Raptor
29.1K posts
Raptor
@IRaptorI
tech and crypto enthusiast, sometimes regulations and blockchain forensic. writing pastas https://t.co/IIJLRIOJQj
Katılım Ağustos 2014
1K Takip Edilen3K Takipçiler
Les socialistes sont des gens amusants, si je puis dire 🙄
Français
Remember, they told us their plans
1) Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
2) Guide reproduction wisely improving fitness and diversity.
3) Unite humanity with a living new language.
4) Rule passion, faith, tradition and all things with tempered reason.
5) Protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts.
6) Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court.
7) Avoid petty laws and useless officials.
8) Balance personal rights with social duties.
9) Prize truth, beauty, love seeking harmony with the infinite.
10) Be not a cancer on the earth, Leave room for nature, Leave room for nature.
English
Raptor retweetledi
Imagine the Iran war lasts 4 years.
- Not a blitz.
- Not regime change.
- Not a clean victory.
Something closer to Russia-Ukraine:
- a slow war of attrition,
- a drone-sealed buffer zone,
- constant strikes,
- no decisive territorial movement,
and oil stabilized around $200.
What happens next?
1/
The war stops being about “winning.”
It becomes a contest of endurance:
- which state can absorb more economic pain,
- replace more drones,
- repair more infrastructure,
- and keep society psychologically numb longer.
2/
- The battlefield turns into a dead zone.
- Drones patrol everything.
- Convoys are visible.
- Armor becomes a target.
- Bases, ports, radar, energy sites, and logistics hubs get hit again and again.
Movement exists, but mass maneuver dies.
3/
Oil at $200 doesn’t just hurt drivers.
It rewires the entire global economy.
Shipping, fertilizer, plastics, aviation, food, power, insurance, manufacturing:
- everything reprices higher.
Inflation comes back with a military escort.
4/
- Europe gets hit again.
- Asia gets squeezed hard.
- Importers bleed.
Emerging markets start breaking at the edges:
- currencies weaken,
- subsidy burdens rise,
- trade deficits widen,
- political anger builds.
5/
- Gulf security doctrine changes permanently.
- Every refinery, terminal, desalination plant, port, and data center becomes a frontline asset.
- Defense spending explodes.
- Drone defense becomes as basic as air defense.
6/
- The U.S. stays involved even if it says it wants out.
- Because a 4-year Iran war is not a regional war.
- It is a global pricing mechanism,
- a naval security problem,
- an inflation problem,
- and a credibility test all at once.
7/
- Russia and China adapt, not necessarily by entering the war directly,
but by exploiting the distraction.
- Moscow benefits from a world addicted to conflict pricing.
- Beijing studies every missile, drone corridor, sanction gap, and supply-chain fracture.
8/
The biggest loser may be the middle class globally.
A long war with $200 oil means:
- higher food,
- higher transport,
- higher electricity,
- higher rates,
- weaker consumption,
- and another era of “temporary” emergency economics that never feels temporary.
9/
And after 4 years?
- Maybe the map barely changes.
- Maybe no one truly wins.
But the world that comes out of it is more militarized,
- more inflationary,
- more surveillance-heavy,
- more energy-insecure,
- and much less globalized than the one that went in.
That’s the real nightmare scenario:
- not World War III in one week,
- but a new normal of permanent attrition.
That kind of war doesn’t need dramatic breakthroughs.
- It only needs enough drones,
- enough money,
- enough hate,
- and enough oil shock to keep going.
English
Raptor retweetledi
Even if the war ends TODAY, full Gulf oil & gas restoration will take:
• Oil shipping: 1-2 weeks
• Production: 2-8 weeks (most back in 2 months)
• LNG: 3-5+ YEARS (Qatar damage is bad)
Full exports to all countries? 3-6+ months minimum.
Oil prices stay high even after ceasefire:
Brent likely $90–120+ through mid-2026.
Why? Lingering tightness + damaged facilities.
Pre-war $75–80 current $100+.
Prices only drop hard once Gulf flows exceed demand.
Economic ripple effects (post-war):
• Global inflation +0.5–1.5%
• Higher fuel, food, transport costs
• GDP drag 0.2–0.6% (Asia/Europe hit hardest)
• Stagflation risk central banks may delay rate cuts.
If war drags on:
+1 month $110–130 oil
+2 months $130–150
+6 months $150+ (recession risk)
+1 year deep global stagflation & 2%+ GDP loss
Longer more damage, slower recovery.
Quick end still means months of pain. Prolonged war means 1970s-style energy crisis.
Fomocap@fomocapdao
Iran Pause Probability • War Day 10+: Hormuz closed, Gulf output down. • Energy Crisis: Oil ~$85–92, Europe gas storage critically low (25%). Japan (90%+ Gulf oil) has 8mo reserves. • Trump-Xi Summit: March 31–April 2 in Beijing China demands ceasefire; both sides need stability. Full ceasefire harder, but prices & shortages will force de-escalation.
English
Raptor retweetledi
EARTH’S FREQUENCY JUST BROKE INTO MULTIPLE SIGNALS ⚡️
In the last 10 hours, the Schumann Resonance didn’t just spike… it split.
Multiple bands lit up at once.
Layered frequencies filled the background.
Not a clean burst — but overlapping signals moving through Earth’s natural frequency at the same time.
Saturation across multiple levels. Abrupt. Unusual.
Is this coming from above… or interacting from within?
👇 Anything feeling off where you are?
#MrMBB333 #schumannresonance
English
Raptor retweetledi
Grok Think Tank 🫡
Iran War Projections: If US-Israel Conflict Persists to September 2026
Commodities (Sustained Disruption Scenario)
• Oil: to $100–120+ (Hormuz blockade cuts 20% global supply); inflation spike, recession risk in Europe/Asia.
• Natural Gas: European >100 EUR/MWh; Asian LNG +45–100%; energy crisis redux.
• Gold: New all-time highs as ultimate safe haven (+20–30%+ from current surge).
• Bitcoin: Volatile short-term dip (risk-off), then rally as inflation/digital-gold hedge in prolonged war.
China/Russia Military Involvement
• Diplomatic fury + UNSC pushes now; no direct troops (WW3 avoidance).
• Russia: Arms/intel/cyber ramp-up to Iran; diverts US from Ukraine.
• China: Covert tech/oil buys; strategic restraint but deeper “no-limits” axis ties.
Europe
• Naval/air deployments to guard shipping + energy crisis (gas prices explode).
• Unified calls for ceasefire + diplomacy; strained US alliance, domestic protests.
• Reputation: Seen as sidelined; economic pain fuels populist backlash.
Gulf Countries
• Direct hits (UAE/Saudi/Bahrain/Kuwait) force defensive unity with US/Israel.
• Economic damage + refugee risks; Saudi Aramco-style shutdowns.
• Relations shift: Accelerated anti-Iran bloc, possible formal Israel ties.
Relations + Reputation Damage
• US/Israel: Global South backlash (aggressor narrative); Muslim-world isolation grows.
• Iran: Regime weakened internally but gains martyr status short-term.
• Overall: US credibility hit if war drags (Trump “weeks not years” promise fails).
New Alliances
• Strengthened US-Gulf-Israel-Kurdish axis (regime-change support).
• Russia-China-Iran “resistance” bloc deepens (arms/tech).
• Potential Turkey neutrality fractures; BRICS energy realignment.
Support for Shia
• Hezbollah/Houthis/Iraqi militias rally short-term but exhaust resources.
• Long-term: Shia axis fragments if Iran collapses; legitimacy loss vs Sunni Gulf.
Geopolitics
• Middle East power vacuum/redrawn map (weaker Iran = Saudi/Israel dominance).
• US distracted → China gains in Taiwan/Indo-Pacific.
• Global energy/security realignment; risk of wider war or Iranian civil strife by Sep.
English
Raptor retweetledi
The shadow president of the United States, Peter Thiel, has sold all of his stock holdings except $PLTR.
A little strange don't you think?
Financelot@FinanceLancelot
Now what is Peter Thiel doing in a private meeting in Japan? 🤔 P.S. Thiel has now liquidated all of his stock holdings, including $AAPL. He now owns zero shares in any company.
English
@joshnomics @2Stoned2GoHome Thank you Josh. Found it was jinx b4 innit.
Hope all is well by you and family Josh, bless you!
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