Invesco US

The Middle East conflict and oil supply disruption are pressuring markets and testing investor confidence. But no one knows how long the conflict will last. Right now, our preferred economic and market indicators, such as credit spreads, inflation expectations, and rate cut assumptions, have become more challenged, but they aren’t flashing clear warning signs yet. We aren’t sugarcoating the current situation, but believe investors should focus on the long-term. Read our latest market commentary. inves.co/4sbZVdk

For the first two months of the year, Brian Levitt, our Chief Global Market Strategist, was feeling confident about the conclusions in our annual outlook. There’s always the risk of a curveball like Iran and the widening Middle East conflict. ▪️ When geopolitical conflicts emerge, the first thing our strategists do is step back and consider history to establish context. Often, US stock markets have delivered positive returns in the year following major conflicts. ▪️ In the notable instances when they haven’t, the economy was already weak when the conflict began. But today, we believe the US economy remains in a relative position of strength. ▪️No one knows how long the current situation will last, but exposure to oil and other commodities may help hedge the risks of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. ▪️ Our strategists are looking closely for signs of strain in our preferred indicators and reminding ourselves that long-term investing requires sticking with a plan even when the crowd gets nervous. Read our complete weekly market commentary. inves.co/40FjCOV

It’s helpful for investors to remember that for markets, what’s most important isn’t the quantity of news headlines, but whether or not they were expected. ➡️ Tariff decision: Expected. The tariffs that President Trump enacted last year under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were struck down in a 6-3 ruling by the US Supreme Court on Friday. Was that a shock? Not particularly. Our global market strategists now expect the Office of the US Trade Representative to pivot to a plan B. ➡️ US-Iran: Expected. Tensions have been rising between the US and Iran, but this wasn’t a surprise. These risks have been well-signaled for some time. They don’t expect these developments to derail global stock markets or end the business cycle. ➡️ Economic data: Somewhat unexpected. US gross domestic product (GDP) was weaker than expected, and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) somewhat hotter. They’d expect inflation to moderate over time, however, as productivity gains from artificial intelligence become more evident. And they don’t believe this changes the trajectory for the Federal Reserve. Read our complete weekly market commentary. inves.co/4kV2zl4

Using a Super Bowl analogy, it feels like a “heads I win, tails I win” market environment. On one side, weaker growth increases the likelihood of earlier or deeper Federal Reserve (Fed) easing. On the other side, stronger growth reinforces the view that the business cycle remains intact. Either outcome can be supportive of markets, provided inflation stays contained. Read our complete weekly market commentary: inves.co/4tHHm20

Silver linings seemed in short supply last week as silver prices plunged — along with gold, bitcoin, and software stocks. But there were some. Our global market strategists shine a light on them in this week’s market commentary: ▪️ The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed meaningfully into expansionary territory, and the prices-paid measure remained essentially unchanged over the prior three months. For a stock market and a Federal Reserve seeking steady activity without reignited inflation pressure, that combination is about as favorable as one could hope for. ▪️ Corporate earnings reports are revealing ambitious AI investment plans for the coming year, which should support continued strength in companies tied to semiconductors and the construction of advanced data centers. ▪️ Industrial firms reported solid results that pointed to ongoing momentum in areas such as transportation equipment, machinery, and power technology. Energy companies also delivered strong performance. ▪️ Most sectors within the S&P 500, broadly speaking, have remained positive for the year. Stock markets outside the US have also held on to gains. Read the complete weekly market commentary inves.co/4akaYcN

Two key risks were highlighted in our 2026 investment outlook: Federal Reserve independence and an artificial intelligence bubble. Last week offered some clarity on both with the nomination of Kevin Warsh to serve as the next chair of the Federal Reserve and the market’s reaction to earnings from Meta and Microsoft. inves.co/4kiidXq

The outlook for stocks still looks promising to our Chief Global Market Strategist, Brian Levitt, despite the daily onslaught of negative headlines on the Federal Reserve independence, Greenland, and ongoing geopolitical maneuvering. His key takeaways in his latest #AbovetheNoise: ▪️ Bullish on stocks - Markets are broadening despite the incessant noise from ongoing geopolitical maneuvering and Fed independence. ▪️ US Treasuries - We maintain our view that investors will likely gradually diversify away from US assets, suggesting continued US dollar weakness. ▪️ AI perspective - Artificial intelligence has challenges that require thoughtful regulation, but the potential benefits may be extraordinary. Get more in the latest edition of #AbovetheNoise. inves.co/49Xm5IE

“Nothing changes on New Year’s Day.” This famous line from a 1983 U2 song captures a truth often overlooked in financial markets — while the calendar may flip, the underlying macro and market trends rarely undergo dramatic shifts overnight. 2026 has begun much like 2025 ended: Broadening of markets continued, as global stock markets continued their upward trajectory, supported by expected strong earnings growth, anchored inflation expectations, and optimism around potential central bank policy easing. Our key takeaways from this week’s market commentary: • Energy markets - It’s unlikely that Venezuelan oil production rises meaningfully for years, and Middle East oil flow is unlikely to be disrupted. • Tariffs - The US Supreme Court delayed ruling on the legality of tariffs issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. • Economic resilience - Last week’s data releases reminded us that the US economy entered 2026 on a sound — perhaps even improved — footing Read the complete weekly market commentary. inves.co/45OuDjG Invesco Distributors, Inc.

The news that broke on Sunday — the potential use of the justice system against a sitting Federal Reserve Chair — introduced a new and material challenge for risk assets, at least in the near term, until greater clarity emerges around how this situation will ultimately play out. The key takeaways from our global market strategists: • New investigation: Recent news indicates that the Department of Justice is opening an investigation into the Federal Reserve Chair. • New risks: We believe this introduces a new and material challenge for risk assets, at least in the near term, until greater clarity emerges. • Market implications: We may see upward pressure on interest rates, which would likely weigh on US stock valuations and pressure the US dollar. Read the complete weekly market commentary. inves.co/4qnyo86

Our framework suggests improving global growth. In January, we’re overweighting stocks with a tilt toward cyclicals, value, and small-to-mid caps. Get our timely investment ideas, allocation guidance, and tips to help optimize your portfolios in our monthly playbook ⏰: inves.co/3Z26nXp

Throughout 2025, there were clear storylines that captivated our attention: The question of Federal Reserve independence, the dominance of the Magnificent 7, and the trajectory of rates, to name a few. But the numbers don’t always match the narratives. In his final Above the Noise of 2025, Brian Levitt, our Chief Global Market Strategist, focuses on some of these themes. • Investors have been told to worry about Kevin Hassett becoming Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, because he’d be the first to come directly from a senior White House position without prior service as a Fed governor. But the market doesn’t appear particularly concerned about that possibility. • Many assume that the market’s success hinges on the Magnificent 7 stocks, but that narrative doesn’t match the numbers. Five of these stocks lagged the S&P 500 so far this year. Market strength appears far broader than the story suggests. • Will Fed rate cuts cause mortgage rates to fall? Many assume so, but when we compare the historical relationship between the fed funds, US 10-year Treasury, and mortgage rates, the math suggests that mortgages could stay over 6%. Get more in the latest edition of #AbovetheNoise. inves.co/3Y9U0Ze

Has the catalyst for stock diversification arrived? For investors looking to diversify their mega-cap technology exposure, improved growth and lower interest rates may be good reasons. Here are the key takeaways from our weekly market commentary. • Case for diversification: We’re not suggesting the AI trade is over, but we believe the environment is conducive to diversifying within the US markets. • Looking for catalysts: For months, there hasn’t been a catalyst to spark investors to consider diversifying within the US stock market. • Times may be changing: Improved growth and Federal Reserve (Fed) easing could be meaningful developments for investors waiting for a reason to diversify. Read the complete weekly market commentary. inves.co/4qel4m0

Happy holidays from Invesco! May this holiday season bring comfort and joy to you and yours as we look forward to rethinking what's possible together in 2026.

The Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF (QSOL) is live. Invest in the blockchain built for speed, scale, and the future of finance. Explore QSOL here: inves.co/4pASF9F Get the prospectus here: inves.co/3KXWBSV

Our framework suggests improving growth. In December, we’re overweighting stocks with a tilt toward value and small-and mid-caps. ⏰ Get our timely investment ideas, allocation guidance, and tips to help optimize your portfolios in our monthly playbook: inves.co/4puwOR6

An interest rate cut this week, which markets are pricing in despite Federal Reserve board member differences, and an expected improving economy in 2026, could support stocks. Our global market strategists’ key takeaways from this week’s market commentary. • Fed whiplash: Short-term policy uncertainty created volatility, with downturns in small-cap stocks, crypto, and non-profitable tech names. • December rate cut: Those calling for a rate cut in December can point to additional data to support one, with weakness in jobs and manufacturing. • Support for stocks: Lower rates and our expectation of an improving economy in 2026 may provide a supportive backdrop for stocks in the US. Read our latest market commentary. inves.co/3MQjmsm

After a midcycle slowdown, we see the global economy picking up speed in 2026. Why? Financial conditions are improving, policy support is strengthening, and central banks are adjusting. This creates a risk-positive backdrop that could shape opportunities across markets. Explore our full 2026 Annual Investment Outlook for the insights that matter in the year ahead: inves.co/4aogZXA

In honor of Thanksgiving and the end-of-year holiday season, our global market strategists turned down the volume of the fear-inducing 24-hour news cycle and instead focused on some good news. Here are 10 things that investors can be thankful for this year.inves.co/49ZEupZ

Diversification We believe the best stock opportunities may lie outside of the mega-cap area and reinforce the need for diversification. Read our latest market commentary. inves.co/43oEThs

Keeping perspective Drawdowns are a normal part of long-term investing. We don’t expect this one to be sustained as fundamentals remain strong.

Our global market strategists have been asked one question more than any other in 2025. Is the AI trade a bubble? It’s a question that naturally calls for a yes-or-no answer, but it needs more nuance. In short, though, we don’t think this is a classic bubble — yet. The takeaways from this week’s market commentary: