MFW

2.5K posts

MFW

MFW

@ImDecodingLife

Decoding Economics / Trades Not Financial Advice

Katılım Haziran 2017
3.3K Takip Edilen219 Takipçiler
MFW
MFW@ImDecodingLife·
@FinEconGlobal You cut the head of the hydra and you have no off-ramp.
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MFW@ImDecodingLife·
@BlackScholesMan Good play especially after pullback! I think $BTU coal has a lot of upside potential, cheap and plentiful!
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Mike
Mike@BlackScholesMan·
Bought $EE - All of this LNG, assuming they can find some which is the risk to this thesis, that is getting a bid will need to be de-gasified on the other side
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MFW@ImDecodingLife·
$BTU coal is the play! It will take 2-3 years for LNG to prewar levels and the war isnt over.
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MFW
MFW@ImDecodingLife·
@No1Ticks @BlackScholesMan What’s most disconcerting is the daily mixed messaging, no clarity on anything.
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Mike
Mike@BlackScholesMan·
Honestly, this feels 100% like the COVID times. We where hanging on every nuanced statement from POTUS during a Q/A session. I hate it as much now as I did then.
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MFW@ImDecodingLife·
@trentkelp The only fertilizer name pumping is $AGRO
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JEFFERY @TriggeredCapital
big sell on $CF and other fertilizer names...no reason for this sell off....probably a buying oppertunity here.waiting to see what happens.
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MFW@ImDecodingLife·
$AGRO is going to moon with the Iran war and straight closed. They are best positioned to play upside.
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MFW
MFW@ImDecodingLife·
$DE and $KUBTY both up 50% YTD, with shortages in fertilizer farmers won’t have money to buy equipment! major pullback coming!
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David Brody
David Brody@DBrodyReports·
JUST IN: In an exclusive interview with CBN News, Senator Ted Cruz Says Tucker Carlson is specifically targeting evangelical Christians and believes GOP Politicians need to speak out against his venomous ideology. When asked if that includes Vice President JD Vance who is good friends with Carlson, Cruz replied, “Look, everyone's going to have to decide where they stand. Ronald Reagan in 1964 gave a very famous speech, a time for choosing and I think this is a time for choosing.” Senator Cruz and I spent about 40 minutes in his office today discussing the future of the war in Iran, Israel’s role in the war, the venomous ideology of Tucker Carlson, the heresy of replacement theology, the rise of antisemitism and a warning to the Church about it.  A full report will air on The 700 Club Thursday across America, and you can see the entire interview on our CBN News Youtube page Friday. More here. cbn.com/news/politics/… @CBNNews @700club @tedcruz
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MFW@ImDecodingLife·
@trentkelp Would invest but can’t find on my Schwab or Fidelity
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JEFFERY @TriggeredCapital
JEFFERY @TriggeredCapital@trentkelp·
$BUFF.V Could explode 5x-7x from here! On a fully diluted basis, 109.5M shares at C$0.32 implies a market cap of ~C$35M and an enterprise value of ~C$27M (net of C$7.8M cash). Post-PEA, assume a C$30M raise split evenly between project debt and equity at C$0.50/share, issuing 30M new shares for ~140M fully diluted. At 125kt/year and a C$200/t netback, gross operating cash flow is C$25M. After sustaining capex, provincial taxes and royalties (~C$6M), free cash flow could be approx. C$19M. At a 6x multiple - a discount to established producers reflecting single-asset and technology risk - that implies C$114M enterprise value, or ~C$0.71/share after netting debt: a 2.2x return from current levels. Scale to 250kt/year (funded by offtake partner, no incremental dilution) and FCF roughly doubles to ~C$42M. At the same multiple, equity value reaches ~C$237M, or C$1.69/share - a 5.3x return with no change in potash prices. The table below stress-tests across three scenarios varying netback (C$150–250/t), FCF conversion, and valuation multiple (5–7x): open.substack.com/pub/claddist/p…
JEFFERY @TriggeredCapital tweet mediaJEFFERY @TriggeredCapital tweet mediaJEFFERY @TriggeredCapital tweet media
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MFW@ImDecodingLife·
$TSSI breaking out to fill $15 gap!
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