HotTakeHawk
2.5K posts

HotTakeHawk
@HotTakeHawk
Real-time geopolitics & conflict analysis
Estados Unidos Katılım Ocak 2023
1.1K Takip Edilen172 Takipçiler

@FCB_Cartel @sama Got the same issue , deleted my whole bot trading folder and said sorry after 🫠
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Codex in the last 3 days has been a nightmare. Hallucination after hallucination, writing so much unwanted code, creating things that are not at all intended, taking too much time and burning tokens unnecessarily. Especially
/goal.
@sama something is wrong. It burned 50% of my Pro plan tokens for the week in 1 night creating a PR of size 104k lines and when asked about the PR : it said it’s useless and cleared the whole PR and closed it.
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Trump’s latest comments on Iran cooled down market expectations. After signaling progress, he now says there’s no rush for a deal and the U.S. blockade stays until it’s signed.
This reduces the chances of a quick drop in oil prices. Gold should also stay supported as geopolitical uncertainty remains high this week.
XAUUSD (Gold) – Simple Breakdown
Gold stayed strong during Monday’s Asian session, climbing near $4570 📈
👉 Safe-haven demand remains strong
👉 Market still worried about Middle East risks 🌍
⸻
What’s Driving the Market:
Middle East Tensions Still Supporting Gold 🛡
Even though US–Iran talks show some positive progress 🤝
Market still worried about:
• Hormuz Strait disruptions 🛢
• Global energy supply risks
• Slower global economic growth 📉
👉 Result:
Safe-haven demand remains strong
Gold continues receiving support 💰
⸻
Weak USD Helping Gold 📉💵
Recent USD weakness also helping gold move higher
👉 Why?
Weaker USD makes gold cheaper for global buyers
→ more buying demand 📈
⸻
Hormuz Strait Risk Still Important 🛢🔥
Hormuz Strait handles around 20% of global oil shipping
👉 If disruptions continue:
Oil prices may rise further
Inflation pressure may increase again
This keeps investors nervous ⚠️
⸻
US–Iran Negotiations Still Uncertain 🗣
US and Iran moving closer toward possible agreement
BUT…
Trump said he is not “in a hurry” to finalize a deal
👉 Meaning:
Major disagreements may still exist
Market uncertainty remains high
⸻
Big Picture (Important):
👉 Current market logic:
Geopolitical risk ↑
USD ↓
→ Gold ↑ 📈
⸻
👉 Overall trend still bullish
as long as safe-haven demand stays strong 🛡
⸻
Technical View (Easy):
Daily Chart:
Gold still maintaining strong bullish structure 📊
Price holding firmly above 4500 support
👉 Trend remains bullish overall
⸻
Resistance Zone 🚧
4600–4650 = key resistance area
👉 If breakout succeeds:
Next upside target may be near 4700 🚀
⸻
Support Zone 🛡
4500 = important support
Next support around 4460
👉 As long as price stays above support,
bullish structure remains intact ✅
⸻
Indicators 📊
MACD still bullish
But momentum slowing slightly ⚠️
RSI remains in high zone
→ bullish sentiment still strong
BUT…
Short-term pullback risk also increasing 📉
⸻
Short-Term Trading Idea:
👉 Weekly candle formed doji 🔄
Possible reversal week ahead
👉 Daily candle formed long lower wick 🕯
Showing strong buying support
Price also broke above descending trendline resistance 📈
👉 Current strategy:
Buy on dip
⸻
Trading Approach:
👉 Aggressive traders:
Can consider buy now
(with proper risk management 🎯)
👉 Safer traders:
Wait for pullback into 4558–4546 support zone
If support holds,
look for long opportunities 🛡
⸻
Strategy (Simple):
👉 Trend = bullish 📈
👉 Focus = buy on dip
👉 Watch Middle East headlines closely 🌍
⸻
Key Levels:
Resistance 🚫
4564 / 4571 / 4580 / 4890
Support 🛡
4558 / 4546 / 4535
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@MarioNawfal Nah… we are killing our selves for the past 10.000 years …
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👽 The reason aliens are observing humanity may be because we're a threat to them
"We have been discovered by an intelligence from some other part of the universe.
They are here. This is real. It is happening now."
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸 The Pentagon is releasing UFO files dating back to Apollo 12 in 1969. Astronauts reported weird beams of light; last year, a senior intel officer saw orange orbs circle his helicopter. 57 years of "nothing to see here" had a lot to see.
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Trump says a deal with Iran is “largely negotiated” and could be announced soon, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
While this sounds positive, past experience shows these “almost deals” often collapse at the last minute. Until something is actually signed, the risk of renewed strikes remains very real.
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Trump says a deal with Iran is “largely negotiated”, but major sticking points remain and skepticism is still high.
At Monday’s market open:
• Oil (WTI) may open lower toward $95 – $98 if risk eases temporarily
• Gold, currently at $4,506, is more likely to rise as markets remain unconvinced by the deal narrative, with potential to test $4,600 – $4,650
Until a concrete agreement is signed, safe-haven demand for gold should stay strong.

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Trump is set to hold an urgent call today with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey to discuss Iran.
The White House is treating this as a high-stakes moment, with Trump reportedly giving the chances of a deal around 50/50. He may decide as early as tomorrow whether to resume military action if no breakthrough is reached.
This call could determine whether diplomacy holds or if strikes return.

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AI is no longer experimental in warfare — it is actively changing how battles are fought in Ukraine right now.
Ukrainian forces are deploying drones with AI that can identify and lock onto targets in the final attack phase without continuous human control, bypassing Russian jamming. Russia has also upgraded its Lancet drones with AI targeting modules.
The side that masters autonomous systems at scale will gain a decisive advantage.

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China deployed over 100 naval and coast guard vessels across the First Island Chain in recent days.
This comes shortly after the Trump-Xi summit, with no major breakthroughs on Taiwan. Beijing continues applying steady military pressure while avoiding direct confrontation — a classic gray zone strategy to wear down Taiwan and test U.S. resolve.

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Talks between the U.S. and Iran appear to be moving toward a framework agreement to end the current phase of the conflict.
According to recent reports, the deal would focus on stopping hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while leaving the nuclear issue for later discussions. If confirmed, this could significantly reduce the immediate risk of escalation and ease pressure on global oil markets.
Markets will be watching for official confirmation in the coming hours.

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Iran’s top negotiator just told Reuters that Tehran will not make any further concessions in talks with the U.S.
This comes after reports of a 24-hour ultimatum for a 30-day framework deal. Iran’s hardened stance significantly raises the risk that negotiations collapse and strikes resume in the coming days.
Markets should stay on high alert — especially oil and gold.
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Iran has reportedly been given a 24-hour ultimatum to accept a framework deal that would pause strikes for another 30 days of negotiations.
According to informed sources, if Tehran rejects the proposal, military action is expected to resume. While this keeps diplomatic channels technically open, extending negotiations for another month gives Iran more time to reposition forces, resupply proxies, and prepare for further escalation.
The risk of renewed strikes remains very much alive.

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Ukrainian forces have carried out successful local counterattacks northwest of Lyman in recent days.
These operations have slowed Russian attempts to advance in the sector and disrupted their efforts to consolidate positions near key logistics routes. Despite continued Russian pressure around Lyman and toward Borova, Ukrainian defensive actions have prevented major breakthroughs in this part of the front.
Russia’s offensive momentum in the area remains limited for now.

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Oil is trading above $104 per barrel amid renewed fears over the Strait of Hormuz.
With Iran tensions still unresolved, any disruption in the waterway — which carries roughly 20% of global oil supply — could trigger severe fuel shortages worldwide.
The longer this drags on, the higher the risk of a global energy shock hitting inflation, supply chains, and economic growth.

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