High Groove Analyitics

🇺🇸 Tier 2 – High‑upside values Chase Elliott – Home‑region favorite with solid short‑track form; not Bell/Logano level on paper but capable of stealing a win with clean track position. William Byron – Versatile Hendrick driver who’s very strong at Phoenix/New Hampshire‑type ovals; a threat if the car unloads close on balance. Shane van Gisbergen – Road/street ace whose precision and throttle control can translate to Wilkesboro’s technical layout; volatile but high ceiling if he adapts quickly. Ryan Preece – Short‑track specialist, RFK equipment plus his natural feel for tight ovals make him a strong top‑10/top‑5 value. Carson Hocevar – Young, aggressive short‑track racer; if he keeps it clean, his raw pace and willingness to attack can pay off in a 450‑lap grind.

🇺🇸 Tier 1B – Primary contenders Joey Logano – Penske short‑track closer, elite at managing track position, restarts, and long green runs on flat ovals over 450 laps. Brad Keselowski – RFK veteran who routinely over‑performs at flat, technical tracks and thrives when patience and tire management matter. Denny Hamlin – JGR strategist with a deep short‑track resume; race craft and pit calls can overcome slight pace deficits. Chase Briscoe – Coming off strong runs at other technical tracks; Wilkesboro’s rhythm corners suit his ability to roll center and drive off well.

Window World 450 – pre‑race tiers 🏁 🇺🇸 Tier 1 – Win core Christopher Bell – JGR Toyota ace, one of the best pure short‑track operators with strong Phoenix/Richmond form; ideal for Wilkesboro’s technical, brake‑heavy style. Ryan Blaney – Consistent Penske short‑track performer, keeps the car clean and capitalizes on late‑race restarts. Kyle Larson – Hendrick high‑ceiling ace whose ability to find grip and attack unique lines should translate to Wilkesboro’s uphill/downhill layout. Ty Gibbs – Rapidly improving JGR short‑track talent with strong speed at other 750‑HP ovals, supported by elite teammates and data.

@MadShipperVolty @jeff_gluck Who said anything about sending people to roll out a tarp. It’s 2026 we have AI robots to do that for us 😂

@HighGrooveA @jeff_gluck Yes. Send people out to install tarps in a storm. What could go wrong? Even if there is no lightining you are talking slips, falls, etc. And the amount of tarp would be insanely expensive. God forbid you have a hole in the tarp.

Dang it. Look at that rain. Welp...see ya in a bit, I guess.

@bobby_0081 @ItsCJRr @jeff_gluck A two mile tarp covered in sponsors sounds like $$$$$.

@HighGrooveA @ItsCJRr @jeff_gluck It could be sponsored by an awning company like SunSetter and the could have a mechanism that rolls it up after they squeegee most of the water off.

@bobby_0081 @ItsCJRr @jeff_gluck Yess!! Agree!!

@ItsCJRr @HighGrooveA @jeff_gluck If it was rolled up on top of the safer barrier it could literally roll down the hill with little effort. Picking it up would be the worst part.

@theKentWhitaker @jeff_gluck We’ve sent robots to Mars, I refuse to believe covering a racetrack with a tarp is where engineering taps out 😂

@HighGrooveA @jeff_gluck This is dumb! Do you realize how damn big this tarp would have to be? Every track would have a separate tarp specific to that facility. Where would the tarp be stored during the race? In the pits. In the stands? How to deployed? a dozen people for an infield. So,500 for a track?

@BakedBanana27 @Superthrasher55 @jeff_gluck Yes!! Now we’re thinking of solutions! It’s possible!

@Superthrasher55 @HighGrooveA @jeff_gluck It could be a foot under ground and rollers pup up then you can just attach it to the fence. A good pulley system could do it with minimal winches. Only realistic on shorter ovals and still not perfect for all parts of the track but you could cover a lot of ground.

@Nichola32767971 @jeff_gluck Haha yes exactly!

@HighGrooveA @jeff_gluck It’s crazy how much technology is in an actual nascar but rolling plastic over the track is impossible ?

@jeff_gluck We sent people to the moon. I’m pretty sure we can engineer a tarp that covers a 2-mile NASCAR track

@jeff_gluck Still doesn’t make sense to me why NASCAR tracks don’t use giant tarps to cover the racing surface during rain delays. It seems like it would be more efficient and probably cheaper than relying on jet dryers.

@jeff_gluck Letting it just rain on the track when you can literally cover it with a tarp is the dumbest thing nascar does that everyone just accepts.

Tier 1B / 2 – High‑upside values / threats Bubba Wallace – Very strong 5–15‑lap speed and good long‑run averages; Q8 track position pushes him into real win/top‑3 territory. William Byron – Top‑5 in most short‑run windows with respectable long‑run pace; starting 10th, live to convert speed into a podium. Ty Gibbs – Elite fall‑off (rank 1) and a P5 start; high‑ceiling young gun if the race trends long‑green. Christopher Bell – Good practice and strong qualifying inside the top 10; a tick behind the absolute long‑run studs but a very real top‑5/win threat on adjustments. Alex Bowman – Hendrick piece with solid pace and mid‑pack starting spot; more “grind into top‑5/top‑10” unless the car is better in race trim than the data suggests. Chris Buescher – RFK short‑run rocket from the front; practice + fall‑off point to more volatility over 40–60 laps, classic “stage points + possible fade” profile. Brad Keselowski – RFK veteran with strong early‑run pace; if tire fade is manageable, he can live in the top‑5, otherwise he profiles similarly to Buescher. Corey Heim – Elite practice composite but buried in P28; perfect DFS/long‑shot play whose outcome hinges on traffic, cautions, and clean pit cycles more than raw pace.

Chicagoland tiers after practice + qualifying 🏁 Tier 1 – Win favorites Tyler Reddick – Best composite long‑run car, top‑tier fall‑off (rank 3), P13 start keeps him in clean air and in control of 10–25 lap runs. Denny Hamlin – On pole with solid practice and a bit more fall‑off than Reddick, but elite track position + JGR strategy firmly anchor him in the win core. Kyle Larson – Starts P2, very good intermediate résumé and strong (if slightly less dominant) long‑run practice; still clear win material with track position. Chase Elliott – Hendrick grinder whose intermediate strength + race‑craft can turn solid long‑run pace into a top‑5 if the car trends better in race trim. Chase Briscoe – JGR‑backed Toyota with enough speed to hang in the lead group; more “podium with upside” than pure favorite, but firmly in the front group. Ryan Blaney – Top‑5 composite with excellent 10–25‑lap averages, falloff_rank 4, P14 start; checks every high‑wear Chicagoland box as a key part of the win tier.

Tier 2 – High‑upside values Chase Briscoe – JGR‑backed Toyota with enough speed to hang in the lead group; more “podium with upside” than pure favorite. Ryan Blaney – Penske’s steady closer; rarely the absolute fastest, but very good at managing tires and capitalizing on long green runs and late restarts. Alex Bowman – Underrated Hendrick driver whose long‑run balance can turn a P10 car into a P5 result if strategy breaks his way. William Byron – Strong on intermediates and capable of streaks; if Hendrick nails the aero platform, he can jump into the win core quickly. Daniel Suárez – Spire’s top Cup threat; not as consistent as the Hendrick/JGR group, but his intermediate ceiling keeps him in the “surprise winner” mix. Carson Hocevar – Young, aggressive Chevy who can pop in clean‑air runs; volatile, but worth attention in DFS and long‑shot markets on a multi‑groove track.

Tier 1B – Primary contenders Tyler Reddick – Thrives at high‑wear tracks where he can use the top lane; if the wall becomes a lane at Chicagoland, his upside jumps into true win territory. Christopher Bell – Quietly efficient Toyota who grades well at 1.5‑miles; perfect candidate to steal a win if the big names miss the setup. Ty Gibbs – Rapidly improving JGR young gun; if his intermediate form keeps trending up, he’s live for a breakout Chicago run from this tier.

Chicagoland pre‑practice tiers 🏁 Tier 1 – Win core Denny Hamlin – Veteran Toyota ace with JGR power, strong on high‑wear 1.5‑miles and sharp enough to win through strategy even if raw speed isn’t perfect. Kyle Larson – Best pure talent in the field; if Hendrick unloads close, his long‑run pace and ability to work multiple grooves make him terrifying at a Homestead‑style Chicagoland. Chase Elliott – Hendrick’s other hammer on intermediates; when the car is close, he grinds out track position and tends to convert strong long‑run speed into top‑5s.

Tier 2 – High‑value contenders Chase Briscoe – Near‑Larson long‑run averages; if JGR nails pit strategy, he’s very live at +2200. Ty Gibbs – Strong across all stint lengths with moderate fall‑off; aggressive enough to win, volatile enough to be more upside than “lock.” Chris Buescher – RFK Ford that holds pace over 15 laps; classic “quiet top‑5” Sonoma profile at mispriced outright/top‑10 odds. Ryan Blaney – Good but not dominant averages; solid podium/top‑5 candidate whose edge is race‑craft + Penske strategy, not pure lap time. Michael McDowell – Veteran road‑course specialist with steady long‑run numbers; ideal sleeper who can convert track position into another Sonoma surprise.

Sonoma tiers after practice + qualifying 🏁 Tier 1 – Win favorites Kyle Larson – Fastest car on short + long runs, starting up front at Sonoma, where clean air + rhythm usually decide the race. Tyler Reddick – Top‑tier 10–15 lap pace with proven road‑course chops; if he manages tire fade, he’s Larson’s main threat. Shane van Gisbergen – Street/road specialist, a tick behind on raw pace, but lethal if strategy breaks his way.

@CoreyHeim_ Congratulations @CoreyHeim_

First win tee‼️