HolySteelEV

@eightyhi Dude if you’re gonna slobber over Kalshi, defend the 90% volume on sports instead of continuously ignoring it. Actually unbelievable that you people exist and say this is good for the world it’s disgusting

Tarek cooked here. 1. the line between “gambling” and “speculation” is invisible, it’s totally semantics and vibes based 2. you need speculation for functioning markets 3. the price is the product! these forecasts are good for the world

@eightyhi How is 1st half total points of an nba game good for the world?

@0xleegenz r/imfourteenandthisisdeep

A guy told me: "Law school is better than med school because doctor go to jail for their mistakes, but when lawyer makes a mistake, someone else goes" I started to drink since that day

@mansourtarek_ Delete sports betting then

2026 is the year of institutional adoption.

@johnleftman @Suntanbird Tarek Netanyahu

@Suntanbird Death by 1000 1.2% fees

I think we should reward both with lower fees on Kalshi 😃

@mansourtarek_ “I feel guilty so I fucked everyone over on my sportsbook for death”

Reposting because my other message was unclear: We settled the market to last traded price before time of death (per our rules). All positions, no matter when they were opened, got paid out on the last-traded price before his death. On top of that, if you bought a position yesterday (post time of death) for a higher price, we reimbursed you the difference between the price you bought and the last traded price before time of death. In addition, we reimbursed all fees paid in the total market for all users.

On Khamenei: We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here. I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these markets without a death carveout because it keeps the rules simple and because many traditional markets, like oil futures, can be proxy markets for war and death. But we believe that’s different than having a market directly settling on someone’s death, which is not allowed for US regulated entities. What’s the point of the market, then? A market on Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader was important because leadership changes in Iran have major impact on the world order: • geopolitical implications • economic consequences • national security considerations • oil and commodity prices, many of which move based on news and expectations around this outcome And it’s always possible for a ruler to step down or transition power without death, even in autocracies. It just happened in Venezuela. In these instances, we make the caveat clear in the rules and in the market page, but today is a good learning that we can do more in terms of improving the UX and adding more ways to surface the rules. We are committed to improving. In the meantime, here’s what we’re going to do: • We are reimbursing all fees from this market • If you have a position from before Khamenei died, you will be paid out on the last-traded price before his death. (This was clear in our rules) • If you have a position from after he died, we’re going to fully reimburse your cost of entry

@mansourtarek_ YOU ARE A HORRIBLE PERSON I HOPE YOU FEEL GUILT

@mansourtarek_ Can you remind me what percentage of your platform is sports betting?

Senator, regulated prediction markets are not allowed to do war markets. The market you're posting is unregulated and offshore.

@mansourtarek_ Can you explain how combos aren’t parlays?

Institutional adoption is here

@mansourtarek_ Why do you keep pretending your app isn’t a sportsbook? No one cares about this

The Citrini report caused a market sell off. But Citadel and others published rebuttals. Pricing the likelihood of this AI doomsday scenario could decrease uncertainty in the broader market and make asset prices more efficient. Kalshi has it at 11%. citriniodds.com

@mansourtarek_ Casino owner masquerading as a world hero btw

How?

@luanalopeslara Haha! Remember when you opened a sportsbook but pretended it was providing value to the world?

fucked around, found out

@mansourtarek_ @GovPressOffice Hey dude! Remember when you built an online sportsbook but pretended it wasn’t an online sportsbook?

Thank you for the shoutout @GovPressOffice and congrats on being in the lead for Dem nominee on Kalshi. Unlike some competitors, Kalshi is federally regulated: 1. It would be illegal for you to trade on this (that would be market manipulation). 2. You would be immediately flagged by our system if you tried (glad you didn't). We agree with you: policing insider trading is critical. We'll continue to work with our regulators and policymakers to improve the system where needed.

@johnleftman @ArbBets20 Shut up John Leftman

@ArbBets20 Yea 4% ROI over 11 months. No guarantee this gap closes any time soon

Big arbitrage opportunity.

@SaturdaySystem He’s also able to bet $375 on Bellarmine on Fanatics so

I don’t know this man but he’s on 🔥

@CarOnPolymarket Holy shit my friend got scammed by Frank Chen

I got targeted in a crypto social engineering scam. I could have lost $1M+, but I got lucky. Here's my full story. Sadly people are losing millions because they are still falling for social engineering scams. I almost also fell for one. So i'm writing this thread to warn others. I'll explain how the scam works and how you can protect yourself. I'll also show two scammers who reached out to me: Last year, a journalist (@carldylan) contacted me via X DMs, saying he wanted to interview me about my prediction market project, @PredictFolio. He claimed the interview would be published as an article on @CoinMarketCap. I was interested in the opportunity to introduce PredictFolio to a wider audience, so I agreed. However, the scammer insisted that the interview take place on “e-meet,” which I declined, knowing that platforms like Google Meet, Microsoft Teams, or Zoom are commonly used in social engineering scams.

@OlympusBets @pikkitsports Dude your model is wrong if it evers says 73.8% ev💀

@pikkitsports No

Is it Nebraska?

Yo @mansourtarek_ @luanalopeslara . If Satan wanted to start a casino he would do what you are doing. I hope you take a step back someday and catch yourself

@RiseUpReader Nothing good ever happens

bruh

@JohnnyTirbaso @ryrebio LMFAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

@HolySteelEV @ryrebio I made way more then I lost, I saw what I saw

To whatever complete idiot I argued with preseason about Ball not being a sufficient replacement for Jerome, go fuck yourself