DeCaffNoSugar

@capybaraReborn @capybaraReform Capy, they (and probably others) have taken, and continue to take, advantage of you and your followers to dilute the hell out of your investment. What’s your strategy to withstand that? Seriously…

I met with management on the day of the investment. The stuff they’ve told me was downright false. Winston explicitly told me that was the last of the dilution. Instead… The sad thing is both them and shareholders could have gotten what they wanted, now both have failed. I told them multiple times what they were doing made zero sense. It seems ego took over. They know they lost already.

It’s suspect that @capybaraReborn doesn’t keep updating his theses as things progress. Normally the lack of posts indicates it’s a position he sold, trimmed significantly, or he’s given up hope. So what does he still hold? $BYND $FRMM $AQST $KLAR $ORBS $JTAI $DUOL $IREN $STRC

@capybaraReform It’s a busy day for you. I see Capy respects your persistence :))

@InfoUld Capy actually responded on one of my posts! I think that as long as we are both beating returns of SPY, QQQ, or whatever benchmark you personally use - we are off to the races! As long as our DD gets better, skills, discipline, etc- we can make it through any market. 😃

If only $FRMM could have taken similar actions when company was barely trading under intrinsic value. They instead waited til they hit the $1s for a bit. Executives- Be faster and more proactive for your shareholders in the future. They believed in you more than you did. Up 89%

@capybaraReform Easy,just protect yourself with put options. Anyway, my logic is simple: I focus on improving my avr price. I buy when the price is below my avr, and sell when it’s above. It’s a continuous process. I don’t see the point in getting shaken out and selling at a loss. Good luck!

@InfoUld If you realize you bought a loser soon enough, losses are minimal. Like in the JTAI example. Capy invested Jan 13th. Press release about delay was Jan 14th. All of Capy’s fans could have sold green. For BBAI, they said they wanted to authorize up to $1 bil shares. Sold green.

@capybaraReform You never know what the future holds — that’s the key point. In hindsight, an initial entry at 17 and averaging down later at 2–3 would have led to a profitable exit at 5.50. You never know in advance… That’s why I never give up on a position.

@InfoUld The bad news would be a material development that mutes gains for several months or years. Like let’s say FRMM said liquidity.io was backing out or next token item would be $50 mil shipping vessel. I’m out. So many bad earnings reports until they see real revenue.

@capybaraReform You blame yourself and your poor DD. Measure twice, cut once before entering in the first place.

@InfoUld If company situation improves and it’s no longer a delisting risk, then I can feel better about holding. But if the company starts looking like 💩, the company itself, and not just the stock- I’m out. If I realize it soon enough, I’m out before the falling knife.

@capybaraReform Negative trades never lead to profit. And who says your next trade won’t also be negative? That’s how you end up slowly losing capital. It’s better to be wrong on 1 stock and work to improve the position by averaging down, rather than constantly locking in losses and restarting.

@InfoUld I do about 10% to 33% at first depending on what I’m seeing. If headwinds, dilution, or macro weighs heavy on the stock- that’s where I decide if my capital is better used elsewhere (whether green or red). Like instead of tying $ up on a delisting risk, swing a momentum stock

@capybaraReform If I decide I want a specific company and start accumulating, I don’t give up because of bad news. Why? Otherwise, you start losing trust in yourself. I see it as a great opportunity to average down my entry price. Moreover, selling on bad news can often be an overreaction.

@InfoUld Another example is when the company says they have a partnership. Then partnership dissolves. Commercialization efforts halved immediately. I don’t intend to stick around and hope they find another partnership who is same/better. Get out while getting is good to use capital.

@capybaraReform I see your logic. However, I never enter a position at 100% all at once. I stagger my entries over weeks or even months to first confirm the direction.

@InfoUld This would be like for a JTAI situation. I enter thinking a merger is happening imminently. Then next day the company announces it won’t happen for another 3 and a half months. By that point I would realize macro and dilution will kill my position. I’d rather get out/Use capital

@capybaraReform I’d prefer to average down in this case. Why invest in the first place only to reverse course completely and exit? You need to trust your DD, even if the first entry was at a higher price. What’s the point of exiting? That just locks in a loss…same may happen to the next trade.

@InfoUld Biggest thing I’ve learned is to cut losers sooner, especially if the company is not as great as it appeared after initial DD. I would go crazy depending on a company/mgmt team who seemed inept or scammy or too silent. Like with BRK.B; they are just too silent throughout the year

@capybaraReform @capybaraReborn As a result, management take advantage of his strong (and likely well-intentioned) motivation, leading to significant dilution…

@InfoUld @capybaraReborn I think he’s very smart and persuasive. Never read any of his books. But he did start a business or two that still seems profitable? There’s just the Dunning-Kruger effect going on too. He overestimates his ability to read financials and know what an average executive will do

@capybaraReform @capybaraReborn I’m not sure this is a case of the Dunning–Kruger effect. He seems to interpret things very much by the book, as presented in business textbooks, while underestimating potential management inefficiencies and the natural tendency to avoid loss of control.

@capybaraReform Good job! As for me I never go short. If needed I protect with options.

@InfoUld I also like DCA method /keeping a lot of dry powder on the side. Lately I’ve been going more short term swings and DCAing on my longs to just sell batches on them when those batches get green enough. AUR, PL, UAMY, and others have been awesome the past two weeks. Trimmed Friday!

@capybaraReform @capybaraReborn Dilution is a factor he tends to rationalize each time and frame in a more positive light. However, in reality, it is likely to be more damaging over time.

@InfoUld @capybaraReborn For him, he thinks market doesn’t understand anything. Stocks are cheap because no one understands what the company offers. He wishes he could move a stock like Serenity. At least w/ Serenity, the semis/memory/photonics sector is meeting new demand and making new advancements

@capybaraReform @capybaraReborn I have a significant position in BYND. I entered before the well-known Capy squeeze and rode that move. I averaged down into the $0.70s and took some profits this Friday.

@InfoUld @capybaraReborn I think with BYND he is just all talk. He says mgmt should present their turnaround case in a Wall Street understands. Wall Street isn’t stupid enough to need a turnaround plan explained like they are 5 year olds. Their institutional ownership did jump already too.

@capybaraReform @capybaraReborn Reddit folks need simple, clearly articulated messaging to stay committed to holding positions ;)) I agree that BYND’s corporate culture, particularly in terms of investor relations, is poor and rather clumsy.

@capybaraReform I trade in and out using a laddered approach (never buying 100% at once). I don’t rely on miracles. I’m not a passive holder — I actively manage exposure on both the upside and downside. I also stay highly liquid, because no one knows how deep the rabbit hole goes…

@InfoUld It’s incredible you were able to average down at such a good average relatively speaking. So many went heavy above $15 that their position size would have to balloon so much to average down that far.

@capybaraReform @capybaraReborn As You can see yourself, companies he invest big perceive him as a hostile takeover risk.

@InfoUld @capybaraReborn For BYND, he bought ~ 3 mil shares at ~ 1 in January. “It was so peaceful investing at $1”. Then silence or FUD since then. If he doesn’t care about his global claim to fame anymore, something is up. He didn’t try to help $JTAI avoid reverse split. Won’t help $BYND either? Weird

@capybaraReform So I’m still holding, but I remain skeptical given the lack of any board or management changes. I’m also not particularly keen on the new direction tbh.

@InfoUld That push past $5 definitely gave everyone the chance to leave that wanted to at those levels. So there is room to inch up. What if your take on it being so flat in the morning? I expected a steady climb all day. It looks more like shorts covering in afternoon blasted it off