Dirk Krueger

What are the extent/welfare costs of college financial aid application frictions? While many US HS grads (11%) don’t apply for aid due to applying difficulty/mistaken beliefs/unawareness, eliminating these frictions yields low gains b/c few of the affected would end up using aid.

The International Economic Review has just published a new exciting paper by Emily Moschini and Gajendran Raveendranathan on College Financial Aid Application Frictions. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ie…

The authors document how childcare costs and the location of extended family influence the labor supply and mobility of U.S. women using empirical analyses and a dynamic model. They find that childcare subsidies increase both the earnings and mobility of U.S. women considerably.

The International Economic Review has just published a new exciting paper by Garrett Anstreicher and Joanna Venator on To Grandmother's House We Go: Informal Childcare and Female Labor Mobility. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ie…

Winners quit fast & often; a visionary agent does so when she receives bad news. Opens opportunity for others to signal their vision by quitting too early or too late. Mimicking behavior is costly & compensated in equil. by higher reputation. Leads to non-monotone reputation dyn.

The International Economic Review has just published a new exciting paper by Junichiro Ishida and Wing Suen on Signaling Vision: Knowing When to Quit. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ie…

Are inflation expectation shocks symmetric? We show they are not. Using nonlinear VARs and a DSGE model, we find that negative shocks to long-run inflation expectations cause deeper, more persistent drops in output, investment, and firm entry due to “wait-and-see” effects.

The International Economic Review has just published a new exciting paper by Stefano Fasani, Mirela Miescu and Lorenza Rossi on Nonlinearities With Deanchored Inflation Expectations. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ie…

To receive UI, workers must satisfy eligibility requirements. Using state-border discontinuities, we find these shape UI and labor market dynamics. A heterogeneous-agent model with history-dependent UI implies an optimal policy with high monetary and short tenure requirements.

The International Economic Review has just published a new exciting paper by Gustavo de Souza and André Victor Luduvice on Optimal Unemployment Insurance Requirements. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

The International Economic Review has just published its first issue of 2026 with many exciting papers. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14682354/2…

We show Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment stabilizes block times only when miners’ reward elasticity <1. ASERT remains stable for any elasticity. Hash-supply competition across currencies is stabilizing. We estimate reward elasticities from halving and quantify effects.

The International Economic Review has published a new exciting paper by Kohei Kawaguchi, Junpei Komiyama and Shunya Noda on Miners' Reward Elasticity and Stability of Competing Proof-of-Work Cryptocurrencies. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ie…

We study strategic dynamics under pairwise interact and imitate (PII), a behavioral rule using minimal information and pairwise comparisons. Using weak tournament graphs, we prove a one-shot stochastic stability result and apply it to Cournot competition, status contests, etc.

The International Economic Review has just published a new exciting paper by Sung-Ha Hwang, Philip R. Neary, Jonathan Newton and Ryoji Sawa on Pairwise Imitation and Tournament Graphs. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ie…

We show that DICE-type climate–growth models feature a continuum of steady states. Delaying optimal climate policy permanently increases peak and steady-state temperatures and the SCC, driven by history dependence in cumulative CO2.

The International Economic Review has just published a new exciting paper by Thomas Steger and Timo Trimborn on The Legacy of Policy Inaction in Climate-Growth Models. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ie…

Does flexible repayment raise moral hazard? Experiment with 645 microcredit borrowers in the Philippines: repayment is high under rigid terms but falls with flexibility; social pressure declines. Consistent with repayment being norm-driven – and norms weakening under flexibility.

The International Economic Review has just published a new exciting paper by Kristina Czura, Anett John and Lisa Spantig on Flexible Contract, Flexible Morale? Microcredit Design and Repayment Discipline. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ie…

This paper develops a search model with buy-to-let investors. The model displays increasing price-to-rent and matches the investor share and housing price increase of a housing boom. Increased rental demand induces more investors, amplifying search frictions in the sales market.

The International Economic Review has just published a new exciting paper by Erlend Eide Bø on Buy to Let: The Role of Rental Investors in Housing Booms. It is available through @WileyEconomics here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ie…