Iran Observatory

U.S. strikes in southern Iran amid negotiations in Doha The U.S. military announced that the United States has launched strikes on targets in southern Iran, as top Iranian negotiators gather in Qatar for talks aimed at reaching a peace agreement with Washington. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that it carried out these “self-defense strikes” to protect U.S. troops from threats posed by Iranian forces. Analysts, notably those cited by Al-Jazeera, believe these strikes may have been carried out to gather intelligence in the area near the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in the day, Iranian media reported explosions in the port city of Bandar Abbas, also in the south of the country. Nevertheless, talks in Qatar are continuing. Senior Iranian officials have traveled to Qatar to try to resolve major points of disagreement regarding a potential agreement aimed at ending the war against Iran. According to reports yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati are part of the delegation visiting Doha. Earlier, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei had stated that progress had been made in the talks, but warned that significant differences remained and that an agreement was not yet “imminent.” #Iran

Islamic Republic's negotiators have arrived in Qatar. Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati have arrived in Qatar to discuss the “most sensitive unresolved issues” in order to reach a memorandum of understanding with the United States. Earlier today, Donald Trump stated regarding the negotiations with the Islamic Republic that any agreement reached must be “comprehensive and significant”; otherwise, no agreement will be reached. The U.S. president also wrote in a lengthy post on “Truth Social” that negotiations with the Islamic Republic are “progressing well,” while emphasizing that any potential agreement with Tehran must lead to the expansion of the “Abraham Accords” in the Middle East. He reportedly told the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan that “ it should be mandatory for all these countries, at a minimum simultaneously, to sign the Abraham Accords” in order to normalize their relations with Israel following the signing of an agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran, suggesting that the latter also be a party to this agreement. #Iran

The resolution on “connectivity to the international Internet” is “awaiting Pezeshkian's approval” before it can be implemented Internal sources in Iran have reported the adoption of a new resolution regarding connection to the international Internet, a resolution that has not yet been implemented and whose implementation depends on the final approval of Massoud Pezeshkian as well as its transmission to the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology. The exact details of this resolution — including the level of connectivity, the implementation timeline, and whether this decision entails a full return to the international internet or merely reduces some of the restrictions — have not yet been announced. The special committee for the organization of cyberspace was recently established by decree of Pezeshkian and entrusted to his first vice president, Aref. The committee’s first major decision is being announced at a time when, simultaneously, reports indicate a decline in activity by the Supreme Council of Cyberspace. #Iran

The Islamic Republic is not scaling back its military presence The Iran Observatory reports on eyewitness accounts and images coming from inside Iran. According to some sources, military convoys belonging to the Iranian regime were spotted a few days ago passing through the city of Kermanshah in western Iran, as Tehran continues to strengthen and consolidate its military presence in the region. #Iran

The United States has imposed sanctions on a diplomat from the Islamic Republic in Lebanon. The United States has imposed sanctions on nine individuals whom it accuses of enabling Hezbollah to “undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty” and of being guilty of “obstructing the peace process in Lebanon and hindering the disarmament” of Hezbollah. Among those sanctioned is the Islamic Republic’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mohammad Reza Sheibani. On March 24, the Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs also announced that Lebanon was revoking the accreditation of the Iranian ambassador, Mohammad Reza Shibani, and issued an ultimatum ordering him to leave the country and step down from his post by Sunday, March 29. Among those on the U.S. sanctions list are also two security officials from the Amal Movement, an ally of Hezbollah: Ahmad Asaad Baalbaki and Ali Ahmad Safawi. There are also four members of Hezbollah, including Mohamed Abdel-Mottaleb Fanich, a leader of Hezbollah’s executive council; Nizammeddine Fadlallah, one of the group’s elected members in the Lebanese parliament; and longtime officials Ibrahim al-Moussawi and Hussein Al-Hajj Hassan, according to the U.S. Treasury. Finally, two security officials—Samir Hamadi, a branch chief of the Lebanese Armed Forces, and Khattar Nasser Eldin, a senior official in the General Security Directorate According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, these individuals allegedly “abused” their positions. #Iran

A framework agreement has been reached between the United States and the Islamic Republic, but a final agreement is not imminent. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated: “We have reached a conclusion on most of the issues discussed. That is correct, but it does not mean that the signing of an agreement is imminent. " He also stated that the negotiations are primarily focused on ending the war and, at this stage, we are not addressing the details of the nuclear issue. According to him, “if the agreement were finalized, certain details of the memorandum and other issues, including the nuclear issue, would be negotiated at a later date within 60 days.” #Iran

Iran's Chief negotiator ee-elected speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Islamic Republic's Parliament (Majles), has been re-elected for the seventh consecutive year, according to the Iranian news agency Fars. Mohammad Ghalibaf was also among the lead negotiators in talks aimed at ending the war between the Islamic Republic and the United States, with Pakistan acting as mediator. #Iran

Anwar Gargash: “The Islamic Republic's nuclear program is now our top concern” The diplomatic adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates stated that, once the Islamic Republic is capable of using any weapon at its disposal, its nuclear program shifts from being our second or third concern to our primary concern. Anwar Gargash clarified that his country desires a political solution to the current crisis in the region, but fears “that a political solution could itself lead to new complications in the region.” He also noted that “any control over the Strait of Hormuz would set a very dangerous precedent, and that such control would become politicized in the hands of the Iranian government.” #Iran

Threats in the Strait of Hormuz remain at a critical level. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Agency stated that threats in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and Middle Eastern waters remain at a “critical” level. The organization, which provides maritime security information and threat alerts to commercial vessels, said in a statement that maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz had continued to “decline significantly” over the past 48 hours. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Agency added that disruptions to satellite navigation systems and the risk of sea mines are major concerns in the Middle East. Regarding the situation in the Arabian Sea and the Sea of Oman, the agency also noted that activities related to the naval blockade are underway. On the orders of U.S. President Donald Trump, U.S. forces are preventing ships from entering and leaving Iranian ports as part of a naval blockade of the Islamic Republic. #Iran

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who is visiting Iran, to discuss the latest proposals aimed at ending the war and the ongoing disagreements between the United States and Iran, according to Iranian media. #Iran

The European Parliament adopts a resolution on the human rights situation in Iran. Meeting in plenary session on Thursday, May 21, the European Parliament voted on a resolution concerning the “repression and executions of protesters, dissidents, political prisoners, and religious minorities in Iran.” MEPs express their solidarity with the Iranian people, who are “facing the largest massacre of protesters in the country’s history.” They strongly condemn the death penalty as a deterrent to political mobilization and call for its abolition. MEPs deplore the secret execution of dissidents in March and April, including minors, and call on the Iranian authorities to immediately release all political prisoners. The Parliament calls on the European Union to further expand sanctions against Iranian officials involved in the crackdown, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and entities linked to the Supreme Leader. MEPs believe that members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and their close family members should be barred from entering the EU. “Member States should close Iranian diplomatic missions associated with transnational repression and implement all existing sanctions,” MEPs state. They also call on the EU and its partners to provide Iranians with the tools needed to ensure safe and secure internet access for the population, which is suffering from an imposed blackout. #Iran

Marco Rubio described the ongoing negotiations with the Islamic Republic as “positive.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the ongoing negotiations with the Iranian regime as positive, stating that progress had been made in this regard, but emphasizing that “other options remain on the table if no agreement is reached.” On Thursday, May 21, Mr. Rubio confirmed the possibility of a visit by the Chief of Staff of the Pakistani Army, Asim Munir, to Tehran in the coming hours, noting that the U.S. president’s preference was to reach a “good agreement” with the Iranian regime, but that if the agreement desired by the United States were not concluded, “other options” would be available. He described the current Iranian government system as “completely dysfunctional” and stated: “The Islamic Republic’s insistence on charging ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz will block the diplomatic path and make it impossible to reach an agreement.” For his part, the U.S. president emphasized that Washington remains determined to halt the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, adding, “On the issue of Iran, we are finally reaching a conclusion.” #Iran

The gradual erosion of relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Gulf states. Anwar Gargash, senior advisor to the President of the United Arab Emirates, asserts that certain actions by the Islamic Republic of Iran in recent years have led to a decline in trust among the countries of the Persian Gulf region. He explained that “the countries of the region have for many years been confronted with the coercive and threatening behavior of the Islamic Republic; behavior that has become a component of the political reality of the Persian Gulf.” Mr. Gargash also emphasized that the gap between the Iranian government’s radical positions and its purported declarations of friendship has led to a loss of trust and credibility, “and today, following the brutal aggression, the Islamic Republic is attempting to consolidate a new reality born of an obvious military defeat; but the attempt to control the Strait of Hormuz or to infringe upon the maritime sovereignty of the United Arab Emirates is nothing more than a fantasy and unattainable dreams.” #Iran

The Islamic Republic has justified the internet shutdown as a “security measure.” Ali Yazdikhah, vice-chairman of the Parliament’s Cultural Commission, stated that under the current circumstances, no decision has been made to restore access to the global internet and that the restrictions will continue due to “security considerations.” He attributed the global internet shutdown to resolutions by the Supreme National Security Council and asserted that this decision was made due to “security concerns, the security of the country, and the preservation of people’s lives.” Although NetBlocks reported that the internet shutdown in Iran has entered its 83rd day, Yazdikhah stated that more than 90% of citizens’ needs “are being met in the current situation” and that, in his view, there are no “massive requests to protest the internet shutdown.” " He also noted that as part of the project called “Internet Pro,” more than one million people have so far gained access ; a project that critics view as an example of class-based and discriminatory internet access, as it limits access to the global internet to specific groups and deprives ordinary citizens of their equal right to free internet access. #Iran

The Iranian Association of General Practitioners has issued a report on medicine shortages, job insecurity, and access to healthcare. The president of the Iranian Association of General Practitioners reported receiving reports regarding shortages or limited access to certain medications over the past few months. According to him, this situation already existed before the state of war and has continued with the intensification of economic and logistical restrictions. Ahmad Valipour announced that these shortages have been observed primarily in the areas of certain antibiotics, medications for chronic patients, serums, and medical supplies. Referring to the pressure on the drug supply chain due to economic problems, restrictions on the import of raw materials, and the pharmaceutical industry’s lack of liquidity, he emphasized the need for concrete action. Valipour also addressed the situation of general practitioners and stated that, contrary to popular belief, many of them—particularly in the public sector and underserved areas—face livelihood challenges and a lack of long-term job security despite heavy responsibilities, continuous on-call duties, and a high patient volume. Emphasizing the role of general practitioners as the first line of defense in the healthcare system, he warned against the weakening of this group’s position and its consequences for the public’s access to healthcare services. #Iran

CENTCOM : Route of 94 vessels diverted during the blockade. The United States Central Command, CENTCOM, announced on Thursday, May 21, that US forces, in the ongoing enforcement of the blockade against the Islamic Republic, diverted the route of 94 commercial vessels and disabled four other vessels. #Iran

Impact of the war on trade between Islamic Republic of Iran and the European Union New data from the European Union’s statistical agency show a dramatic drop in EU trade with Iran in March, the first month of the joint military operation by the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic. Germany, Iran’s largest trading partner within the European Union, exported less than 25 million euros worth of goods to Iran in March, representing nearly a third of the levels recorded in the pre-war months. Exports from Italy, Iran’s second-largest trading partner, also saw a nearly similar decline, falling below 10 million euros. Exports from France and Austria to Iran, meanwhile, plummeted to one-fifth of pre-war levels. Iran’s exports to the European Union also declined in March, but not as sharply as the drop in its imports from the EU. Last year, Iran exported €750 million worth of goods to the European Union and imported €2.7 billion worth from it. #Iran

The twenty Iranian sailors from the ship seized by the U.S. are returning to Tehran. Twenty Iranian sailors who were aboard a ship seized by the United States—as part of the naval blockade in place since early April—have returned to Tehran from Islamabad, according to the Iranian news agency IRNA. “This release was made possible after intensive consultations between the Iranian foreign minister and his Pakistani and Singaporean counterparts,” the report adds. The U.S. military announced on Wednesday, May 20, that it had boarded an Iranian-flagged oil tanker the previous day in the Gulf of Oman, on suspicion that it was attempting to circumvent the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. #Iran

Mojtaba Khamenei insists on keeping enriched uranium within the country Reuters reported, citing two high-ranking Iranian sources, that Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered that the Islamic Republic’s enriched uranium reserves not leave the country; a stance that complicates one of the United States’ key demands in the negotiations. According to the report, Israeli officials told Reuters that the President of the United States assured Israel that the stockpiles of highly enriched uranium would be removed from the country and that any peace agreement must include such a clause. One of the Iranian sources indicated that Khamenei’s decision and the consensus within the Islamic Republic’s leadership are to keep the enriched uranium stocks within the country. According to these sources, senior officials in the Islamic Republic fear that the removal of these materials would make the regime more vulnerable to future attacks by the United States and the Israeli military. One of the options being considered is the dilution of these reserves under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); a solution that, according to one of the sources, could remain on the table as a viable option. #Iran

The Islamic Republic executed two people this morning. The judiciary of the Islamic Republic executed two prisoners accused of belonging to “separatist terrorist groups” and of “armed rebellion through the formation of criminal groups.” The official organ of the Iranian judicial system, Mizan, identified the two individuals as Ramin Zalleh and Karim Marouf-Pour, and reported that they were executed on the morning of Thursday, May 21 (31 Ordibehesht). Mizan specified that Ramin Zalleh, “after undergoing training courses, had been tasked by the splinter group with participating in the country’s unrest as a leader.” The official organ of the Iranian judiciary also reported that these two individuals had “confessed” to having “collaborated” with one another “to assassinate the commander of an IRGC base in one of the western counties of the country” and that they possessed “weapons” for this purpose. Since the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Islamic Republic has increased the application of death sentences, adding the right to sentence individuals based on their participation in the January “DeyMah” protests, and has also executed several people. #Iran