TheAnalyst

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IRAN HAS NO PLANS FOR NEW ROUND OF TALKS WITH US: FARS NEWS

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: The talks reportedly hit a wall. And it's the one everyone saw coming. Iran wants authority over Hormuz. The U.S. wants it open and free. Those two positions don't have a middle. Everything else in Islamabad was paperwork. This is the actual war. Source: CGTN

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Trump: "Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out - 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD!"

Who made this lmao

🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. intelligence just confirmed what the markets already knew: Hormuz isn't opening anytime soon... Multiple intelligence reports warn that Iran will hold the Strait because it's the only leverage keeping Tehran in the game. Former CIA Director Bill Burns said Iran now sees Hormuz as "much more potent than even a nuclear weapon." The war designed to strip Iran of its power accidentally gave it the most consequential strategic weapon on earth: a hand on the valve of 20% of global oil supply. Iran isn't holding Hormuz out of desperation. It's holding it because the math works. High energy prices pressure Trump politically. Passage fees fund reconstruction. And the threat of permanent disruption guarantees Tehran a seat at any negotiation table. The shipping lane is only two miles wide. One drone can shut it down. Seizing the coastline doesn't solve the problem because Iran can launch from deep inside the country. Even after the war ends, intelligence analysts warn Tehran will keep leveraging the Strait for security guarantees and economic recovery. Source: Reuters

🚨🇫🇷🇮🇷 IRAN'S PLAYING DIVIDE-AND-CONQUER WITH HORMUZ AND IT'S WORKING Iran's got a system: block U.S. ships, let European ones through... but only if those countries stand up to Trump. France crossed today no problem, Spain blocked airspace recently and got rewarded. It's brilliant... and infuriating. They're splitting NATO by making it profitable to oppose Washington. Every European ship that gets through proves you don't need America to keep trade flowing, you just need to not be America. Trump's entire pitch was "they need us for security." Iran just showed Europe they need Trump less than Trump needs them. He's gonna lose his mind and escalate hard, which is exactly what makes this strategy work. The madder he gets, the more Europe distances itself, the less likely he is to end this with a win. Brilliant. And infuriating. Source: CNN World

🇺🇳🇮🇷 The Gulf's plan to force Hormuz open just hit a wall at the UN Russia, China, and France blocked Bahrain's Security Council resolution authorizing military force to reopen the Strait. Three veto-wielding powers said no to any language permitting the use of force. A vote is scheduled for Friday but the math hasn't changed. Macron called Trump's "just go take it" approach "unrealistic," warning it would expose any force to Iranian coastal weapons and ballistic missiles. The most devastating line came from the International Crisis Group: "It treats a political crisis as if it can be solved at gunpoint." The Strait was open before the bombs fell. It closed because of the war. Ending the war reopens it. Everything else is theater. The deeper damage is in the relationships. Qatar and Oman, who mediated between the U.S. and Iran for years, now say ties with Tehran are "probably irreparably damaged." They've handed the mediator role to Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt entirely. Saudi Arabia, which restored diplomatic relations with Iran just three years ago through a China-brokered deal, is now leading the charge against it at the UN. Source: New York Times

Yes, it's true. Dated Brent (the physical crude benchmark) has surged to $141/barrel per reports from KobeissiLetter and Trading Economics—highest since 2008—amid Iran conflict fears disrupting supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures are lower at ~$108–111 today, but the dated physical price reflects the immediate crisis.

🇮🇷 Iran’s Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi: "Iran will soon set transit fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz."

🇨🇳🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 China accuses the U.S. and Israel of “illegal military operations” against Iran as it calls for an ‘immediate’ halt to hostilities. Beijing reacted to Trump’s warning of potential strikes on Iran by urging an immediate ceasefire and a stop to all military operations. But China didn’t stop there. It openly blamed the U.S. and Israel, saying the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz was triggered by their “illegal military operations” against Iran. While China pushes for de-escalation and diplomacy, Trump is telling countries dependent on Hormuz oil to take control of the route themselves as tensions keep rising. Source: alarabiya, The Guardian