Invesco US

Investing can feel much the same as the Siren’s songs in the Odyssey to our Global Head of Research, Ben Jones. Odysseus survived the songs because he understood the danger of distraction. Knowing which “Siren song” — like a central bank statement, an oil price move, a geopolitical escalation, an AI headline, or a tariff story — to listen to and which to ignore can help keep investors from the rocks. His key takeaways in this week’s market commentary: ▪️ US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes offered the first fuller glimpse of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy debate under Chair Kevin Warsh. ▪️ AI isn’t just a technology theme. It’s an infrastructure cycle that can be inflationary before becoming productivity-enhancing. ▪️ Issues in the Strait of Hormuz may still impact energy prices, trade, inflation expectations, and risk appetite. Read his latest weekly market commentary. inves.co/4pj9iHL

It’s tempting to draw parallels between today’s market and the late 1990s, especially with Alan Greenspan’s passing and the recent selloff in tech stocks. But Brian Levitt, our Chief Global Market Strategist, doesn’t think the comparison holds up. To him, today’s environment looks healthier and more balanced than the one before the dotcom bust: ▪️ Leadership within technology stocks has shifted to companies benefiting from AI-related investment. To him, that’s a rotation, not a breakdown. ▪️ The rotation isn’t limited to technology. Most companies in the S&P 500 Index have been positive in June and up more than 14% year to date. ▪️ Oil prices have fallen, inflation expectations have declined, and breakevens point to moderation rather than acceleration. Read his latest weekly market commentary. inves.co/4xVuEi8

As a lifelong Knicks fan, years of disappointment conditioned our Chief Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt and other New York fans to anticipate collapse, even as greatness was right in front of them. In hindsight, he realized how good the team was. To him, that feels a lot like the market’s relationship with AI. ▪️ The underlying AI story didn’t change much. What changed was investors’ interpretation of it. For a while, the market viewed AI too narrowly. But the opportunity may be broader with infrastructure, agentic AI, and persistent intelligence becoming part of the economic fabric. ▪️ In addition, simultaneous peaks in oil prices, inflation expectations, and interest rates could create a good macro backdrop for markets. Get more insight in his latest #AbovetheNoise. inves.co/4ajp8vI

The SpaceX IPO was the story investors were watching. The feared “market disruption” didn’t materialize, according to our Chief Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt. The float was too small to meaningfully distort liquidity or sentiment. Whether the valuation makes sense is a stock-specific debate — not a macro signal. The real story, in his view, is still policy: ▪️ Don’t fight the Fed. Volatility is often created by policy uncertainty, and the first rule of central banking is “do no harm.” ▪️ Inflation expectations were relatively contained. Oil prices have been easing. Tightening policy into a strained consumer could risk turning a temporary shock into a policy mistake. That’s why he believes the path of least resistance could still look upward. Read his latest weekly market commentary. inves.co/3QIjHzN

The first half of the year was marked by immense disruption. However, we believe resilience has endured — and provides a favorable investment environment. Our 2026 Midyear Investment Outlook outlines our expectations for a global economic reacceleration, the path of central bank policy, the impact of artificial intelligence, and much more. Read the full outlook here: inves.co/4v9Tw45

The narratives on last week’s stock market downturn seem to be driven by perception, according to our Chief Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt. He doesn’t see the pullback as a sign of structural weakness but more of a reality check: The bar for AI and tech got too high. When expectations soar, even great results can disappoint. Read the latest weekly market commentary. inves.co/43UBBlI

The market advance is too good to be true. Lately, that’s what our Chief Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt has been hearing. His thought: It’s not too good to be true. Here’s his take on the current market: • Strong earnings growth alongside a Federal Reserve that’s on hold can be a constructive combination for markets. • This market cycle will end. It always does. But it typically hasn’t ended with credit spreads tightening and inflation expectations falling. Read his latest weekly market commentary. inves.co/43sdYkB

Rising Treasury yields have revived concerns about the bond market. But our Chief Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt believes this still doesn’t look like the “big one.” Here’s why: ▪️ Higher Treasury yields appeared to reflect a recalibration driven by growth and term premium, not a rupture in confidence in US debt. ▪️ Long-term inflation expectations remained relatively contained despite higher energy prices, suggesting to me that many investors still believe inflation can be managed. ▪️ Markets haven’t shown broad signs of stress, so far. Treasury auctions, the US dollar, credit spreads, and stocks suggest markets have generally absorbed higher rates without a broad disruption. Read the weekly market commentary. inves.co/4u0dlcH

Why can markets move higher even when headlines feel alarming? Our Global Head of Research Benjamin Jones, CFA makes the case that disruption doesn’t automatically mean decline, and looking past scary headlines doesn’t mean markets are irrational. Read the weekly market commentary. inves.co/4nBz1u8

Why have markets moved higher despite ongoing risks? Chief Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt discusses three factors that have helped contribute to a strong fundamental backdrop: 1. Meaningful amount of fiscal support currently in the global system 2. Recent strong corporate earnings 3. US economy continued to show resilience Read the weekly market commentary. inves.co/42AhDMF

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, the S&P 500 Index rose 10.49% in April. Chief Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt explains why and discusses what it could mean most for market returns over the long run. Read the weekly market commentary. inves.co/49aIT80

Last week’s Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh was important. Our Global Market Strategist, Brian Levitt, highlights three key takeaways from it — a combination he believes could be supportive of stocks: ▪️ The importance of Fed independence ▪️ A more nuanced interpretation of inflation ▪️ An interest in reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet Read the weekly market commentary. inves.co/4cyUKz0

As the conflict in the Middle East continues to evolve, some investors may be tempted to try to time the markets in response to good days and bad days. But jumping in and out of the market can erode long-term growth. Chief Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt discusses the cognitive dissonance of long-term investing and the important distinction between markets that are forward-looking and probabilistic rather than reactive and emotional. Read the weekly market commentary. inves.co/4sIVoyA

How will markets react to the conflict in the Middle East? Brian Levitt, our chief global market strategist’s stock answer for the last six weeks: “It depends on the duration of the conflict.” He thinks that may not exactly be the case. Many assumed that if the conflict lasted more than a few weeks, it would be meaningfully negative for risk assets. But markets appear to have absorbed the shock. The S&P 500 Index is now nearly flat since the conflict began in February. It seems markets crave narrative closure more than calendar precision. Are conditions getting better relative to deteriorated expectations? And the bar for relief has been surprisingly low. Even talk of a ceasefire, like we got last week, sustainable or not, has been enough to lift risk sentiment. It appears that investors, particularly after last year’s Liberation Day whipsaw, have shown little appetite for pricing in open-ended worst-case scenarios. Read our latest weekly market commentary: inves.co/41u35xD

Our Chief Global Market Strategist isn’t a military strategist, yet he’s often asked to opine on military conflicts. The current conflict in the Middle East is no exception. He tries to stay focused on interpreting what markets themselves are telling us. Right now, here’s what he’s seeing in his preferred indicators: ▪️ Shifting toward a slowdown. Our short-lived global expansion signal has shifted toward a slowdown. We’re not seeing recessionary readings, but momentum is fading. Tactically, he believes a slowdown environment argues for maintaining stock exposure, but with greater emphasis on quality and more defensive areas of the market. ▪️ Business cycle. Our preferred cyclical indicators are trending in the wrong direction, but they aren’t pointing to disaster. Taken together, a gradual but not meaningful deterioration in cycle indicators suggests that markets still appear to believe in an exit ramp and an eventual resumption of the expansion once near-term uncertainty fades. ▪️ Market bottom. Has the market already found its bottom? Major stock indexes have already corrected. However, based on our preferred market bottom indicators, the answer for now is that the bottom is likely still ahead. Read our latest weekly market commentary. inves.co/4c7WCNv

Expectations for a synchronized global expansion in 2026 have faded as the Middle East conflict increases the probability of a slowdown. But think back to a year ago in the midst of another uncertain time and the historic surge in stocks after President Trump paused his Liberation Day tariffs. So where does that leave us today? • As markets have repriced for slower growth, we favor staying invested, but for the time being have moved back toward an emphasis on higher-quality, larger-cap stocks and US dollar exposure. • Abrupt exits from stocks precisely when markets may be most prone to sharp recoveries may be poor timing. • In uncertain environments, we believe discipline matters more than conviction in any single outcome. Read our latest weekly market commentary. inves.co/4tgYfQ0

The Middle East conflict and oil supply disruption are pressuring markets and testing investor confidence. But no one knows how long the conflict will last. Right now, our preferred economic and market indicators, such as credit spreads, inflation expectations, and rate cut assumptions, have become more challenged, but they aren’t flashing clear warning signs yet. We aren’t sugarcoating the current situation, but believe investors should focus on the long-term. Read our latest market commentary. inves.co/4sbZVdk

For the first two months of the year, Brian Levitt, our Chief Global Market Strategist, was feeling confident about the conclusions in our annual outlook. There’s always the risk of a curveball like Iran and the widening Middle East conflict. ▪️ When geopolitical conflicts emerge, the first thing our strategists do is step back and consider history to establish context. Often, US stock markets have delivered positive returns in the year following major conflicts. ▪️ In the notable instances when they haven’t, the economy was already weak when the conflict began. But today, we believe the US economy remains in a relative position of strength. ▪️No one knows how long the current situation will last, but exposure to oil and other commodities may help hedge the risks of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. ▪️ Our strategists are looking closely for signs of strain in our preferred indicators and reminding ourselves that long-term investing requires sticking with a plan even when the crowd gets nervous. Read our complete weekly market commentary. inves.co/40FjCOV

It’s helpful for investors to remember that for markets, what’s most important isn’t the quantity of news headlines, but whether or not they were expected. ➡️ Tariff decision: Expected. The tariffs that President Trump enacted last year under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were struck down in a 6-3 ruling by the US Supreme Court on Friday. Was that a shock? Not particularly. Our global market strategists now expect the Office of the US Trade Representative to pivot to a plan B. ➡️ US-Iran: Expected. Tensions have been rising between the US and Iran, but this wasn’t a surprise. These risks have been well-signaled for some time. They don’t expect these developments to derail global stock markets or end the business cycle. ➡️ Economic data: Somewhat unexpected. US gross domestic product (GDP) was weaker than expected, and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) somewhat hotter. They’d expect inflation to moderate over time, however, as productivity gains from artificial intelligence become more evident. And they don’t believe this changes the trajectory for the Federal Reserve. Read our complete weekly market commentary. inves.co/4kV2zl4

Using a Super Bowl analogy, it feels like a “heads I win, tails I win” market environment. On one side, weaker growth increases the likelihood of earlier or deeper Federal Reserve (Fed) easing. On the other side, stronger growth reinforces the view that the business cycle remains intact. Either outcome can be supportive of markets, provided inflation stays contained. Read our complete weekly market commentary: inves.co/4tHHm20