Knight

Let’s go Osaka

@aleabitoreddit お疲れ様です！もう休んで！

Wow, names like $TOWA (6315) are super boring to watch… Especially since KR/TW markets are closed today. Only up ~11% so far. But like Hammond or Tower Semi… Towa seems like a pretty steady compounder up throughout the duration of new memory cycles. Bc it receives unavoidable capex inflows from $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung their monopoly status. At least Enplas has some volatility… (, they grew their AI test segment 225%+ operating profit y/y) Then "Mass production of lenses for 1.6T optical transceivers has launched." Pretty sure they’re sandbagging + have legacy drag confusing algorithms regarding AI segment acceleration. Good time to take a break from watching markets I guess.

⠀ THE FIRST TAKE ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ OUT "FRIDAY" ⠀ ⠀ 22:00 ▶︎ TheFirstTake.lnk.to/YouTube ・ @Cho_KaguyaHime ・ #THEFIRSTTAKE

@StormDirac Thanks for the update sir!

@IkaKnight_ 13.00 is the correct time

For all our none Swedish people, not use to Stockholm Nasdaq. Opening hours: today Thursday half day and tomorrow Friday closed. Happy long weekend everyone.

@aleabitoreddit Great buying opportunity amidst some short term profit taking.

$LPK / $LPKFF earnings are out. Seeing a lot of very dumb commentary on X. If you're wondering how to analyze qualification-cycle players, it's the same as $AEHR. Nobody cares about current earnings unless there's something extremely bad. If your revenue declines -8M euros before any volume ramp, it doesn't mean anything. The only reason why LPKF is a long anyway is 2027 LIDE glass core substrate mass production. Main thing to look at is earnings call in 2 hours not current financials and indication of high volume production + customers. People made this same mistake with $AEHR selling off on previous financials instead of listening to the call.

@aleabitoreddit You are doing some insane work! Really appreciate you

Just a PSA: (I normally try to stay on topic) But I get like 50-100 new message requests a day... I try my best to respond to all your direct messages, but it's really hard to keep up. So sending follow ups does push it to the top if there's something urgent or I missed a reply. I do try and read all the comments though (esp. since I need to remove a lot of the fake account replies nowadays)

Oh my goodness $SIVE

@aleabitoreddit Strange dump after you posted 😂

Fun fact, $SIVE just crossed the $1B MC threshold. So a select few US institutions are able to buy it now (fund mandates) However, the vast vast majority still can’t until they get listed on NASDAQ. Just an FYI: $1B valuations are spare change for institutional investors in US hyperscaler supply chains if they end up powering $JBL, $AMD, $AAPL, $AMZN, $MSFT and others. Just look at $LWLG, $1.9B MC off 1 testing agreement with $TSEM.

@aleabitoreddit Looking to DCA in to this over the year!

I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research! A stronger international shareholder base is always positive. As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like: 1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR 2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation. 3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless. $SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers. So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial. Just some interesting things to back that up: -> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others. -> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program. -> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling. $NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow. Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028. I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like. As for why I think it's a good long: -> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations. -> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations -> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027. Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices. Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA. Many many years of development, finally coming to fruition next year. I personally think markets are missing something big here, that the public uncovers over time with mapping hyperscaler relationships, website digging, or presentation slides. Hyperscalers suppliers don't randomly choose a $1B Swedish laser company for no reason. The direct contract with $JBL was the biggest signal of that. And it’s my high conviction long moving forward.

夜桜きれいすぎ🌸

Anyhoo, let's do it. Giveaway time! Just follow this account and repost this post for a chance to win a Cleatprint Plaque or 5,640 carats! 🥕 Details: umamusume.com/news/200010/ (It'd be a drag to list all the deets here, so just go read 'em on the site.) #GolshiWeek #Umamusume

@do_do_dooon This is a banger

‘なぜ？謎？！ANSWER × NOTHING BEATS A JET2 HOLIDAY (mashup)’ is on #SoundCloud on.soundcloud.com/HIi05RsmUGBq58… 名探偵プリキュア！でフロアを解き明かそう！(Free DL)

@jukan05 He is the next SK Hynix

These days, I think surviving as a content creator has become incredibly tough. Dude, you’re now competing for views against people who manufacture DRAM in their own houses. youtu.be/h6GWikWlAQA?si…

@aleabitoreddit You are doing God's work! Thanks for being here!

Appreciate the X revenue sharing program! I actually end up passing it along to local charities I like, but don't normally share. I'm especially a big fan of local pet shelters, since my dog passed away last year and I'm still not completely over it. And addressing homelessness too, since I did make a lot of homeless friends back at UC Berkeley. At a certain point, you don't need more money. But it does help maximize the positive impact you can have, which is why I'm still on X (and not retiring, which I can do). It just feels fulfilling to live an honest life, be true to yourself, and see how much of a positive change you can make in this world before you go? My goal on X has always been how to help the retail investor the most... compared to traditional models of selling every single piece of alpha to institutions first. Actions speak louder than words, hence why subscriptions are $1 and I publish all my ideas/thought process for free to everyone here (even though I could charge $50). So people can do what I do themselves when I leave one day! In terms of next steps, I thought it would be fun if retail had the exact same edge as Citadel and the other hedge funds? So I was planning on releasing custom LLMs for free (I was a research scientist in the past you know) and using the extra subscription revenue to subsidize compute/data costs. Think it will be fun!

@aleabitoreddit Guess I'll thank the Swedes for the beautiful dip for me to add

I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point. That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to: -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT -> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS. Then they go crying even further... When someone shows $AAPL is secret hyperscaler customer of Sivers lasers for their next-gen Apple Watch development (which requires 50,000,000 units annually). Does supplying to hyperscalers... Hurt locals's feelings that much to the point they try and self-destruct? It's hilarious that a "Swedish professional" went out and said CPO is nothing new and nothing special, so Sivers is nothing special. Meanwhile $NVDA is just funding every CPO program $2B from $MRVL to $LITE to $COHR left and right. Cool thing about X is you learn something new every day interacting with global audiences.

@jukan05 High-NA EUV works now?

Were Jensen Huang and C.C. Wei wrong when they said that TSMC’s technology cannot be copied just because a few people leave the company? Intel 14A seems to be ramping much better than I had expected.

@jukan05 Easy dip buy

Nittobo fell today after a China-sourced rumor of unclear origin spread, claiming that the Japanese earthquake would force glass fiber maker Nitto Boseki to suspend production for 20–25 days.

@LawrenceWongST Can make into public holiday? I’m sure the whole of Singapore would enjoy reading!

On this World Book Day, I encourage everyone to keep reading, learning, and discovering something new!

@Han_Akamatsu @michys85 Highly doubt that but happy to be proven wrong

@michys85 At least $40s.

$BMNR Bullish Crossover on the 1W HMA. One of the best bullish crossovers there. Above $25 this thing can run fast. ⏳

@jukan05 Memory Shield

LMAO, this came from OpenAI's chip patent. What the hell is this thing? Sama is trying to buy up all our memory