Rory Jolmston
78 posts
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Crude prices continue to spiral upward, temporarily breaking back above $100/bbl as the Iran War escalated and the Houthis more directly joined the conflict with a “maritime blockade” on Saudi Arabia.
Summary below, link to full report in reply.
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“I want oil prices to make sense and to not drive a minivan”
Monkey paw: runaway fuel price spike and a Suburban
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Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston
Kicking off fam trip to Nova Scotia, and this time I flew with everyone and rented a car (normally I drive car/cargo from Toronto) Wife planned to “try out” a minivan rental Just picked up car and agent informed me that they’re all out of vans—can only offer me a Suburban 😏
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I'm personally shocked that the Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed for the better part of FIVE MONTHS and crude prices are above $100/bbl.
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Trump is disappointed in the Houthis and serving TRUTH
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Brent crude futures curve doing the cobra
today (white), week ago (blue), month ago (orange)
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Reuters: "Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen said on Thursday they struck two Saudi oil tankers as part of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia"
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"Iran is begging [for a deal] every day," says US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
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My base case for Chinese crude import demand next month is more or less Chinese crude import demand over the past month—down ~5 MMbpd vs Dec-Feb pre-war average.
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From a [way-too-high] $7.15/bbl premium to Oman/Dubai to a $4.35/bbl discount.
Reuters@Reuters
Iran cuts price of August light crude to Asia reut.rs/4fh1HGb reut.rs/4fh1HGb
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Prompt Brent crude timespreads back at their most backwardated since May 20
More backwardation = tighter market and more economic incentive for inventories to commercial inventories to draw down
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it's always bridges and powerplants and never pipelines, oilfields, and loading terminals
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