2025 implies a lease of about $4mm. There will be a % profit share above a threshold too. I'm very impressed they were able to get these economics given they had no negotiating leverage.

@kingdomcapadv @MaaizKhan @Mr_Neutral_Man @HiddenGemsInves @thepupil11 @CalgaryLeveen @Mc_Partnerships What do we think the new baloon meuseum lease is? I was thinking 54k sqft *$150/sqft = $8.1M a year plus reimbursements but y'all follow this closer than I do

$SEG balloon museum PF $22M

Imagine a miniature Berkshire Hathaway, but instead of insurance, it’s lasers, cryogenics, and setting things on fire! 🔥 Welcome to 🇬🇧 Judges Scientific $JDG $JDG.L. A tiny London HQ with 6 staff that somehow runs ~25 scientific instrument businesses. It is down 63% from ATH in the largest drawdown in its history. I have 9% of my entire net worth invested in it! Allow me to elaborate on some of its niche subsidiaries. Buckle up. 🔬👇

$XPEL - I don't think Q1 revenue guidance of +7.9% to +9.8% should be extrapolated into the medium term. 1. Tough comp XPEL grew 15% in Q1 last year, helped by a US pull-forward ahead of tariffs and an unusually large China distributor order (China was +459%). 2. Industry volumes are weaker US auto demand is slowing and was further impacted by the expiration of EV tax credits at the end of September. Penske, Lithia, and AutoNation each reported ~high single / low double-digit same-store declines in Q4 and are guiding to a softer year with EV/luxury weaker. 3. Market share gains Installers I spoke with in February suggested competitor brands are down in absolute terms. Eastman also said on its earnings call it reduced headcount in its performance films business by ~7% last year. I continue to believe XPEL can grow at low/mid teens and that the manufacturing buildout will increase margins significantly. ➡️ If you're interested in learning more, I wrote an update on these points after attending XPEL's Dealer Conference recently. Go to the link in the next post to read.

Seaport Entertainment $SEG made two announcements over recently that remove most of the risk in the equity and give it a much clearer path to profitability: 1. The sale of 250 Water St closed for $142m 2. The Tin Building has been shut and leased to Balloon Museum Net of Q4 cash burn and taxes on the 250 Water St sale, I estimate Seaport now has ~$175m of cash and only ~$50m of debt + preferred. The market cap is $295mm. The company has made big progress on cash burn since the spin-off, but the Tin Building was the one property holding it back - the building generated $-22mm in EBITDA in the last twelve months. I think leasing the building out is the best case scenario. Not only will the cash burn disappear overnight, Seaport will actually generate an undisclosed amount of rent from Balloon Musuem when it opens this summer. Combined with a roughly $10mm swing from not having to pay interest expenses on the 250 Water St mortgage and now earning interest income on the cash that means most of the company’s cash burn has now been eliminated and it has a clear path to profitability.

Our latest update is released! TerraVest - Clues that one segment is about to grow rapidly Seaport Entertainment - Sale of 250 Water St and the Tin Building leased out XPEL - Why weak Q1 growth should not be extrapolated ➡️ Read the article at Hidden Gems Investing (link in the next post) I hope you enjoy it! $TVK.TO, $SEG, $XPEL

Just released on Latticework: GCI Liberty: Cash Cow Asset With Tax Shields and M&A Optionality - Presentation at Best Ideas 2026 latticework.com/p/gci-liberty-…

$GLIBK — John Malone on GCI at Liberty Media’s Investor Day recently: "And the spin-off of a little company that I'm going to talk about in a minute, GCI out of Liberty Broadband because I was already over 50 of the voting control of Liberty Broadband, I end up in hard control of it. And it will be, let's say, by next summer, the only company that I expect to still be on the Board of, a public company, where I'll be Chairman, at least until it figures out what its strategy is. I personally believe I can start another Liberty Media with appropriate strategy and capital structure using that as a core vehicle. It got spun off with extraordinarily good tax attributes. Guess that, why would you think that? And I think a sustainable cash flow generation, relatively modest capital investment requirements to sustain the business. And I think it is appropriate to think of as a vehicle for growth and for recreating something like the original Liberty Media. The benefit, of course, is that the great staff at Liberty Media that has been assembled, the young folks, quite talented are available to support that enterprise on a contractual basis. And I've asked some close friends of mine to be involved. Now I made the original investment, I believe, in the Alaska Communications business in 1989, I believe, Ron Duncan, who's been consistently its CEO since, done a great job. It does a wonderful job for the state of Alaska. It's not like most companies, it doesn't face multiple competitors in every aspect of its business. It's a duopoly really in the cellular business in the larger towns and it's a virtual monopoly in terms of the terrestrial broadband business. So it's a little different than what you see under a lot of stress in terms of the average cable company right now or old cable company. So that differentiates it. But using my thesis that you can do well by accumulating undervalued assets, sheltering them, sheltering their taxes, appropriately managing their tax liabilities and their use of capital, I think, it represents kind of an interesting opportunity for me and for anybody else who chooses to come along. We are doing -- we've announced the rights offering where we're going to raise $300 million of new equity. It's not an over levered business. It's only levered about 2.7x with pretty good debt. So I'm setting it up basically to be able to do deals and grow. And I personally am backstopping the $300 million rights offering. So we'll see what happens. It's an interesting thing." [Later on]: "Well, first of all, on my scheme for what do I do with GCI. When markets dump sectors. They're not very discriminatory, okay? They throw the baby out with the bathwater. So trust me in this huge world, we've got there are a number of communications businesses that are going to generate a lot of free cash flow for a very long time that are selling very cheap okay? And so the goal is to find those, be selective, own enough of them that when you shrink them, you're just driving up your own economics, okay? Same model. And shelter their free cash flow because you have extraordinary tax attributes, use financial engineering where it's appropriate. When we created the spin-off vehicle GCIL, we did it in the state of Nevada, which has much more flexible charter governance than Delaware. We set it up with the ability to do tracking stocks, for instance, to do preferred of anything I can dream up. I might point out the first Liberty Media when we first created it was because we didn't think we were getting appropriate valuation on miscellaneous assets. We threw them into an entity called Liberty Media. We did a simultaneous incorporation. Within a month or so of its creation, I issued a preferred stock, distributed to all Liberty Media shareholders that had a bigger face value than the market cap of the company because I wanted to shift tax basis from common to preferred. And then those people who wanted to recover their tax bases like me, could sell the preferred, recover the capital and go forward with an equity that was more levered, but without a risky type of leverage because the preferreds were very soft and very flexible. And so it was a little financial engineering, but it was very important to effectively in one transaction, double the value of the common equity, which effectively happened. So financial engineering in some situations is important and the flexibility to do so is important. So that's kind of the way I look at it. So I look at opportunities in a space that I'm familiar with. If you can't find them in the space you're familiar with, you look at tangential synergies where your tax attributes, your financial attributes, your timing, you can be truly opportunistic. I mean what the hell did we know about satellite radio when Sirius became an opportunity, for instance. So being opportunistic, making sure you've got flexibility and currency to be able to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves. I think -- so timing is a very important thing. I think that's the way I see it as an opportunity because I've got some pretty smart staff members over at LMC. The other thing you have to understand about LMC, the vast -- they were saying -- have been saying grace that staff over a number of public companies that LMC has nothing to do with it, right? On a contractual basis. So as a practical matter, the Liberty staff has been running everything from Sirius to Liberty Broadband and so on." ➡️ If you are interested in learning more about why John Malone is stepping back from Liberty Media and Liberty Global but remaining at GCI to turn it into an advantaged acquirer, go to Hidden Gems Investing to read the report I just published (link in the next post). The report is 30 pages with a 1 page summary and is based on interviews with 17 sources. It covers: 1. What does this opportunity exist? 2. GCI's economics and competitive advantages 3. The threat of Starlink 4. John Malone's strategy to turn GCI into an advantaged acquirer 5. Valuation scenarios I hope you enjoy it! $GLIBA $LBRDA $CHTR

$GLIBK - What is GCI Liberty’s competitive advantage? Most investors think Alaska’s telecom market is too small, too cold, or too remote. But that is what creates GCI’s barriers to entry. It is simply too expensive for new entrants to build out infrastructure at 2-3x the cost of the Lower 48 to serve a population 6x less dense than Wyoming. GCI serves 80% of Alaska’s population through fiber and microwave networks that no competitor can replicate economically. GCI’s most valuable business is with hospital and school customers and is heavily subsidized by FCC/government programs that are unlikely to fund fiber overbuild to villages of 600 people. And even as Starlink grows, critical infrastructure like hospitals and schools need broadband that works 24/7 with no downtime and significant redundancy – something which multiple sources told me makes Starlink unsuitable for anything except as a backup. While Starlink will continue to take small numbers of consumers in remote villages, between 2023-25 GCI’s school funding increased 37%. Hospitals and schools are locked in on 3+ year contracts and likely to remain high value customers for decades. ➡️ If you are interested in learning more about why John Malone is stepping back from Liberty Media and Liberty Global but remaining at GCI to turn it into an advantaged acquirer, go to Hidden Gems Investing to read the report I just published (link in the next post & my bio). The report is 30 pages with a 1 page summary and is based on interviews with 17 sources. It covers: 1. What does this opportunity exist? 2. GCI's economics and competitive advantages 3. The threat of Starlink 4. John Malone's strategy to turn GCI into an advantaged acquirer 5. Valuation scenarios I hope you enjoy it! $GLIBA $LBRDA $CHTR