Sahil Khanna

India and Russia are negotiating a free trade agreement, announced by Sergey Glazyev (State Secretary, Union State of Russia-Belarus) at NSE's "From Volga to Ganges" forum in Mumbai. Economies complement each other; structure of trade deal under discussion; common financial markets without barriers. Glazyev highlights India's rising global leadership (with China) amid US capital dominance; world economy shifting to Southeast Asia. Strategic focus: BRICScoin pilot (intergovernmental digital currency), digital national currencies for cheaper integration.

Gold futures fell to $4,588.70/oz (one-month low, down from $5,600 Jan peak); silver to $70.39/oz (from ~$120 high) amid 7th straight gold loss. Iran war crushes rate-cut hopes despite safe-haven status; oil >$100/bbl (Hormuz blockade) fuels inflation fears, ending Fed cut odds (now 0% next month, 1 cut 2026). Stagflation risk: High rates + slow growth hammer zero-yield metals; stronger USD outperforms as safe haven over gold/Treasuries. Silver hit harder (industrial demand crushed); early war safe-haven bid faded after 48hrs as rate repricing dominates.

Meta delayed rollout of "Avocado" AI model to at least May 2026 (from March) due to underwhelming performance in internal tests.​ Model's capabilities currently lag between Google's Gemini 2.5 and Gemini 3, prompting further post-training improvements.​ Delay persists despite Meta's $115-135B capex push for AI/superintelligence, including custom chips and TBD Lab's pre-training completion.​ Meta AI leaders considered licensing Gemini temporarily; originally targeted Q1 after end-2025 shift from late 2025 plans.

NVIDIA launched NemoClaw stack at GTC 2026 for the OpenClaw agent platform, enabling single-command installation of Nemotron models + OpenShell runtime.​ Adds privacy/security guardrails via isolated sandbox; hardware-agnostic (RTX PCs, DGX Station/Spark, cloud); works with any coding agent/open model. OpenShell runtime enforces policy-based controls for autonomous "claws"; developed with OpenClaw creator Peter Steinberger using Agent Toolkit. Enterprise-ready for always-on AI assistants; currently in preview via NVIDIA site/GitHub; deploys self-evolving agents safely across environments.

WTO forecasts global merchandise trade growth slowing to 1.9% in 2026 (from 4.6% in 2025), recovering to 2.6% in 2027. Key risks: West Asia (Iran) war, Strait of Hormuz disruptions (20% world oil), elevated energy prices; downside scenario: 1.4% growth. Services trade moderates to 4.8% (from 5.3%); Gulf as transit hub vulnerable to logistics/travel hits. India exposed: 40% urea imports from Gulf via Hormuz; risks to fertilizers, oil, shipping; but services exports bright spot. AI goods demand offsets some slowdown; Asia drives 71% of 2025 growth; global GDP ~2.8%, weakening trade-output link.

RBI's net short dollar book (forward sales) nears $100B across offshore/onshore markets amid rupee hitting record lows past 92/USD. Up from $67.8B Jan 2026, $88.8B peak Feb 2025; focused on short-dated NDFs (non-deliverable forwards) offshore, buy-sell swaps onshore (incl. 1+ year tenors). FX reserves stable at $717B (Mar 6); interventions steady rupee without depleting reserves, signal policy amid strong USD, US tariffs, equity outflows, Iran war. Risks: Maturing contracts create recurring USD demand, limiting rupee recovery; importer needs add pressure.

Super Micro Computer co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw (VP Business Development), employee Chang, and contractor Ting-Wei "Willy" Sun charged with smuggling NVIDIA GPU servers/HPE supercomputers to China, generating ~$2.5B revenue since 2024.​ Violated US Export Control Reform Act; routed via Southeast Asia intermediaries without Commerce Dept licenses; $510M from Apr-May 2025 sales alone. Liaw holds $464M in Super Micro shares; company not charged but placed individuals on leave, cut contractor ties; stock dropped 12-14% post-indictment. Chang allegedly obstructed auditors, arranged "friendly" reviews for hidden China-shipped servers.

Escalating Iran-US/Israel conflict risks undersea fiber-optic cables in Strait of Hormuz/Red Sea (Bab el-Mandeb), carrying 95-97% global data traffic. Key cables: AAE-1, FALCON, Gulf Bridge, Tata-TGN Gulf; link Asia-Europe-Middle East-Africa; ~17 in Red Sea, several in Hormuz/Persian Gulf. Threats: Sea mines (Hormuz blocked), Houthi attacks (Red Sea), naval ops, anchors—shallow waters (~200ft Hormuz) increase vulnerability. No major disruptions yet; rerouting possible but slows speeds; experts call dual chokepoints "globally disruptive"; firms rerouting/monitoring.

ByteDance paused global launch of Seedance 2.0 AI video model (launched China Feb 2026) due to Hollywood copyright disputes. Viral clips (e.g., Tom Cruise vs Brad Pitt) prompted cease-and-desist from Disney ("virtual smash-and-grab of IP"), Paramount Skydance, Netflix; ByteDance pledged stronger IP safeguards. Mid-March rollout halted while engineers/lawyers address legal risks; model available only in China. TikTok parent now minority shareholder in US TikTok spinoff; aims to avert lawsuits before international expansion.

AI companies like Handshake hiring improv actors for live, unscripted video sessions to train models on human emotions, tones, and natural conversations beyond static data. Actors collaborate via video calls, improvising scenes from light prompts/character notes; pays $74/hour as flexible side gig for creatives. Targets emotional nuance for advanced voice AIs (e.g., ChatGPT 2024 upgrades, xAI's Grok) to sound less robotic and handle real human interactions. Potential impact: More relatable chatbots that detect/respond to user moods, transforming daily tech interactions with natural emotional intelligence.

An oil tanker operator paid Iran ~$2M fee for safe passage through Strait of Hormuz on March 18, 2026, amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict.​ Iran parliament considering bill for transit fees/"security tolls"/taxes on ships using strait for oil/gas/shipping—~20% global supply. Frames as compensation for Iran's "security role"; advisor to supreme leader eyes post-conflict framework to restrict sanctioning nations. No formal charges yet; Iran has disrupted adversarial vessels since Feb 28 conflict start, worsening energy crisis/oil prices (+40%). Strategic leverage; Gulf states warn against; could hike global fuel costs further.

AI Agent Era Has Started, McKinsey Hacked, Jobs at Risk, ChatGPT New Pricing, Nvidia, Meta:Tech News

NSE IPO advisory fees set at 0.65% of ~$2.5B issue size (~₹23,000 crore), totaling $16.25M fee pool for ~20 banks.​ Lead banks: Kotak Mahindra Capital (left lead), JM Financial, Morgan Stanley, HSBC, Citi, JPMorgan get largest shares. Lower than peers: Vs. 1.86% avg (417 IPOs, 2025), 1.67% (350 IPOs, 2024); reflects NSE's cost control as quasi-sovereign issuer. Precedents: LIC (0.58%), NTPC Green (0.54%); SBI paid symbolic ₹1/bank for ₹2,500Cr raise; private IPOs like Hyundai (1.77%) pay more. Strategic prestige: Banks accept modest fees for league table positioning and long-term capital markets foothold, per Uniqus Consultech.

SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won predicts global memory chip shortage persisting 4-5 years until ~2030 due to structural semiconductor constraints.​ Wafer supply lags demand by >20%; affects SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron despite capacity expansions; HBM shift for Nvidia AI accelerators worsens traditional memory gaps.​ SK Hynix preparing price stabilization measures; no US fab plans; considering ADR listing; supply won't match until 2030.​ Shortage rooted in construction/power/water limits for new fabs; industry consensus expects conditions to worsen before improving.

Apple's Mac Mini (M4 model) sold out across China amid "OpenClaw fever"—surge in demand as ideal affordable device to run OpenClaw (open-source AI agent framework) securely on local hardware. Retailers jacking prices +¥500 (~$73) on base model (¥4,499/~$652, 16GB RAM/256GB SSD); Apple Stores wait times >1 month; shortages at Huaqiangbei (Shenzhen electronics hub). OpenClaw craze boosts productivity (e.g., Codoon CEO runs 10+ instances on 3 Mac Minis); preferred for privacy/control vs cloud AI amid China hype for customizable agents. Brief nationwide shortages (~48 hrs mid-Mar 2026) reflect hot AI agent market; total setup costs ~¥10K+ barrier for individuals, but frenzy signals open-source shift.

At BlackRock's 2026 US Infrastructure Summit, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman envisioned AI evolving into a ubiquitous utility like electricity or water, sold via metered tokens for flexible use.​ Model providers will shift to token-based billing; users pay for intelligence on-demand—scaling from simple tasks to billion-dollar problem-solving.​ Comes amid AI's surging energy demands driving data center costs; OpenAI backed out of Texas Stargate expansion over financing hurdles.[query context] Altman previously downplayed AI's water use as "fake" concerns, comparing post-training inference efficiency to human cognition.

India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas notified the Natural Gas (Supply Regulation) Order, requiring all natural gas entities (producers, importers, marketers, distributors) to submit detailed data on production, imports, stocks, allocations, and supplies to PPAC at regular intervals. Priority allocation system amid Middle East LNG disruptions: Priority Sector I (domestic PNG, CNG transport, LPG production, pipeline ops) gets 100% of 6-month average consumption; Sector II (fertilizers) 70%; Sectors III/IV (industry/CGD) ~80%; refineries cut to 65%. Ensures cooking fuel (LPG/PNG), fertilizers, transport (CNG) prioritized during Hormuz/Qatar LNG disruptions; complements LPG rationing and PNG activation drives.

Oil Above $110, Sensex Down 2500, LPG Crisis, Qatar LNG Hit, Hormuz Blocked, HDFC Chairman Quit, Nazara: Business News

Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex, the world's largest facility (~20% global supply), suffered extensive damage from an Iranian missile strike on March 18, 2026.​ One missile hit after four were intercepted; fires contained by emergency teams—no casualties, all personnel accounted for.​ QatarEnergy halted production earlier in March after prior drone attacks; Qatar condemned the "brutal" assault as sovereignty violation.​ Follows Iran's warnings/threats to Gulf energy infrastructure amid US-Israel-Iran conflict escalation.​ Qatar expelled Iranian military attaches; global gas markets tense with prior LNG suspensions.